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Needed: the reopening plan. Fast.
The Grumpy Economist ^ | March 20, 2020 | John Cochrane

Posted on 03/21/2020 8:24:12 AM PDT by karpov

A trillion bucks is a lot of money. The costs of shutting down the economy are larger. California's GDP is essentially zero at the moment. US GDP was about $22 trillion per year before the virus hit, almost $2 trillion per month.

Shutting everything down and staying home for a few weeks is a sledgehammer. OK, our leaders have to hit a virus with a sledgehammer when they have nothing else up their sleeve. But it cannot last. Businesses will close, people will lose jobs, the economy will not be there to start up again.

Needed fast: a plan to open up the economy again in a virus-safe way. Every business should be (and likely is) working hard to figure out how to operate in a virus-safe way. Federal state and local government need to be working 24 hours a day during the next few weeks to promulgate virus-safe practices. Not because they are particularly good at it, but because they are the ones shutting things down, and their permission is needed to reopen, fully or partly. People also will want the confidence to know that businesses they patronize are compliant. You've got two weeks -- figure out what combination of personal distancing, self-isolation, testing, cleaning, etc. will allow each kind of business to reopen, at least partially.

The option to force everyone to stay home and close all "non-essential" business for three or six months is simply not viable, at least for a disease something short of the bubonic plague. The option to wait two or three weeks and then start thinking about what it takes to allow, say, the local dry cleaner to reopen, which will take another month or so, is simply not viable.

(Excerpt) Read more at johnhcochrane.blogspot.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy
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1 posted on 03/21/2020 8:24:12 AM PDT by karpov
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To: karpov

Only thing to do is cancel 2019 personal income tax payments.
those having filed quarterly thru 2019 carry forth through 2020 with no payment.

no other alternative basically


2 posted on 03/21/2020 8:27:49 AM PDT by mo ("If you understand, no explanation is needed; if you don't understand, no explanation is possible")
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To: karpov

This is another plot to get rid Trump!


3 posted on 03/21/2020 8:29:42 AM PDT by Ann Archy (Abortion....... The HUMAN Sacrifice to the god of Convenience.)
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To: karpov
Or we could just move all our industries back from China.

The ramping up from that would dwarf any economist's limited plan.

4 posted on 03/21/2020 8:29:55 AM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change with out notice.)
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To: karpov; All

Needed: A well-disciplined militia needed to get together with OUR sons and daughters, nieces and nephews...in other words OUR armed forces in case SHTF by POLITICOS & PROPAGANDISTS foreign and domestic. Just in case.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFPigJiISCc

Thanks Chief.


5 posted on 03/21/2020 8:32:00 AM PDT by PGalt (Past Peak Civilization?)
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To: mo

Local and state authorities better be ready to cancel or severely cut property and state taxes, too.


6 posted on 03/21/2020 8:35:28 AM PDT by ProtectOurFreedom
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To: PGalt

The few dead people will be the LUCKY ones if this goes on much longer. There will be more SUICIDES than virus deaths!


7 posted on 03/21/2020 8:35:52 AM PDT by Ann Archy (Abortion....... The HUMAN Sacrifice to the god of Convenience.)
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To: karpov

Yes, that would be nice. Look forward. Meanwhile, we are getting takeout and going for a picnic.

That medicine has been approved in Poland, hope that happens here fast.


8 posted on 03/21/2020 8:36:20 AM PDT by SaxxonWoods (Epstein pulled a Carradine, the bozo.)
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To: karpov

“The rent is too damn high”. Rent is typically the largest fixed overhead cost of most restaurants and small businesses, and the Bankruptcy Code makes working with landlords and unpaid rent more difficult than working with almost any other creditor. With no trade owing to lockdown orders, business have no way to make their rent. The financial recovery package should include a temporary abatement of rack-rent for all restaurants and small businesses. The losses suffered by landlords from this are far easier to deal with and less damaging than the alternate consequence of putting the tenant businesses under.


9 posted on 03/21/2020 8:37:07 AM PDT by PUGACHEV
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To: SaxxonWoods
That medicine has been approved in Poland, hope that happens here fast.

How many Poles does it take to stop the Coronavirus?

10 posted on 03/21/2020 8:37:28 AM PDT by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: PUGACHEV

One of the Left’s goals is to discourage private landlords, so they give up, allowing the government to take over housing.


11 posted on 03/21/2020 8:38:53 AM PDT by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: Ann Archy

Your “in forum” record of comments is nothing but screaming, CAPITAL LETTERS and exclamation points.

Just stop.


12 posted on 03/21/2020 8:40:36 AM PDT by SaxxonWoods (Epstein pulled a Carradine, the bozo.)
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To: dfwgator

If the government can’t house everyone who can’t house themselves, they turn private landlords into slaves of the tenants.


13 posted on 03/21/2020 8:40:58 AM PDT by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic warfare against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: ProtectOurFreedom

its a good opportunity for this to pass.

https://fairtax.org/

ultimately forces Fed.gov and state government to be pro business which means pro jobs


14 posted on 03/21/2020 8:41:01 AM PDT by mo ("If you understand, no explanation is needed; if you don't understand, no explanation is possible")
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To: ProtectOurFreedom; mo

And sales tax for the “government in exile” should also have already been suspended.

This government kicks the rape victim.


15 posted on 03/21/2020 8:41:42 AM PDT by Empire_of_Liberty
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To: SaxxonWoods

Go away jerk.


16 posted on 03/21/2020 8:43:20 AM PDT by Ann Archy (Abortion....... The HUMAN Sacrifice to the god of Convenience.)
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To: karpov

Declare a jubilee. March and April never happened.

Mortgages extended as if the months never happened. Loan repayments put off.

That would certainly drop the cash requirements for the average family.


17 posted on 03/21/2020 8:46:00 AM PDT by Vermont Lt
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To: karpov

Thank you, for the thread. A great amount of economic damage has already been done and it seems that even a high percentage of people here are still caught up in the fear and hysteria. But we need to be thinking about how we come back from this lunacy. First step is going to be getting the public back to a realistic perspective of the actual health threats.

The virus causes no symptoms in half of those infected, symptoms that are mild enough to be ignored by the next 30% and has a long enough incubation period that people spread it around before becoming symptomatic. It can be a big problem even lethal for people who are vulnerable because of age or medical history. But the reaction chosen has been almost completely nonsensical for most people in most places. Vulnerable people should be carefully isolated but the rest of us need to get back to work. This is ridiculous!


18 posted on 03/21/2020 8:48:48 AM PDT by fireman15
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To: Vermont Lt

This is a very good idea. Just hit the pause button for people’s financial obligations. That would give everyone breathing room to deal with all of this.


19 posted on 03/21/2020 8:51:46 AM PDT by Dilbert San Diego
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To: karpov

I love that so many think that you can shut down the economy and then just start it back up when you want. When an economy shuts down its parts begin deteriorating. They’re gone. They cannot take part in the restart. One week from yesterday I give it before people start to wake the hell up.


20 posted on 03/21/2020 8:52:57 AM PDT by TalBlack
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