Posted on 04/09/2020 9:27:44 AM PDT by USA Conservative
One hundred thousand coronavirus deaths in the U.S. is the low estimate.
That figure is the bottom end of the White Houses best-picture scenario of 100,000 to 240,000 deaths, which predicts that the U.S. will hit a peak death rate of more than 2,000 deaths a day in mid-April. President Donald Trump warned that this week in particular would be the toughest.
In the world we can see the whole picture in the table below:
From WorldOMeter: Apr. 8 88,457 6,414 8% Apr. 7 82,043 7,383 10% Apr. 6 74,660 5,227 8% Apr. 5 69,433 4,737 7% Apr. 4 64,696 5,799 10% Apr. 3 58,897 5,715 11% Apr. 2 53,182 5,979 13% Apr. 1 47,203 4,890 12% Mar. 31 42,313 4,537 12% Mar. 30 37,776 3,709 11% Mar. 29 34,067 3,204 10% Mar. 28 30,863 3,518 13%
But is this a reason for a world panic?
We will present to you the list of things that killed more people daily and you can see fro yourself if we need to panic and destroy our economy.
Back in February, There was a post that claimed the there are a lot of things kill more people than the Coronavirus daily. The post reads:
A post comparing Covid-19 death rates to other things that can kill people has been shared thousands of times on Facebook.
One of the worst days so far for Coronavirus was the 10th of February. On that day, 108 persons in CHINA died of coronavirus.
BUT, on that same day
26,283 people died of Cancer
24,641 died of Heart Disease
4,300 people died of Diabetes
and on that day, Suicide, unfortunately, took more lives than the virus did, by 28 times.
Moreover, Mosquitoes kill 2,740 people every day, HUMANS kill 1,300 fellow humans every day, and Snakes kill 137 people every day.
So if we give a good look then there are a lot of other things that we should worry about even if we compare the current numbers.
However, its important to bear in mind that this isnt comparing like with like. A virus can spread and kill people very differently to the other things mentioned. One of the reasons why viral outbreaks attract concern from medical authorities is that they may have the potential to kill many more if they are allowed to spread unchecked. So while its important to put the risks of coronavirus in perspective, raw numbers like these shouldnt necessarily be taken as an indicator of how concerned you should be about any of them.
But lets not forget the fact that also there are a lot of people that have died with the Coronavirus but not from the Coronavirus.
According to the World Health Organisations (WHO) International Agency for Research on Cancer, there were 9.6 million deaths from cancer in 2018. That works out to around 26,000 deaths a day worldwide.
17.9 million people died from all cardiovascular diseases in 2016 according to the WHOthis works out as 49,000 a day, way above the figure given in the Facebook post. Ischaemic heart disease or coronary heart disease specifically was the cause of 9.4 million deaths worldwide in 2016, 25,840 a day, closer to the posts estimate.
In 2016 the WHO estimated that 1.6 million people a year die from factors relating directly to diabetes. This is about 4,400 a day, so the Facebook post is broadly correct.
But, the post overstates the number of people who died by suicide. The WHO estimated there were 800,000 people who died by suicide in 2018, equivalent to around 2,000 per day, while the Facebook post suggests there are closer to 3,000 per day.
The post claims that mosquito-borne diseases kill 2,740 people a day, which works out at a million per year. This also seems an overestimate. The WHO estimates that vector-borne diseases (spread by animals) account for 700,000 deaths per year, of which at least 440,000 are by mosquitos alone through transmitting malaria and dengue fever (around 1,205 per day).
The figure for deaths caused by other humans seems fairly correct looking specifically at homicides. The United Nations Office for Drugs and Crime estimated that in 2017 464,000 died globally from homicide, which is about 1,270 a day. This number would be higher if deaths from war or terrorism were included.
The WHO estimates that up to 137,800 people die each year from snake bites, about 378 a day, or double the number given in the Facebook post. However, they also note that underreporting of snake bites and subsequent deaths is common, so its likely this number could be higher still.
So if we compare the numbers that we have now on a daily basis the Coronavirus still seems like a situation were we overreacted and killed our economy for nothing!
So let get back to our country!
To sum up where we stand today, April 9: Based on the pretext that we must limit the spread of the Wuhan virus, the American economic boom of the past three years has been reversed in a matter of days, millions have lost their jobs, tens of thousands of small businesses have been shuttered and will probably never reopen, and three-quarters of the American population has been subjected to some form of house arrest by state, county and city governments.
All over the country people are being fined or arrested and jailed for violating suddenly imposed restrictions on their every movement and gathering, often with the aid of their neighbors, who turn them in to the police, following instructions on how to be a snitch. Attendance at religious services has been forbidden altogether or limited to ten people, even in vast cathedrals, while permission is granted to crowd supermarkets and convenience stores, buy booze, purchase cannabis and have pets groomed.
Americas almost instantaneous transformation into a police state is based on models that predicted upwards of 2 million deaths from the Wuhan virus without mitigation in the form of a preposterous attempt to quarantine 330 million people. And the people have obsequiously bowed to every ridiculous command.
It is becoming clearer with each passing day that the death toll from the Wuhan virus is not rising exponentially as the experts predicted but only modestly in some places while leveling off or even declining almost everywhere else in the country as well as the world. The incidence of infection borders on nil in the hot and humid countries, where the number of deaths remains in the double or very low triple digits four months after the virus emerged from the Hubei province of China. So tell this to everyone that doubts the numbers.
Decide for yourself, is this a giant hoax or a real pandemic that threatens our very existence.
Scroll down to leave a comment below.
Please share this article wherever you can. It is the only way we can work around their censorship and ensure people receive news about issues that the mainstream media suppress.
“What is your point?
17.9 million people died from all cardiovascular diseases in 2016 “
Must have been a tough year for New York City to have nearly 18 million people die.
Yes, by all means, let's completely destroy what's left of the economy by relying on models created by "experts".
Except I did not mention NYC. You did.
Just to be clear, that is worldwide. Read the article. It’s in there.
This post is not complete without a multicolored hockey stick graph, with lots of numbers on either axis, and up arrows, lots of up arrows.
Not much, but something is better than nothing. And Again, I am not calling for opening up anything now. I posed a hypothetical, if the statistical models by June 1 can estimate that 80% of more of Americans have already been exposed to COVID-19, and are still alive, then those are people that can resume some normal routines. For example, can I go to the Golf course and play golf, well that means, the golf course is back open, that is X amount of people back to work. Can I go to the golf shop and get my clubs re-gripped, well, that is another business that is back open, etc, etc.
So I don’t know what will be ready to open back up, or how much, but some things yes.
But I don’t think right now just opening back up 100% makes sense given the potential death toll. My personal hope is that by the fall, the death toll for this is less than the largest Flu outbreaks we have had in the last 20 or so years and by late summer we can get some things back open. So imagine what the Dem talking points would be, we had something that could have been like the first major flu epidemic (1917-1918), i.e. a novel virus, and Trumps policies mitigated the death toll and kept it under what we have now with the Flu, which we have vaccines for and know how to treat it.
Rightly or wrongly, Trumps 2020 re-election hinges on how this COVID-19 thing turns out. If that gets under control, I want to see Trump pivot back to 1) Anti-China, which he was from as long as I remember, and contrast what every politician has done since Bush 1 to Obama, that it is allow more and more of these Trade deals to make us dependent on China and 2) Tough on Borders.
Linking the Covid 19 to the Globalist free trade economic system and lacked Borders (those 2 are interrelated) to me is what Trump will get re-elected on. The Economy was going great before Covid-19 and no Trump supporter is going to turn on him for something that he did not cause, China caused this.
I'm only "off normal" where things are out of my control.
I'm working from home because my company requires it.
I'm not going camping because the campgrounds we'd normally be going to are closed.
I really need a haircut but the barber shop is closed.
But where it's up to me, I'm living my life. I will not live in fear.
I'm still going to the store, going for motorcycle rides, walking my dog. Hitting up my favorite brew pub (takeout only now though), catching my favorite food trucks around town...
Correct, and those states have very few people and are in all cases, not densely populated. SC is perhaps the most, but it is only about 4.5 million or so and is spread out pretty evenly, i.e. there is no major, major, Metro area just lots of medium size cities, Charleston, Columbia, etc,
Growth appears exponential for a time, but eventually there are fewer uninflected people left to get it and the spread of the virus slows.
+++++
Be careful with that comparison. There are about 330,000,000 people in the U.S. The total number of known infections are 425,000. If you assume this total is off by a factor 10 (very possible) you are still talking about a little over 1% of the population is infected.
So the herd theory really is not applicable yet.
And right now we are adding to the known infected population by about 32,000 (not a typo - look it up) per day. That rate is rising but slowly. Thats good. And the number of people surviving the virus is increasing quite fast. That is also a good sign. Light at the end of the tunnel for the health workers and hospitals.
What this means is that the projections of the peak number of hospitalizations is going to be much more accurate going forward, at least while the social restrictions remain in place. I assume that will be at least to the end of April.
So my recommendation: Check out the new cases per day data. It is likely to hold steady or fall during April. Thats good. We really need it to really fall in the next 3 weeks. If it does Trump will be on solid ground recommending easing of the restrictions. If not he will, IMHO, do it anyway but with higher risk of a rebound in new cases.
“A post comparing Covid-19 death rates to other things that can kill people has been shared thousands of times on Facebook.”
I love getting the truth about important issues from someone (using the pseudonym Alex D. from RightJournalism.com) who re-cycles data he saw on Facebook.
His point seems to be that there are lots of people in the world, and a lot of them die every day, so a few more dead is not a big deal.
The famous scientist Alex D. with a medical degree from Facebook University then takes some data from 8 weeks ago to make his asinine point-
One of the worst days so far for Coronavirus was the 10th of February. On that day, 108 persons in CHINA died of coronavirus.”
That was a long time ago, yesterday the death toll was 6,414, 60 times higher than on February 10th.
Then SmokingJoe says
“17.9 million people died from all cardiovascular diseases in 2016 according to the WHOthis works out as 49,000 a day
What is 779 dead in NYC versus 49,000 dead a day from cardiovascular?
We can play this morbid game all day.”
The problem Mr. SmokingJoe is that the virus spreads. It killed 6,500 people yesterday. It killed more people in NYC yesterday than all other causes. If it spreads everywhere, why would it not kill more people everywhere than all other causes? NYC has 1 /800 = .125 percent of the world’s population. If the virus does to the rest of the world what it is doing to NYC that’s 779 * 800 = 624,400 per day. Do you think we should take that risk?
Below are the “Underlying Illnesses” used by the New York City Department of Health in tabulating Covid19 deaths. The 3 most prevalent underlying conditions are hypertension, diabetes, and asthma. The death rates, absent Covid19, for hypertension is .49% per year. The death rate from asthma is virtually zero. The death rate for diabetes is .24%. Only 1 in about 500 people die each year from these conditions. More than 50% of the underlying conditions have a negligible chance of causing death. So if someone is positive for Covid19, dies, and has asthma, there is a 99.99% chance they died because of the Covid19. Also, when we look at the seasonal flu, the death rate is calculated assuming that those who died WITH the seasonal flu, but had underlying conditions, dies BECAUSE of the seasonal flu. You can rationalize in this manner that the seasonal flu death rate is .01%, not .1%. You could rationalize that the death rate from cancer is 10 times lower because some of the people with cancer have high blood pressure. Basically you are making a stupid argument.
Diabetes https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/diabetes.htm
Lung Disease use stats for asthma
Cancer https://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/common.html
Immunodeficiency https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4820073/
Heart Disease https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/01/190131084238.htm
Hypertension https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db289.htm
Asthma https://www.lung.org/research/trends-in-lung-disease/estimated-prevalence-and-incidence-of-lung-dis-(1)/methodology
Kidney Disease https://www.cdc.gov/kidneydisease/publications-resources/2019-national-facts.html
Liver Disease https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/liver-disease.htm
US Population with disease
Diabetes 34,200,000
Lung Disease use asthma
Cancer 2,800,000
Immunodeficiency 165,000
Heart Disease 121,500,000
Hypertension 95,700,000
Asthma 22,500,000
Kidney Disease 37,000,000
Liver Disease 4,500,000
222,665,000
Annual deaths from disease
Diabetes 83,000
Lung Disease
Cancer 606,000
Immunodeficiency 0
Heart Disease 647,000
Hypertension 472,000
Asthma 338
Kidney Disease 47,000
Liver Disease 82,500
Annual Death Rate
Diabetes 0.24%
Lung Disease see asthma
Cancer 21.64%
Immunodeficiency
Heart Disease 0.53%
Hypertension 0.49%
Asthma 0.00%
Kidney Disease 0.13%
Liver Disease 1.83%
80,965 [now 81,817] Seasonal Flu Deaths This Year / 3,050 [now 3086] Coronavirus Deaths This Year
Now, and Orange Man Bad manipulation of the virus numbers aside, global flu deaths are less then 50% ahead of COVID-19. So regardless that COVID-19 is still behind flu, the fact that it has closed the gap so much strongly suggests that it was more contagious and deadly than flu imo.
So PDJT is right again imo. Winning!
Consider that some people were actually disappointed that Y2K was a dud. And well probably never know.
Corrections, insights welcome.
Send "Orange Man Bad" federal and state government Democrats and RINOs home in November!
Supporting PDJT with a new patriot Congress and state government leaders that will promise to fully support his already excellent work for MAGA and stopping COVID-19 will effectively give fast-working Trump a third term in office imo.
MAGA, also KAGA! (Keep America Great Always!)
153,623 people died in NYC in 2015. If you divide that by 365... it comes to just over 420 deaths per day. But because of seasonal illnesses like the flu more people per day die during the winter months. Despite the hype we are not seeing death totals even during the height of this “pandemic” that are outside of normal ranges.
The flu and other respiratory ailments take the low hanging fruit first. Once the vulnerable die the numbers taper off fairly quickly. Despite all the breathless media pundits all around the world... this originated with Democrats hoping to capitalize on something that they hoped could bring down president Trump. It is fizzling out now, but they will do their best to drag it out until election time.
Best post of the day. But conspiracy theories are so much more fun.
Last time I checked, the death rate still was hovering right around 100%.
“All over the country people are being fined or arrested or jailed”..
That’s what gets me. It’s kind of a given that anybody can be detained at any time by TPTB but... they have a limit of 72 hours before they charge you.
So if I am under “house arrest” don’t the same rules apply? Don’t they have to compensate me for turning my house into THEIR prison? This sucks big time, and it is part of a higher agenda. Believe me!
“Except I did not mention NYC. You did.”
I know - that’s what my original comment was about.
Thank you for those NYC numbers.
For clarification, I believe that the fact that COVID-19 deaths narrowed the gap on flu deaths globally reasonably suggests that COVID-19 is exponentially contagious, more contagious than flu.
Regarding U.S. shelter-in-place orders, it has unsurprisingly limited flu and predictable outdoor activity deaths.
Numbers for above thread came from this CDC link.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.