Posted on 04/12/2020 1:26:02 PM PDT by grundle
In any case, if these small fractions are reasonably accurate, then clearly the society-wide lockdown approach is too heavy handed and what is needed is a more “agile” system of identifying those at higher risk, isolating only them from the rest of us, and providing more concentrated assistance to them before, during and after infection.
Obviously old-age care homes represent the most dangerous target environment. The society-wide lockdown does almost nothing of any actual use to their survival chances, other than perhaps slightly reducing the numbers of infected care workers entering the homes. To reduce the numbers of infected visitors, all that needs to be done is to ban visitors.
Then with other groups of high-risk potential victims, it would be up to them to self-identify and take reasonable precautions. At this rate of mortality vs infection, a total lockdown of the society at large is not only unreasonable, it seems dangerous in unleashing potentially worse side effect medical problems over the full duration.
With the lockdown still something of a novelty and taking place in a season earlier than the peak outdoor recreation season, people are probably for the time being adjusting, and the social program response may seem hopeful, but a few months into this, people are going to be taking a much different view of being confined to quarters or with very few outlets available if they do venture out.
For the rather minimal benefits realized (especially once the more agile response is deployed) this society-wide lockdown needs to end soon. I would say first half of May allow things to return to normal in stages. Perhaps wait longer in a few places like the metro NYC region. There is no rational reason for a one-size-fits-all response in the varied geographic regions of North America.
Not good at math, eh? I’m a FluBro and this is embarrassing to see. Iceland has roughly 35,000 tests. 1,700 confirmed cases. 39 hospitalized (currently) with 9 currently in intensive care. 8 deaths.
8/1700 = 0.0047. Times 100 = 0.47%.
Not worth shutting everything down, but still....TRY to do the math right.
ver notice that all the fear mongering since day one is over what “will happen in the future”? We’ll we’re in “the future” and they are still trying to scare us with what “could happen in the future”.
Everything was hunky-dory in the U.S. on December 6, 1941.
Haven’t seen the 20,000 number. I know they’ll lie to try and justify the terrible decision they made about shutting part of the country down ECT. Through out the country there are very few cases and very few deaths.
“Over 36,000 have been tested. At least fifty percent had it with no symptoms...7/18000 is indeed .0004”
NO! JUST NO!
35,000 tests - about 10% of their population. 1,700 confirmed cases. 39 hospitalized (currently) with 9 currently in intensive care. 8 deaths.
Your personal experience is meaningless.
Also when comparing Iceland and UK data, the raw data show one thing quite clearly, the per capita death rate is much higher in the UK than in Iceland. If they were the same, then (7/357,000 x 66.5 million) would have died in the UK and that is only about 1300 rather than the stated number approaching 9,000.
The Icelandic death toll applied to the USA (assuming population 1000 times greater) is 7,000. Applied to Canada it would be about 700. This is closer to the actual total in just Quebec province alone. Applied to B.C. it would be around 80 and we have had a little over 100, so against the odds B.C. has been responding at almost the same low rate as Iceland. Our provincial government were faster to respond than some and instituted one-care-home working rules earlier to lower the spread. However, as they acknowledge, two factors assisted that fall into the luck category. One was that our school break was later and further into the travel restriction phase, keeping our families at home more. And also, the graphic news coming out of nearby Seattle early in the pandemic was more urgently noted by our province with the common border, than further east in Canada.
Wow. Someone on a blog puts out numbers.
My neighbor, the school teacher has some thoughts too...
Very misleading. Icelanders are generally very standoffish with strangers and don’t tend to loiter in grocery aisles at over 300 pounds each in groups.
As of this morning, the worldwide death rate is 6.149%. The US death rate is 3.888%. This is a LOT higher than the seasonal influenza death rate. It’s even higher than the 1917-1919 H1N1 influenza pandemic death rate.
Don’t take this lightly. If we stop the efforts to control the spread, millions will die.
The 3.88 is based on those who were in the hospital. Of those who go to the hospital I believe more die from the flu. Over 6%.
... Your personal experience is meaningless.
Perhaps, it is only real to me. But I’ve worked in hospitals for >33yrs, and very aware of local phenomena, the deaths have been... personal and effected all the workers here. We will see how COVID antibody population studies pan out.
The average time is not turning out to be 23 days
No. They said fifty percent had it and were asymptomatic. They have to be counted to because they tested positive
... makes me wonder if the horrific videos we saw coming from China were fabricated(?) That leads to thought of international conspiracy.
The average time is not turning out to be 23 days
Link?
7/1600 = 0.004375 (~0.004)
7/160 = 0.04375 (~0.04)
My calculator doesn’t have a sticky 0 key
It’s an election year with an incumbent republican. And they ran out of sex things, impeachment possibilities, back tax returns, mass shootings, his son for speaking his mind, his racial comments (bigoted), his choices for judges...this gives me a headache. I need a nap.
rwood
Because people who have severe cases and weren’t getting hydroxychloroquine plus Z Pak and perhaps sink very few were recovering that is no longer the case
There seems to now be treatment that works
Most people do not get the severe case. My nurse friends tell me that those who have severe cases are very rapid in their decline
The Judge stated that there were 12 x=cases, assumed confirmed by testing. If there were 12 confirmed cases, that means they likely sought care and were tested as a result of symptoms.
Logic dictates that of course there are quite a few more people who have been exposed, had minor or no symptoms or had serious symptoms but did not seek medical help, lets say for every 1 confirmed case at hospital, there were five more who got mildly ill, 5 more who had no symptoms and maybe 2 who had pretty serious illness but did not seek medical help, so for every one confirmed, lets say 13 more also had been infected etc. So, if my SWAG ( more science than the US Dept of Health I think) is anywhere near accurate, then 12 times 12 means 144 at that time could have been infected or suck of covid19 to some degree not including those who wen to hospital. Now, roll that up over time, say, each week since the first confirmed case, that ratio of 12 to 144 carried on, some in a few weeks the county could have possibly have had 500 exposed, but only 12 confirmed.
Of course, my math is just conjecture. this is why Iceland study of widespread testing makes sense while modeling in a math program means nothing but fear, overreaction and useless and harmful political maneuverings.
Lets test 10 percent of population randomly in every area, say a million tests. I bet the rate of antibodies shows that many many more of us have had covid19 and survived, thinking we had a bug or a cold or maybe flu.
Then run the numbers based on what we know from CDC reporting etc and come up with a real risk, then proceed to hang the fools advising our POTUS and get America turning and burning again. As it should have been since Marches Madness.
Sorry for the typos, cell phones scuk for accuracie.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.