Posted on 04/09/2020 2:55:29 PM PDT by nickcarraway
The Swedish experiment continues to be one of the most interesting things happening in the world right now. Pretty much every other country in the world, including Sweden’s neighbors Denmark and Norway, have adopted similar types of government-ordered social distancing. But in Sweden, the country is merely asking people to be sensible and hoping that’s enough to slow the spread of the virus.
Anders Tegnell, the head epidemiologist at the semi-independent agency that is managing the Swedish response has denied that he is pursuing a herd immunity strategy but has previously said in an interview “We will not be able to control it in any other way.”
The Swedish response appears almost libertarian at first glance, but it isn’t based on trusting individuals so much as it is on trusting that most Swedes will do what the government recommends without being forced.
The government was clear, though, that Swedes should adopt the usual social distancing measures to flatten the curve. And experts told me the population typically trusts what officials say and abides by their guidelines, allowing officials not to have to impose strict measures.
Top Swedish officials say that two-way trust is paying off. “It is a myth that life goes on as normal in Sweden. Many people stay at home and have stopped traveling,” Sweden’s Minister of Health and Social Affairs Lena Hallengren told me. “There is no full lockdown of Sweden, but many parts of the Swedish society have shut down.”
In addition to this high level of trust in government, the Washington Post reports that “public health nationalism” has taken hold with many Swedes.
In the past few weeks, the country has experienced a bizarre nationalistic wave dubbed “public health nationalism” (”folkhälsonationalism”), which celebrates Sweden as an island of common sense in a sea of panic and resistance to science. According to this narrative promulgated by authorities and media alike, cultural exceptionalism — such as high public trust –– makes Sweden particularly well-equipped to manage the pandemic. When asked why Sweden’s strategy deviates from other countries’, Sweden’s influential former state epidemiologist Johan Giesecke quipped, “That is because everyone else is doing it wrong.” He went on to explain how he could be so confident: ”I think we will manage the epidemic without destroying the economy more than necessary. The absolutely most important thing is to protect the elderly from getting infected. I think we succeed quite well in that. It lies in the Swedish national character to do as one is told.”
And to be clear, the Swedish approach may still have some long term advantages. There simply isn’t enough data to draw conclusions at this point about what the trade-offs will be. It’s entirely possible that if we’re still locked in our homes three months from now and U.S. unemployment is above 30 percent, the Swedish approach may come to look like the wiser choice to some people.
But in the short term, it’s starting to look as if the Swedish approach will result in an increased death toll and overwhelmed hospitals, i.e. the very thing the U.S. and other countries are trying to avoid:
A head doctor at a major hospital in Sweden says the current approach will “probably end in a historical massacre.” He says healthcare workers at his hospital who have tested positive for the virus but are asymptomatic have been advised to continue working. He asked to remain anonymous because “it is frowned upon to speak of the epidemic or to go against the official vision” but said he felt a need to speak out from an “ethical and medical point of view.”
The Swedish legislature will meet this week to discuss whether tougher measures restricting business and travel should be implemented. Söderberg-Nauclér says it’s already too late to prevent chaos in Stockholm but that preventative lockdown measures could still be taken throughout other parts of the country.
“If they are right and we are wrong, I will open a bottle of champagne,” Söderberg-Nauclér says. She notes that, based on the modeling she’s seen, the healthcare system in Sweden will collapse if stricter measures are not adopted immediately. “But I will not give up the fight until the government shows us evidence for their strategy.”
A Swedish virologist told Vox, “I didn’t sign my informed consent for this experiment.” That’s really what this is: A nationwide experiment that we’re all watching play out in real time. The legislature may decide to clamp down this week and put an end to the experiment but it may already be too late to avoid a disaster. As of today, Sweden has 9,141 confirmed cases and 793 deaths. Denmark has 5,830 confirmed cases and 237 deaths.
This PBS report, published yesterday, gives some good insight into the Swedish approach including resistance to it from within Sweden:
Sorry it wasn’t more clear. I was attempting to show the contrast.
People should index for timing differences. Absent that, if you multiply Sweden's numbers by 32 (i.e., the ratio of US to SE population), you get 292.5M cases and 25.4M deaths; the US as of now stands at 456.8M and 16.3M, respectively.
Way to early to tell. Wait till this time next year.
There are so many scare monger big government statists and fascists loving people on FR lately, I have considered giving my OPUS and bailing. It seems like 75% go with the “we’re all going to die” narrative.
Its truly sad to see. I’ll been here over 20 years and wonder what the heck happened?
It was a great post, no worries. A lot of info.
[Doubt it. Most of their immigrants are healthy young men of Prime Jihadi age. This is more likely to clear out the old white Swedes clogging up their medical system. ]
Even deaths can be covered up because a lot of people who die are going to be elderly who haven’t been tested and they’re not planning to test most of the dead. Curiously the people who are dying after being tested positive are disproportionately migrants
https://www.thelocal.se/20200310/timeline-how-the-coronavirus-has-developed-in-sweden
“Thirty-three people have died so far after testing positive for the new coronavirus, including 15 in Stockholm. Of those, at least six were Somali-Swedes, a board member of an association for Somali-Swedish medical doctors in Sweden told public broadcaster SVT’s current affairs programme Agenda.”
Instead of locking down they country they simply advised people on social distancing and a lot of the “new Swedes” decided to just ignore the advice. They’re blaming language skills and lack of information but mysteriously the lack of language skills doesn’t seem to hurt East Asian and East European migrants in the same way. I’m seeing various migrant groups behave in rather different ways on the streets of supposedly locked down Helsinki, too, and it’s all very predictable.
I suspect that it turns out that Sweden is in fact doing it right that shielding the elderly instead of shutting down the economy is better in the end but it doesn’t mean that the disease is sparing Sweden or that the low numbers mean anything, to the contrary, they’ve decided to let it spread and to keep their estimates of the real number secret. We’ll maybe know them after the epidemic once they start publishing studies – but only if it does turn out to be the right bet.
If corona turns out to be deadlier then it will be the thing that pops the entire “Scandinavian model” bubble. People abroad have been making the mistake of trusting Scandinavian governments and their invented statistics because Scandinavian people are honest in person.]
Hot Air allright.
“They might be wiping out the immigrants with this plan.”
I was wondering they were doing that. France will not help their no-go zones.
About same as Michigan, my state. In 2019 had population of 9.9M.
Not reading the article is something they share with many Freepers.
Confirmed in Sweden would be only a small % of people who actually have it. A large percentage of the 54,000 tests are are probably healthcare workers tested multiple times.
Tiny Singapore has done more testing than Sweden and its mostly for keeping healthcare workers CCV free.
By now, in Sweden, at least 500,00 people have it. It spreads too fast to think otherwise.
If that is true (and it is certainly plausible), their fatality count should rise soon. This is why I stopped following confirmed cases, because testing and other things can infect (no pun intended) that data. Of course, including people who died in a car crash but tested positive for COVID-19 as a Coronavirus fatality also messes things up, but what can you do.
Swedish are huggers and media reports from Sweden are they aren’t doing any widespread testing or contact tracing, so they are planning on everyone getting it, even if they don’t admit it.
We should have great data in 6 months to see the results of various strategies on healthy, homogenous populations between Denmark, Norway, Finland and Sweden. It should be completely washed out of Sweden in 3 months.
Unlike the US, I would bet money that people in end of life Hospice care on “do not resuscitate orders” that contract CCV and die in Sweden aren’t counted in the numbers.
In the end, I doubt Sweden’s true death rate will be anywhere near the US’s. Less that 30% of deaths in NY are white. In the South, Blacks and hispanics are 75% of the deaths.
CCV may be... RACIST!
Mandatory TB inoculations?
So... what I'm taking from this paragraph is no matter what REALLY happens, the Swedish government will make sure that the Swedish people believe that the migrants are "the real victims here," and their fatalities will be made much of.
[So... what I’m taking from this paragraph is no matter what REALLY happens, the Swedish government will make sure that the Swedish people believe that the migrants are “the real victims here,” and their fatalities will be made much of. ]
Exactly! The article says, “no evidence of collapse, but some people think it will happen anyway. And some models say so, too.”
Fauci/Birx and the cabal of Control Freaks wanting socialism are terrified of any example showing we didn’t have to do this insane shutdown. They are all disparaging Sweden.
Time will tell. So far, so good, for Sweden. Yes, they may have higher death rates early, as part of their strategy.
People fail to realize that as long as the care facilities can reasonably keep up, the area under the curve will be the same regardless. Choice is longer, lower curve with economic disaster, or shorter, higher curve without it.
Nobody gave Trump that option. In fact they said it was impossible. Hence their hair on fire attitude towards any state not under complete lockdown. They are scared it will show it wasn’t needed for everyone.
Because it was not.
Wait until one country figures out they can give Hydroxychloroquine to most of their citizens, as a preventative, and everyone go back to work the next day. End of epidemic right there.
Or one state here.
Trump will go bonkers. He was lied to. We all were, and still are.
It’s like watching someone intelligent and healthy and beautiful—but terribly mentally fragile—cutting their own wrists.
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