Posted on 04/12/2020 8:16:11 PM PDT by GuavaCheesePuff
A week ago, I posted Early Observations on the Pandemic and Population Density, which suggested that the more worrying experience with the COVID-19 virus in the New York City metropolitan area could result from more intense person-to-person contacts:
…the risk of infection is a function of being close to people who are infected.The most fundamental issue is thus, how close people are to one-another in their daily lives. The risk of infection can be expected to be higher where there are very high densities whether in residences, transport or employment locations.
Jason Fox of Bloomberg, countered that weighted “metropolitan area” densities did not support my observations. It is true that the weighted metropolitan density of New York is only a bit more than double that of San Francisco and Los Angeles. He could have made his point even stronger using US Census Bureau urban area densities showing Los Angeles to be the densest, (2,700 per square kilometer or 7,000 per square mile, San Francisco second (2,400/6,300) and San Jose to be denser than the New York urban area (2,100/5,300). However this was not the subject of Preliminary Observations, which dealt with density at the personal level.
(Excerpt) Read more at newgeography.com ...
You’ve also got multi-family dwellings, illegal housing, tenements, elevators, stairwells.
NYC is a vertical city.
I wonder how much the census has to do with this.
Dems need warm bodies and voters. They don’t care how they get them.
“NYC is a vertical city.”
And...there it is! Yup. Subways and elevators. Great way to spread it. LA not so much. Plus sunshine! NYC people are Casper white, year round. Even Lilly white ppl from LA are tan.
This is so interesting. Thanks for finding it and posting it!
“Can anyone explain why Fauci and the rest of the experts has not discussed this?”
I agree with your post, but since it wasn’t discussed during SARS (as far as I remember), why would any of our experts consider it here?
The subway in New York is a hyper-efficient disease vector besides being the most filthy public transportation I’ve seen anywhere in the world, both the stations and the trains. Then there are the commuter trains and buses that come in from Long Island, Westchester County, Rockland County, southwestern Connecticut, and New Jersey. All these crowded transportation venues spread the virus like no other city and its environs.
It could still be used could it not ? If we can get enough (non Chinese) appropriate masks and open up the country. And get rid of narow minded control freak bureaucrats.
“It could still be used could it not ? If we can get enough (non Chinese) appropriate masks and open up the country. And get rid of narow minded control freak bureaucrats.”
Of course, I’m just commenting on the degree of closed-mindedness of our ‘medical experts’. These idiots thought the virus would be no different than SARS...simply because SARS was the last time we had something like this - no other reason.
This has always been understood with person-to-person transmissible infections - greater population density translates to more infections per X number of people.
This should have translated into flexible, as opposed to one-size-fits all shutdowns and “social distancing” relative to greater or lesser population densities.
Can we fire all sitting state and federal office holders, for being panic driven and not logical?
I totally agree - mass transit/ giant petri dishes. Bad enough when there’s no virus; terrible now. And still they keep them open.
Yes the math is good. Estimates. Hard to gather data from the 5 boroughs, but he is a thorough scientist.
But the infection rates are lowest in Manhattan, the most vertical, densest borough.
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