Mass Shootings: The Politicization of Tragedy and Fact-Free Data

The Houston Courant ^ | March 4th, 2020 | M. Tremoglie

[The Houston Courant]

There was another mass shooting in America. This time at a Molson Coors brewery in Milwaukee on February 26. An employee walked in the plant and, for inexplicable reasons, gunned down five people before committing suicide.

This tragedy has once again sparked the discussion of gun control. The usual suspects are making the usual claims - and as usual - stoking demonization of Second Amendment advocates.

But much of the public and media discourse about mass shootings, like the public discourse about crime in general, is fact-free. This has led to a political and ideological war. As in all wars, the first casualty is the truth.

Claims such as that by Rep. Jim Himes (D-CT) that the US is the only country with mass shootings are made and uncritically repeated. The fact is the three of the most lethal mass shootings in history occurred outside of the US:

2014 Peshawar School Massacre, Pakistan: 149 killed

2015 Garissa University Kenya: 148 killed

2015 November Concert, Paris: 130 killed

Indeed, the gun control rhetoric in August 2019- after two mass shootings occurred with 24 hours- are illustrative of this. They were long on hyperbole short on validity.

After the August 2019 mass shooting in El Paso, Texas, Sen. Dianne Feinstein made a fact-free declaration that America has “more guns than people.”. The truth is estimates of gun ownership vary. The same survey Feinstein referenced changed its estimates in one year. The organization which publishes this survey acknowledged its limitations.

During his presidential campaign, Democratic Party candidate, Beto O’Rourke, claimed America is unique in terms of the amount of gun deaths. This was also sans facts. The USA is about 20th in terms of gun fatalities. A similar fact-free declaration was made by the Brookings Institution in an August 5, 2019 essay, “No other country has even half the number of gun deaths as the United States...”

An August 4, 2019 sanctimonious disquisition, by Never-Trump Republican David Frum, in The Atlantic made the fact-free claim that Italy “….does not have mass shootings.” Not true. Italy has had two mass shootings since 2008.

An August 6, 2019 CNN analysis stated, “In Australia ...four mass shootings occurred between 1987 and 1996. After those incidents... Parliament passed stricter gun laws. Mass shootings have become rare in Australia since …”

There have been three mass shootings in Australia since the 1996 law.

A basis for a lot of the anti-gun rhetoric is a study by University of Alabama Criminology Professor Adam Lankford, which proffers that America’s availability of guns is the root cause of mass shootings.

But criminologist Gary Kleck has lambasted Lankford’s findings stating that the only thing they prove is that there is a correlation but it does not prove causation. Kleck has also criticized Lankford’s reluctance to make his data available.

Another critic is economist John Lott of the Crime Prevention Research Center. He conducted a study which refutes Lankford. He found that from 2009 to 2015 there were 25 mass shooting incidents resulting in a rate of 0.62 fatalities per million. For that same period 19 mass shooting incidents occurred in the EU, resulting in a rate of 0.45 per million fatalities. So the USA is not an outlier.

Others make claims blaming mental illness and the mental health community for failing to prevent dangerous people from obtaining weapons. But this also seems to be fact-free.

Jonathan M. Mentlz, professor of Sociology and Psychiatry at Vanderbilt University has done a great deal of research in this area. He feels it is incorrect to ascribe the cause of mass shootings to just mental illness.

“The problem is that there is no real diagnosis. It is not true to say mental illness is the sole factor. It is incredibly reductive. It is one of numerous factors,” he said.

While he acknowledges the importance of the shooter’s psychological profile he notes, “But that is different from saying a particular psychiatric illness is the cause. For example, I have not seen any data stating (Red Flag Laws) stop mass shootings. There are studies suggesting they are effective in reducing suicides.”

A paper published in Psychiatry Online by James V. Knoll MD and George D. Annas MD MPH supports Mentlz. They wrote, “Little research exists that would serve to better inform mental health professionals or law enforcement regarding the problems that lead individuals to commit mass murder.”

So, what is the answer?

A March 2, 2018 Rand Corporation paper observes that there is a significant problem in researching mass shootings. It said, “….different choices about how to define a mass shooting result in different findings for both the prevalence of these events at a given time and whether their frequency has changed over time. ....the ambiguity in how mass shootings are defined and counted may result in increased media coverage influencing public perception without better informing our understanding...”

Rosanna Smart is a researcher in applied microeconomics for RAND who studies gun policy and criminal justice. When asked about the existing research in mass shootings she noted that capturing data about - and the rarity of - the events make statistical analysis nearly impossible.

"Without a common definition and a common database on mass shootings it is difficult to make comparisons and it is difficult to develop causal relationships,” said Dr. Smart. “Different researchers use different definitions as to what comprises a mass shooting. Therefore, researchers may be working with different data sets. Even if we have a common definition and common database, because they are rare events, it is difficult to establish statistical relationships."

It seems the only fact about mass shootings are that we do not have all the facts. More and better research needs to be conducted. Meanwhile, if anything should be controlled, it should be the hysterical pronouncements by politicians eager to exploit tragedies for their own benefit.

[nonsporting]

The solution is manifest — kill the shooter as quickly as possible.

Disarmed victims cannot. Armed citizens can.

Weapons-free workplaces are deadly. Always carry. Always.

[Joe Brower]

Perhaps of interest.

[PROCON]

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