Posted on 05/05/2020 7:44:59 AM PDT by grundle
Sweden did not have a lockdown.
Experts predicted that it would have 40,000 COVID-19 deaths by May 1.
The actual number was 2,769.
The Telegraph just reported:
How Sweden suppressed infection rates without a lockdown
Denmark locked down hard and early, shutting schools, borders, cafés, restaurants and shops. Sweden has taken a light-touch approach, shutting none of these things, and instead relying on the public’s “common sense behaviour”.
If the R number is 1, it means that each person infected goes on to infect an average of one other person during the course of their illness. So long as a country keeps R below one, the number of infections will steadily decrease until the pandemic comes to an end.
The Public Health Institute of Sweden estimated that Sweden’s R number has fallen from 1.4 at the start of April to 0.85 at the end of April.
Denmark’s SSI infectious diseases agency, meanwhile, estimated that Denmark’s had fallen from about 1 at the start of April to about 0.9 at the end of April.
Sweden’s numbers are a standing rebuke to the Imperial College study that has done so much to influence UK policy. Researchers at the university predicted that Sweden’s approach would leave it with an R of above 3, leading to 40,000 coronavirus deaths by May 1. Sweden’s current death tally is just 2,769.
Uno Wennergren, a mathematician and pandemic modeller at Linköping University, suspects Sweden’s low number in part comes from growing levels of immunity in Stockholm, where the outbreak has so far been concentrated, and in part from social distancing.
“It looks like its a combination of herd immunity effect and lower infectability. Both seem to be acting simultaneously,” he said.
Sweden’s state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell now estimates that as many as a quarter of people in Stockholm might already be immune. The capital might have herd immunity within weeks, he argues.
Three happy cheers for Sweden.
More bad news for fearpers
MORE PROOF.
Open things up.
Protect the most vulnerable.
Allow the virus to work it’s way thru the young and strong.
It almost sounds as if we didn’t need to throw 30-50 million people out of work, create a Depression and destroy the Greatest Economy in World History. But Hey, Our Public Masters have showed us all what they are made of and how they will respond to the next Fake Crisis.
We need to follow the Swedish model.
With government's action or without government action.
The difference may well be that one country washed their hands more often or do not socialize in the same way.
Sweden’s numbers are on the high side, in terms of just about everything: cases per million, deaths per million, etc. It ranks up among some of the more affected states in the US.
In addition, I just saw today that Sweden already has a culture of social distancing, so that some of the measures that a government would have taken to impose social distancing were already embedded in people’s behaviors.
In any case, Sweden is not a shining example of a country that allowed life to go on as usual despite a killer virus that spreads as easily as the common cold.
Yes, that death total, scaled up to the US population’s size is over 100,000 and still climbing.
So, um, when do WE open back up totally? Huh?
Or incapable of doing anything other than bitching on the Internet ....
I would GLADLY trade what we have done for what Sweden is doing.
Slightly worse early numbers in exchange for an economy that largely remained open and where civil liberties weren’t trampled?
Yes please!!
No reports should be believed.....politics are running very high with nation leaders standing to gain or loose in how they play their numbers.
“Experts predicted that it would have 40,000 COVID-19 deaths by May 1.”
_______________________________
Those pesky models always seem to be wrong. Wrong in a way that seems meant to promote fear and panic.
Exactly!
And the number of deaths would’ve been lower if they had treated patients with The Trump Pills right away. I wonder how many were treated with them.
If you look at the actual Swedish numbers, of 2700 dead, 2400 are people 70+, and about 2000 are 80+. In the sense where it is a cause of death for people who were going to die soon anyway, it is very flu-like.
The WHO and CDC now recommend everyone wear a blindfold to protect from seeing what’s really going on
There is no lower form of scum than a Democrat.
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