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U.S. HERD IMMUNITY ACHIEVED – UPDATE #2
Original analysis | 9/7/20 | Nostradumbass

Posted on 09/07/2020 5:46:17 PM PDT by Nostradumbass

We developed a linear regression model to predict, and then confirm, the Covid-19 herd immunity threshold (HIT) for the US. Having achieved US HIT, new daily cases and deaths are now in their final descent. Therefore, we can now predict how many total Covid-19 related deaths will occur and when daily new deaths will become negligible.

After the “mostly peaceful” protests began, some states experienced surges in Covid-19 case counts while others did not. This dichotomy signaled that some states had reached their HIT while others were lagging, thereby providing the basis for a forecasting model of the US HIT.

The forecasting model utilized (x) the percentage differential of current daily cases from peak daily cases at the state level and (y) current cumulative cases at the state level to derive a correlation between the two. That correlation was then extrapolated to predict the HIT at the national level.

In other words, the model used state level data to determine the number of cumulative confirmed cases required for US HIT (i.e. the point at which the daily new case count would necessarily begin to decline). The model does not start with an assumption of HIT percentage or of an unconfirmed to confirmed case ratio.

The model determined that the US HIT would be reached at a cumulative confirmed case count of 4.24 million. As a back-check of that HIT level, an assumed HIT of 50% would imply an unconfirmed to confirmed case ratio of 39:1. Thus, the model-derived HIT level passes the smell test.

Herd immunity was always inevitable. Social distancing flattened the curve but also lengthened the curve. When social distancing relaxed, the curve became distorted with the so-called “second wave”. But this second wave also pushed the US past the HIT.

The model predicted that US HIT would be achieved on July 24. The 7-day moving average (MA) of US daily new cases peaked on July 25. The 7-day MA of US daily new deaths peaked soon thereafter on August 4. With each passing day of declining cases, the model is further validated.

Currently the 7-day moving average of daily new cases is 41% below its second wave peak and the 7-day moving average of daily new deaths is 23% below its second wave peak. Both are trending down nicely as would be expected after having achieved HIT. There will be no “third wave”.

The model is now indicating 67% of the US population has achieved immunity (whether due to a prior virus or this one) which implies an unconfirmed to confirmed case ratio of 34:1. This is why daily case count continues to drop, even with the headwind of increasingly relaxed social distancing.

The model is further predicting that US Covid-19 deaths will total 217,000 and that new deaths will be negligible by October 30. That means the US is 89% of the way toward the end of deaths. Some states like New York (which reached HIT earlier than most) are already at or near zero daily deaths.

The Establishment will continue to deny that we have reached HIT because the alternative would be having to admit they destroyed the US economy for no good reason. But Sweden’s success in accepting the inevitability of herd immunity is there for all to see. (BTW, Sweden does not require masks.)

Sweden has a lower Covid-19 death rate than does Belgium, Spain, the UK, Italy, AND the US. Sweden’s death rate stands at 577 per million of population while that of the US is now 583! Furthermore, Sweden is essentially done with Covid-19 deaths while the US is not yet there.

Meanwhile, Sweden’s 2q20 GDP decline was 9% while the US 2q20 GDP decline was 34%. Given that the US has a higher Covid-19 death rate, this is a devastating GDP differential. Shutting down the US economy was, at best, the worst economic blunder in history.

Granted, the CDC now admits that only 6% have died from Covid-19 while the other 94% died with Covid-19. And those who died with Covid-19 had an average of 2.6 co-morbidities. Nevertheless, we are simply tracking the trends so we can predict the end of deaths as reported, whether from or with Covid-19.

It looks like Covid-19 related deaths will be negligible before the November 3 Presidential Election. And before a vaccine is available. Stay tuned, Branch Covidians.

***


TOPICS: Government; Health/Medicine; Science
KEYWORDS: covid19; creativemath; herdimmunity; hielastnight
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To: taxcontrol

You make no sense when I read your post.


21 posted on 09/07/2020 6:46:02 PM PDT by impimp
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To: icclearly

I cannot believe how many people walk, jog and DRIVE around with ma-a-a-sks on.


22 posted on 09/07/2020 6:51:53 PM PDT by Phillyred
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To: Nostradumbass
Scam from day one.

Freep fear was all part of it.

23 posted on 09/07/2020 6:58:08 PM PDT by shanover (...To disarm the people is the best and most effectual way to enslave them.-S.Adams)
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To: cherry

Vaccinations give less immunity than contracting the disease and surviving. Don’t listen to the propaganda that a shot gives better protection than being infected and surviving.


24 posted on 09/07/2020 7:11:13 PM PDT by Glad2bnuts (“If there are no absolutes by which to judge society, then society is absolute.” Francis Schaeffer)
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To: TigersEye

Where’s that chart from, if you don’t mind me asking? It looks pretty close to what I’ve imagined, but I’ve pictured the rest of the US being about twice what this graph shows.


25 posted on 09/07/2020 7:16:55 PM PDT by FamiliarFace
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To: taxcontrol

Many people exposed had no symptoms but body defended against the virus. This will pass. All of the data is bogus because testing is not uniform, antibody testing is not accurate, Money is driving the classification and none of the CDC numbers are truly accurate.

I also believe that the virus has mutated in some locations and is not as hard for our immune systems to handle.

Deaths are down, in some places, Way Down.

The panic is over. (except for the election)


26 posted on 09/07/2020 7:22:58 PM PDT by Texas Fossil ((Texas is not where you were born, but a Free State of Heart, Mind & Attitude!))
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To: FamiliarFace
I found it on twitter. Here's another one that lists each state separately instead of lumping all the "other" states into one graph line.

It came from this website ... Over 1 Out of Every 1000 People in NY and NJ Die From Covid-19

27 posted on 09/07/2020 7:31:17 PM PDT by TigersEye (Leftist mentality is a multitude of fictions that can't be questioned.)
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To: Nostradumbass

“Nostradumbass:” Finally an authority we can appeal to with great confidence.


28 posted on 09/07/2020 7:35:40 PM PDT by Fester Chugabrew (I'd rather have a rude President than a polite tyrant.)
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To: TigersEye

Thank you ...so much!


29 posted on 09/07/2020 7:37:59 PM PDT by FamiliarFace
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To: Trumpisourlastchance
Not where I live. Record numbers being infected each day.

Where do you live? in a Wuhan bat cave?

I believe no state had a record high in infections today.

Generally speaking most states have been trending down over the last six weeks. There are a few stragglers such as MO, MN, ND, SD and a few others that are justing hitting their highs over the last for weeks.

30 posted on 09/07/2020 7:38:14 PM PDT by FreeReign
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To: icclearly

The Greatest Hoax
Perpetrated on
Planet Earth!
.
Thanks.


31 posted on 09/07/2020 7:39:05 PM PDT by Big Red Badger (TRUMP, the Other guy lives in a Basement!)
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To: TigersEye

What’s the date on that graph? It looks old to me.


32 posted on 09/07/2020 7:43:10 PM PDT by FreeReign
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To: FamiliarFace
Here is a better site with up to date stats and all fifty states.

Death rates from coronavirus (COVID-19) in the United States as of September 7, 2020, by state

They go by 'deaths per 100k' instead of per million but just multiply by ten to get the comparable figure.

33 posted on 09/07/2020 7:44:07 PM PDT by TigersEye (Leftist mentality is a multitude of fictions that can't be questioned.)
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To: FreeReign

It had no date on it. See post #33 for a Sept. 7th graph.


34 posted on 09/07/2020 7:49:16 PM PDT by TigersEye (Leftist mentality is a multitude of fictions that can't be questioned.)
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To: TigersEye

Great, thanks again.


35 posted on 09/07/2020 7:51:45 PM PDT by FamiliarFace
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To: FamiliarFace

You’re welcome. No problem at all.


36 posted on 09/07/2020 7:53:27 PM PDT by TigersEye (Leftist mentality is a multitude of fictions that can't be questioned.)
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To: TigersEye

Actually, that’s a nice graph to see state by state comparisons to date.


37 posted on 09/07/2020 7:55:23 PM PDT by FamiliarFace
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To: TigersEye
Yes thanks, that one looks about right.

I think the other one was from around Mid May.

38 posted on 09/07/2020 7:57:50 PM PDT by FreeReign
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To: FamiliarFace
I liked it too. Today I put together some numbers from my own county in CO.

Population of the county I live in - 356,899
Percentage of pop. Covid+ - 5.7%
Percentage of population dead from Covid-19 - 0.0124%
Percentage of population tested - 20.6%

County survival rate (not counting unknown cases) - 97.8%

But we still have to wear masks and endure our "parent's" constant lecturing about distancing, washing hands, no farting in public, wiping with toilet paper, sanitizing everything in sight with strontium 90 ... the same as where you live I presume.

39 posted on 09/07/2020 8:07:16 PM PDT by TigersEye (Leftist mentality is a multitude of fictions that can't be questioned.)
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To: 9YearLurker

We have a large extended family. Some are Hispanic and are diabetic with other health issues. They are not young. The 40 year old tested negative with mild symptoms. Why do we think she had it? Her two kids tested positive. One is 7 and the other is 17. Her mother in law was infected with mild symptoms and multiple comorbitidities. Neither husband tested positive or had symptoms after sleeping with their wives. The brother in his mid 60’s tested positive with pneumonia but no coughing and no fever. Truly no symptoms other than a xray. Other side of the family all skinny, Anglo and marathon runners had mild symptoms.


40 posted on 09/07/2020 8:10:41 PM PDT by FoundinTexas
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