Posted on 03/23/2020 1:40:53 PM PDT by Liberty7732
A lot of smart people are growing more concerned that we are overreacting to coronavirus in a way that could create dramatically more harm, including health effects, than the virus itself.
So let’s look at the possible overreaction impact along with a method for stepping out of it. Please accept as a given, that there is a lot we don’t know. But there is more and more we do. And a much better way to go forward.
First, the virus is very contagious, and spreads more easily and rapidly than the flu. Or so it seems. But it seems to be less deadly than the flu for young people and for the entire group under 50, about the same as the flu; while for 50-60 it is somewhat more dangerous than the flu and for 70 and above it is much more dangerous than the flu.
But we have shut down everything. Everyone. Some states have issued “shelter in place” orders (we can’t just say “stay home”?) and most others are encouraging everyone to stay home. Everyone. (I won’t even go into the First Amendment implications of the government ordering people not to gather together — right of assembly.)
This is done to keep younger people from infecting older people. But since this requires all of the older people to be quarantining anyway, do we need to include all the younger people, too?
This shutdown will generate its own health care issues, such as depression in a country where there is almost an epidemic of depression among young people, almost assuredly increased smoking, drinking and drug use. The longer we stay closed, the worse these get — directly on the health care system.
So there are some immediate health implications in the shutdown, but that barely scratches the surface of the real impact.
The economic repercussions of shutting down the country for 4-8 weeks is devastating, perhaps beyond our imagination. The chart below shows the spike in unemployment claims just from 17 states. Note how it reaches the peak recession-level claims at their peak. In. One. Week. JP Morgan is predicting that GDP in the second quarter will contract by 14%. They had it at 5% a few days earlier. This is a collapse level decline.
A recession is guaranteed at this point, but the risk is of throwing us into a full-scale Depression. The last one of those was 90 years ago and was crippling for most of a generation. Today, it would be worse because we are far more inter-reliant.
A Depression would risk crippling not just the economy, but the health care system in the long-term — the very system we are trying to keep from being overwhelmed. All those ventilators, masks, medicines and so on require companies to make them. That’s no problem right now because the demand is high.
But there are thousands and thousands of medical device needs, plus all the personnel. Do you know how that is all paid for? Hundreds of thousands of companies making a profit and paying their employees. Thriving companies and their employees send trillions of dollars in taxes to governments. If they are not thriving, or existing at much smaller levels, then a lot of that money goes away. There just isn’t money for health care.
But at the same time, people in a Depression would forgo regular doctor visits and use medical care only in an emergency, which we know is both less healthy, causes shorter lifespans, and costs more money. These health care costs physically and monetarily would not be caused by the virus, but by the reaction to it.
Have these trade-offs been weighed? Are they now?
If we go into a Depression, it’s guaranteed that the “cure” was worse than the disease. It will not have been worth it — based on what we know now. The long-term consequences of an 8-week economic nap are staggering.
But we don’t need to do it.
Right now, we should be making plans for stepping out of this national shutdown by allowing everyone under 60 to return to work as normal. Not life as normal, but work as normal.
Heather MacDonald wrote in the Spectator for us to “Consider the costs.” “We should focus our efforts on our known vulnerable populations — the elderly, the infirm, and those who care for them. The elderly should be protected from unknown contacts. Nursing homes must be immaculately maintained. But until there is clear evidence that canceling commerce is essential to preventing mass casualties, the stampede of shutdown oneupmanship should end.”
Post stay at home orders (or preferrably strong suggestions) for everyone over 60 and create financial help for that group. We can target that much, much smaller group with help that will cost our children considerably less than throwing a thousand dollars we don’t have at every American every few weeks. Because it is not necessary.
Everyone else, get back to work, wash your hands, practice social distancing, be extremely cautious with at-risk groups — as in, stay away from them like you carry the plague, because you might for them — but otherwise keep calm and carefully carry on.
This is a modified South Korean model. We crank out ventilators like crazy (although we already have more per person than most countries, including Europeans) and necessary crisis equipment and even adapt buildings while lightening-tracking treatments.
About 80 percent of workers would be back on the job, cranking on the economy. We will have a recession, that’s baked in at this point, but probably a short one. We’d pull back out pretty quickly. And we would continue on with a sound economy for moving past the virus.
Dr. David Katz, founding director of the Yale-Griffin Prevention Research Center, said this targeted approach is best. “There may be more targeted ways to beat the pandemic.” This is the point: “The rush to impose sweeping restrictions on public and commercial life across the entire economy should be more carefully evaluated.”
We can’t wreck our economy for perhaps as long as a generation. The costs are just too high.
yes and I’m out of binge-watching series to watch, I’m almost done with my embroidery and my summer bulbs are all planted
I just want to make sure that leftist politicians and the leftist media gets there full heaping share of the blame for over-reacting to this health issue. They will be guilty of murder many times over. They should be dealt with accordingly.
Makes sense to me...I’m in the “elderly” class and Saturday I will be older but I agree. I will still take precautions but still do my grocery shopping tomorrow as always. Don’t anticipate it to go smoothly but better than sending someone to shop for me..pick out my veggies/fruits/meats - no thank you! Everyone says - “try it, you’ll like it”..
No, there is too much stress already thinking of the care my husband needs and what I need to do to take care of myself. Who needs any added pressure/stress? The mental stress will affect the body and it’s not necessary!
Sadly, they won’t. Leftists and their willing accomplices in the media are already blaming Trump for not doing enough soon enough. No matter what happens, they will find a way to blame Trump.
Once a specific and sensitive test for the virus is available, we will be able to determine an overall mortality rate.
But, if you listen to the MSM, you would think we are dealing with the Black Death.
It’s Time. Go back to work.
Wash your hands. Take your Ester C & Zinc, hydrate. Just go back to work.
The working class is gonna get stuck with the bill $$$, we need to roll up our sleeves and get busy
I know. The best thing that might happen is for the American voting public to identify the atrocity of their actions and give the Rats a drubbing for the ages at the ballot box in November.
Tracking the Coronavirus:
How Crowded Asian Cities Tackle an Epidemic (Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan) New York Times ^ | March 17 2020 | Hanna Beech Posted on 3/17/2020, 10:16:30 PM by rintintin
Two hours. That’s all the time medical teams in Singapore are given to uncover the first details of how patients contracted the coronavirus and which people they might infect.
The NYS (slimes) expectedly in reporting did not go into what Singapore was doing which is not responding to the CComWuVi (Chinese Communist Wuhan Virus) by shutdowns wrecking its economy by closing everything down These postings explain what and how Singapore and other cities are doing which is well worth a look.
post #7
edited, My sister in law lives in Singapore. This is for real. They have people assigned at entrances with hand held infra-red heat guns. She said she was scanned 5 times just today. Anyone who displays a high body temp are isolated and asked who they have been with? How long they felt like this? If they ever coughed in public ?. The shelves in stores are full and there is no panic. From what she says. This is a very effective and organized way to handle the crisis.
. Trump I love him Maybe we could learn a lot from Singapore.
7 posted on 3/17/2020, 10:40:11 PM by Bommer
Here’s another detailed posting from another site says it all
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3826755/posts#6
If we convert this panic into a classic Depressioin or if it is the start of one already, we will find that borrowing money from China and others increasingly expensive. We will have a harder and harder time maintaining our military and China and Russia will start filling the gaps we leave around the world, China will have had a strategic victory in its ongoing cold war against America. We no longer have the productive capacity to ramp up production to fight a hot war with China and there will be a hot war with China, or a piecemeal surrender.
The depression we are creating will decrease average longevity and increase poor health and death due to malnutrition and perhaps starvation so that total life lost will dwarf anything the WuHan unpleasantness will do.
Same in Florida. A good conservative governor has succumbed to the temptation to lever himself to Petty Despot.
“No matter what happens, they will find a way to blame Trump.”
Well it’s on his watch so it comes with the job. I think the key thing Trump is doing is pushing for reducing intervals on treatments and vaccines through government - private sector partnerships.
It may be a Hail Mary but if treatments / vaccines are developed quickly in some sort of Manhattan project then this becomes an incredible accomplishment for Trump. Take lemons and make lemonnade.
I think the writer is the one panicked. This isn’t 1929. The fundamentals of the economy prior to covid-19 were extremely strong so we have that going for us.
Trump isn’t Jimmy Carter. Trump’s guidelines on social distancing weren’t issued that long ago and called for a review in 15 days. Trump isn’t going to have a depression on his watch. He is balancing economic impact with a need to reduce covid-19 hospitalizations and deaths since he would be blamed for that as well.
This is a case history on leadership. It is not one approach vs another. It is a matter of balancing and optimizing two undesirable situations. I can’t think of a better leader to be stuck with this exercise.
fully agree
VIRUS DENIER!!! YOU WANT TO KILL GRAMMY!!!
I think that people "study" economics and think they understand how the economy works. They become writers and teachers and share their "knowledge."
Consumers of that product believe they understand the economy, which is business. In listening and reading to them, elsewhere and here, I know that few if any really do.
Those who have not actually run a business with their own personal financial life on the line can little understand the challenges presented by the market, government, of employees...
Understanding the limits of one's knowledge is the start of wisdom. I'm not seeing a lot of wisdom lately.
Make no mistake; this is a big deal for the economy. Let's put it this way: I believe it's more likely we see a depression than we see 100K die in the US of the Chinese Bat Soup Flu.
Having many companies up to their eyeballs in debt is not 'extremely strong', that's a 'house of cards'.
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