Posted on 09/07/2020 5:46:17 PM PDT by Nostradumbass
We developed a linear regression model to predict, and then confirm, the Covid-19 herd immunity threshold (HIT) for the US. Having achieved US HIT, new daily cases and deaths are now in their final descent. Therefore, we can now predict how many total Covid-19 related deaths will occur and when daily new deaths will become negligible.
After the “mostly peaceful” protests began, some states experienced surges in Covid-19 case counts while others did not. This dichotomy signaled that some states had reached their HIT while others were lagging, thereby providing the basis for a forecasting model of the US HIT.
The forecasting model utilized (x) the percentage differential of current daily cases from peak daily cases at the state level and (y) current cumulative cases at the state level to derive a correlation between the two. That correlation was then extrapolated to predict the HIT at the national level.
In other words, the model used state level data to determine the number of cumulative confirmed cases required for US HIT (i.e. the point at which the daily new case count would necessarily begin to decline). The model does not start with an assumption of HIT percentage or of an unconfirmed to confirmed case ratio.
The model determined that the US HIT would be reached at a cumulative confirmed case count of 4.24 million. As a back-check of that HIT level, an assumed HIT of 50% would imply an unconfirmed to confirmed case ratio of 39:1. Thus, the model-derived HIT level passes the smell test.
Herd immunity was always inevitable. Social distancing flattened the curve but also lengthened the curve. When social distancing relaxed, the curve became distorted with the so-called “second wave”. But this second wave also pushed the US past the HIT.
The model predicted that US HIT would be achieved on July 24. The 7-day moving average (MA) of US daily new cases peaked on July 25. The 7-day MA of US daily new deaths peaked soon thereafter on August 4. With each passing day of declining cases, the model is further validated.
Currently the 7-day moving average of daily new cases is 41% below its second wave peak and the 7-day moving average of daily new deaths is 23% below its second wave peak. Both are trending down nicely as would be expected after having achieved HIT. There will be no “third wave”.
The model is now indicating 67% of the US population has achieved immunity (whether due to a prior virus or this one) which implies an unconfirmed to confirmed case ratio of 34:1. This is why daily case count continues to drop, even with the headwind of increasingly relaxed social distancing.
The model is further predicting that US Covid-19 deaths will total 217,000 and that new deaths will be negligible by October 30. That means the US is 89% of the way toward the end of deaths. Some states like New York (which reached HIT earlier than most) are already at or near zero daily deaths.
The Establishment will continue to deny that we have reached HIT because the alternative would be having to admit they destroyed the US economy for no good reason. But Sweden’s success in accepting the inevitability of herd immunity is there for all to see. (BTW, Sweden does not require masks.)
Sweden has a lower Covid-19 death rate than does Belgium, Spain, the UK, Italy, AND the US. Sweden’s death rate stands at 577 per million of population while that of the US is now 583! Furthermore, Sweden is essentially done with Covid-19 deaths while the US is not yet there.
Meanwhile, Sweden’s 2q20 GDP decline was 9% while the US 2q20 GDP decline was 34%. Given that the US has a higher Covid-19 death rate, this is a devastating GDP differential. Shutting down the US economy was, at best, the worst economic blunder in history.
Granted, the CDC now admits that only 6% have died from Covid-19 while the other 94% died with Covid-19. And those who died with Covid-19 had an average of 2.6 co-morbidities. Nevertheless, we are simply tracking the trends so we can predict the end of deaths as reported, whether from or with Covid-19.
It looks like Covid-19 related deaths will be negligible before the November 3 Presidential Election. And before a vaccine is available. Stay tuned, Branch Covidians.
***
I concur. In southern Arizona an extremely wicked flu showed up December/January/February. Then when we supposedly peaked in May, people had no symptoms or were mildly sick.
Ultrasensitive tests are detecting FRAGMENTS of viral RNA. The tests have become WAY too sensitive. Most of those positive cases are extremely mild or completely asymptomatic.
You don’t believe in the magic face diaper?
I'm calling this "quasi herd immunity"! :)
(Just summoning the flames)
That’s the “cases” red herring that the media keeps pushing. Who cares how many people test positive (putting aside for the moment the rampant error and fraud in the testing process)? What matters is how many get seriously ill or die from the virus, and that number (again, severely skewed as it is by corrupt reporting) is much lower now.
What I would like to see is not a count of “cases”, or even alleged “covid deaths”, but rather a comparison of total deaths in the U.S., from ALL causes, before the virus arrived and after. It’s easy to manipulate the deaths attributed to the virus (manipulation which has definitely been happening), but very difficult to do the same to total deaths over similar periods of time. I suspect total deaths have changed very little if at all, which if correct would mean that the virus had no significant effect on the average person’s probability of dying.
quasi?
meaning we really don’t understand how it works, but it has run it’s course so we label it.
It is very likely that Covid19 is man made. That is why the CDC was unsure about what to expect.
Idiot Governor Cuomo stated that NOBODY had immunity to it. Which was pure BS from the beginning. Some had immunity to previous Corona virus’s.
This has been a political football from the start. Lots of blame to pass around to the “experts”.
Yes, or they never had a real case of Covid, but had some level of exposure which the body took care of, but never a full blown case. So they made a quick recovery with no symptoms.
It is now said that the tests are too sensitive and have a lot of false positive results.
Long and short? It will run it’s course.
Interesting covid numbers thread
*If* my “mask” were nothing more than a stretchy piece of very open black lace, I would make an iron-on that said that and apply it.
Too perfect.
A couple weeks ago Himself went to the local hospital for an appointment and found ALL the nurses sitting around with their masks hanging around their necks.
He commented on that and they all laughed and said COVID was bullsh*t and that they’d had very few actual cases, this whole time.
This, after the hospital had portable “overflow” tractor trailer buildings set up and the whole panic!!! deal.
The hospital also just received millions in “COVID aid” from the feds.
glad the nurses admit it is a scamdemic
btw have you seen plandemic?
it is very good
“...herd immunity simply means that there are fewer opportunities ...”
fewer opportunities does not equal immunity.
No that is not what the CDC says and please dont misrepresent to make your agenda
The CDC said that only 6% died with Covid and with NO OTHER contributing factor.
Covid was a factor in Covid deaths, but vulnerable people had other contribuing factors, you know, the ones that MADE them vulerable.
Such as asthma, heart disease, diabetes, obesity, cancer, and any chronic diseases.
They did not die of their chronic diseases, they died of Covid. They were MORE VULNERABLE, because of their chronic diseases, but the deaths were from what covid did to their bodies.
To make this about anything else is a lie
Then allow me to explain
In any given FIXED population, there are several responses to an infection.
Group A will get the infection and either will be cured, or survive and develop antibodies - they have immunity
Group B will get a vaccine if it is available and will develop antibodies - they have immunity
Group C will neither get the infection and for what ever reason, do not receive the vaccine - they are NOT immune
Group D will be those in group A or B who loose their immunity - they are NOT immune.
Now remember, we are deal only with a FIXED population. In this scenario if there are enough people in groups A & B and a small enough percent of the population in C & D, then the government / scientist / medical personnel CLAIM “herd immunity”. Understand that no actual immunity is provided to groups C & D. If they are exposed, because they have no immunity, they can get the illness.
Further, the population is no longer fixed at a local or even national level. People travel and someone who is a carrier can and often does, travel into the population bringing the illness back into play. Witness the recent outbreaks of childhood illnesses that were brought back to the US during the recent illegal migration from Latin America,
So if we have achieved “herd immunity”, say well into the 90+ percent, there are still those who can and will get the illness - they are NOT immune. They are relying on a lack of exposure to the illness. If someone exposes them, they are just as likely to get sick as before the so called “herd immunity”.
I know how this works all to well. As a child, I was contra indicated for the small pox vaccine due to a skin condition. During my school years, my district would put out a notice to all of us that could not receive all of our vaccines. I had to ... every year ... reaffirm that I could not receive the vaccine and that I was still not vaccinated.
When I joined the Army at 18, my skin condition had subsided and I was able to get the vaccine then. I am very pro voluntary vaccine. I have traveled the world with my job and I have been vaccinated against just about everything except Japanese Encephalitis.
My point is simply this. The term “herd immunity” is used by the government as a subtle manipulation and is an attempt to get everyone to comply, via social shaming, to getting a vaccine. In fact, there is ONLY individual immunity. Anything else is simply a lack of exposure.
“You don’t believe in the magic face diaper?”
Yes. About like I believe in the tooth fairy!
I did learn from this, though. I learned that most people in this country are gullible as crap and dumb as a brick. Look at all the face diapers when you walk out your front door if you have any doubt!
I learned that I was the guilty one; guilty of giving cretins too much credit. I stupidly thought that people pursued reason and facts and found out that although many do, there are hordes of gullible fools out there who, as you correctly called out, are walking around wearing face diapers. I'm willing to cut everyone slack for the first two weeks but once two days passed and not a single individual in a hazmat suit started collecting surface swabs in transit hubs, it was clearly a scam.
I think it's Emotional Quotient (EQ) as well as Intelligence Quotient(IQ) and that the Dunning-Kruger Effect has been validated on a monumental scale.
I'm at the point that I can't take anyone seriously and don't want to hear anything out of anyone's mouth that they can't PROVE.
There are sub categories within Group A. Group A in total represents about +80% of the population. Though it only takes about 40% to get herd immunity. The concept is simple in the effected area a "pandemic" means all people will be exposed.
99.99999% exposed of that some with fight off the the disease with innate immune system where you get no antibodies. Amnestic response is when your immune system having had prior exposure (most never will never be sick) ramps up very quickly to fight any new encounter.
Given everyone will be exposed the best way to fight a pandemic is to get a low dose of the virus early on. Later strains are usually worse then the first (this is the concept of vaccines. To take a low dose of the virus or a similar virus early to get immunized)
IgG antibody in the body will last for years and your bodies Innate immune system you should be fine for a very long time
Lets say someone had late stages of cancer then caught the flu and died. Did that person die from the flu, cancer or both?
Claiming that person died from the flu and not the cancer is disingenuous.
The real test of the severity of the disease is by looking at the cases that died with no other symptoms. With under 10,000 total in the us of those 80% where of very old.
Statistically that amounts to about 2,000 healthy people died from this disease in the US. As my neighbor says that is about the same number of people that died from 9/11 and we should do everything possible to save more people from this deadly disease. Wear your mask stay at home!
I disagree.
If someone has a chronic disease and dies because they catch the flu, have pnemonia, and their lungs shut down secondary to the pnemonia, they died of the flu exacerbated by the chronic disese.
Anything else is jerking around,
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