Posted on 04/08/2020 6:46:52 AM PDT by Basket_of_Deplorables
A reader with a PhD in engineering and 35 years experience in advanced data analysis wrote to us regarding Sweden’s experience so far in dealing with the Wuhan coronavirus without locking down the country. He reports:
I did a quick look at the data coming out of Sweden with the data obtained from Worldometer, and have plotted the data on a per capita basis (positive cases vs 1M population) for Sweden and the US as well as an exponential fit to the data. The exponential fit was obtained by using β-µ=0.3 for both countries, where β and μ are the rates of infections and removals in the population, respectively. The quotient of β/μ is the contagion rate or R0 (R-naught) and the WHO is estimating R0 to be between 2.0 and 2.5 for this virus.
Two extremely interesting observations can be seen in the data. First, although Sweden had a higher initial case count on March 4 than the US, their positive cases are approximately 670 per 1M population on April 5th and now below the US per capita rate of 1020 per 1M population. Second, the early infection rate for both Sweden and the US are essentially identical. The dashed red lines in the plot, as noted above, are a fit to the data using an identical slope of 0.3. But then Sweden “breaks the curve” (i.e. changes the infection rate) without any extraordinary measures...
(Excerpt) Read more at powerlineblog.com ...
Yes, the price is a (slightly) higher initial death rate than the US--no surprise. But nowhere near the end-of-the-world numbers we've been told would have happened here. Per capita, Sweden has less than 2x the death rate of USA, but the Fauci-Birx alliance told us 25x+.
And that's just the expected initially higher death rate. Soon they will have herd immunity, while we don't. So their death rates will drop naturally, and quickly, while NOT killing their economy.
We should have bit the bullet and done this, too. Quarantine the most likely to die, let the younger ones keep working and schooling.
Birx and Fauci need to go. There are much better experts available to advise Trump then those idiots.
“Soon they will have herd immunity, while we don’t.”
If you say so, it must be true.
Another fart in a windstorm.
Two major differences between U.S. and Sweden: (1) We have lots of cities with large populations and (2) there is a massive amount of travel in and out of this country. These are not insignificant differences.
“Quarantine the most likely to die, let the younger ones keep working and schooling.”
And getting Corona for their own future good.
I can’t wait until tons of backward-looking data is available and solidly based conclusions can be reached and a plan for future action is developed.
Very interesting plot. And the comment from the article that something interesting is going on with this virus is certainly true.
Looking at the raw data I noticed a couple of things worth noting:
1. The slowdown in the spread of the growth rate of the virus occurred at the point where there were about 1000 cases in Sweden. This is out of a population of about 10,000,000. So you cannot argue for a herd effect as the cause.
2. The U.S. has a population that is about 33 times that of Sweden. So the Swedish 1000 cases would correspond to about 33,000 cases in the U.S. That is about the case level where the rates started to fall over here but at a slower rate than in Sweden.
3. But the reason for Sweden’s success is, IMHO, not explainable. They did it without a lockdown. We didn’t. That is a mystery for sure. But the idea that our lockdown was not needed and was therefore irrelevant is too big a stretch for me.
Sweden did not shut down travel, so they are already getting many more travel related cases than us. No problem.
And NYC simply screwed themselves. But if they just restricted movement of older folks, there would not be the chaos there. Deblasio and friends encouraged behaviours that spread it fast. And their numbers are coming down.
Regardless, what we are doing here is killing the patient via the cure. We’ll have depression level unemployment in a few more weeks. We can’t keep doing this!
We don’t even know what % are already immune! And the death rate here is...what? 3 in 10,000? This is nuts.
What we are doing is a direct consequence of the election year. Trump initially Trump tried to keep a lid on it and It became obvious the MSM would crucify him. As it is they took pieces of his remarks and have used them in attack ads running in the swing states. When the NBA canceled that caused an avalanche. Then there was Rosenweasel’s sister. There was no chance we would go the Sweden route not with an opportunity to destroy Trump’s economy there for the taking.
Perhaps the Congress needs to set politics aside and draft measures for turning response to epidemics over to subject matter experts for future cases. ...and get the production of critical materials back inside the Nation.
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I would like to see your Sweden vs. U.S. data on that.
Consider that just Florida travelers alone who contracted COVID 19 visited at least 75 countries before they were diagnosed. Internal travel is also extensive. Florida domestic travelers with COVID 19 are known to have visited all but three of the states. And we're just talking about one state here.
Perhaps the Congress needs to set politics aside
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You must be dreaming. Congress is hopelessly partisan, corrupt and never proactive on anything.
Apples and oranges. Sweden has about a million more people than NYC, but spread out over a comparatively vast area.
What makes you think we won’t attain herd immunity, but without the mass casualty surge your plan would cause?
I am definitely dreaming. People keep voting the same way and expecting different results. That seems like another indication of being crazy. I don’t think Americans know how to self rule at this time.
I don’t think Americans know how to self rule at this time.
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There is an abundance of evidence to support your statement. We have devolved into a corrupt kleptocracy.
Our great experiment in democracy was good while it lasted.
I no longer recognize the country I grew up in.
Me either! I am sorry for what I will leave behind, but happy to be moving on.
Didn’t say that. Sweden and the US will both get herd immunity, eventually. The point is better to get it now than later, if later results in the destruction of the US economy. Predictions were all “millions will die in the US if we do that, because hospitals will be overwhelmed! Dying in the streets!”
Sweden proves that was bullshiite, if we just, well, did what they did. Plus or minus. Selective quarantining. Not forced complete shutdown.
By the way, what’s YOUR solution?
Ok, what’s YOUR solution?
***We need to KNOW AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE the best estimate on the total number of CV INFECTIONS IN THE USA.
This flu season: 39 million INFECTIONS, 400K hospitalizations, and 24K deaths from the flu. Fatalities as a % of those infected from the flu = 0.06%.
Current USA CV stats: 400K positive tests, 12.8K deaths. BUT WHAT ARE THE NUMBER OF CV INFECTIONS IN THE US? It is in the MILLIONS but is it 5 million? 50 million? We don’t know yet but need to find out ASAP.
BOTTOM LINE IS, THE FATALITIES AS A % OF THOSE INFECTED WITH CV WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THE FATALITIES AS A % OF THOSE TESTING POSITIVE WITH CV. We know this because there are a large number of asymptomatic people with CV who have shown no symptoms or were sick for a day or two and recovered.
If the CV fatalities as a % of those infected is as low as we suspect (0.1 to 0.2%) then the CV SPREADS MORE RAPIDLY than was estimated and is LESS LETHAL than we thought (as H1N1 was in 2009-2010). America can then quit this media-driven panic and get back to work. The health of the US economy is at stake. We need ANTIBODY tests done on sample populations as quickly as possible to get this data.
90% of those who have died from CV are over the age of 75 and have pre-existing conditions.
The combination of Hydroxychloroquine, Azithromycin, and Zinc has been working with thousands of patients worldwide.
God bless you and your families.
+1000!
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