Posted on 04/05/2020 6:18:08 PM PDT by Fido969
Worldometer: 1,165 deaths for April 5 report.
IHME model for April 5: Low 1228, High 1760
I know we can't draw a conclusion now - it's too early, but does this look good?
Other model issues I noticed -
Maine LOW projection for 04/05: Deaths per day:5; Total deaths: 21. Actual - Today 0, total 10.
Let’s end this lockdown.
That’s right. Time to get America back to work.
Allow a few more days to see if this is real. Sunday/Monday numbers have been consistently lower. If it is still real after Tuesday then expect the MSM to report on it in about 3 weeks.
The forecast is way off for Ohio. Actual new cases for 4/4 35. Forecast for new cases with extreme social distancing 1063. The forecast is overstated by 30x.
Bump
The last I heard, the 1000 bed USN hospital ship in NYC had only 3 or 4 patients.
689 of those deaths were in the tri-state area of NY/CT/NJ - 59% of total.
Michigan came in with 77 deaths.
Lousiana had 68.
I just read where NYC has had net hospital discharges for the 4th day in a row.
These models are worse than climate change hysteria. Michael Mann must be a covid-19 modeler.
That said -> I would say about a week ago, about when Chris Cuomo 'got sick' ... the government seems to have teamed up with the media to start making people fear the virus. Yes, duh, many were already panicked, but I don't think the government felt people were complying with distancing. So they cooked up a little scare campaign. The numbers they released were intentionally high (I think Gates slipped when he said lower than Fauci and HansBirx's low) ... and then you get Cuomo coming out with his drama queen pinnate crap.
I don't see us (the US, when this is over) coming in much higher than 50 - 70K. But that's napkin math based off other country numbers who are passed the peak, but who the hell knows how accurate their numbers are and of course there is the 'died of' vs 'died with' BS going on, perhaps an evil tinfoil conspiracy, more likely a fear tactic spiced with additional evil motives (lovers of large government plus biopharm execs weeping as they are seeing a jackpot pass by.)
NOW, could one argue that 'it's going to be that low partially BECAUSE the government and media attempted to scare the crap out of people with higher numbers - and hence they distanced better - buying more time for testing, antibody testing, and HQL or it's friends to get mass produced' ... I think one could argue that. I'm not saying they'd be right, I actually don't know.
I think there's a lot of manipulation going on. I'm not convinced it's entirely evil. It may be misdirected and ignorant and elitist, and certainly it's peppered with evil, but I think mankind is as I said at best a bad dream and more often a nightmare.
This whole thing starts out as a bad dream, so if that's all it winds up being, then it's not so much that we did well, but we can be thankful we didn't wind up worse.
In short: Yes, they are bending the numbers intentionally. I personally think it's because they have a mob on their hands that they feel has to be guided through this. In addition to that is a whole hell of a lot of evil players -> but what do you expect?
I think Trump will guide things towards us getting back to work soon, and the flubros will forever claim that they were right ... but the reality is it was always true that the chances of it turning out that way were 5 out of 6. The question is: If I offer you 1000$ to walk through a room that has a 1 in 10 chance of giving you pancreatic cancer ... are you going to walk through it? The flubros claim they would. I think they wouldn't ... but they would have others do it. And, probably whoever went through wouldn't die, and they would say 'see, it wasn't dangerous, I told you so', and they would be right, and also be morons.
None of this is all that cut and dry, except it's time to lay out the plan to get back to work. I suspect that starts end of this week out of Trump.
Oops didn't mean to write that much! :-P ... just thoughts I'm no expert ... back to watching Contagion which, interestingly, has a similar debate especially during the CDC guy's interview about 5/8ths of the way through.
Don’t you need to wait until the 6th to get the full count of deaths on the 5th? You have 2-8 more hours of dying, plus time collate the reports.
Even using the 4/4 numbers Ohio is better than the "best projection"
Projection - MINIMUMS
04/04 Total: 126 Daily 22
04/05 Total: 151 Daily 25
Actual, reported today: 04/05 Total 117 Daily 17
The places that are having the problems are: New York where DeBlutto told the New Yorkers to go out and celebrate Chinese New Year because... racism; and NOLA where LaToya Jackson told everyone to come to Mardi Gras.
And these fools blame Trump?
That’s correct, today’s figures are actually yesterdays.
They also are sometimes adjusted up or down later.
There’s so much noise in the reporting a day means nothing.
All states have reported for the 5th. There might be a few adjustments, but the new datat starts the reporting for the 6th. Maybe the reports are a day behind.
The low for the 4th was 1,133. Maybe that was the 1,154 (down from 1165 earlier) reported today.
OK, but if we are in the range, at the low end, that could give us a total of 40K deaths, rather than 100K.
* Hospitalizations projections are off by 8X
* Ventilator projections off by 40X
Those models were the reasons for Great Depression 2
Links here:
https://mobile.twitter.com/NikolovScience/status/1246823479820693505
Has anybody given the reason why hospital discharges are going up and net positive? I am hoping the cocktail of drugs they are using is working.
If we are peaking now, Trump will walk into the next press conference with Fauci's head on stick.
Other we get to listen to this guy BS us forever about how he was actually right because... science.
That’s not the way this works. I hope it turns out to be right though.
Not to worry, things will become clear in a week or so.
Not to worry the National Press Corpse will make it sound worse than it is.
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