COVID-19 Mortality May Be Significantly Lower Than Originally Reported (VIDEO)

nbc news twitter ^ | march 6th, 2020 | Brett Giroir

[Mount Athos]

"The best estimates now of the overall mortality rate for COVID-19 is somewhere between 0.1% and 1%," Adm. Brett Giroir, assistant secretary for health at HHS, says. "That's lower than you heard probably in many reports ... it's not likely in the range of 2 to 3%"

[null and void]

Wonder why didn’t the FR Corvid fan club not post this?

Can't speak for the rest of us, but I just got to it. It's been a day full of interuptions.

I note that he says using people who aren't even sick in his calculations.

That might skew the results, doncha think?

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

[null and void]

BTW, thanks for calling it Corvid, I tried to get that to happen a while back, no other takers.

Corvids are birds in the family that includes crows and ravens.

Birds associated with death...

[null and void]

In spite of the babbling of government bureaucrats, the fatality rate is 3.46%. 109747 cases, 3802 deaths = 3.46%

I WISH!!!

You are counting everyone sick as a survivor.

Would that they all will be! Here's a test:

Do the same calculation for the survival rate.

Do the two numbers add up to 100%?

[Trumpisourlastchance]

It’s got a 5% fatality rate in Italy, as of now. It’s orders of magnitude worse than the flu.

[Jane Long]

:-)

[ScottfromNJ]

“Forget the Chinese statistics.Try the So. Korean statistics. On March 6th, they have 6,284 confirmed cases with 42 deaths so far. And that doesn’t include unconfirmed cases.And yes I know that also doesn’t include people who are currently sick and may yet die. The number should be very low, I would say around 1.0%”

And Italy has a fatality rate near 5%. That’s why the global tally is a match better and more accurate sample. As the overall global numbers increase, the fudging of data done by some governments tends to become less and less of a factor. Plus the severity of the disease can vary for numerous reasons from one country to another.

[Mount Athos]

There are drastically more infections than confirmed cases, which results in the true death rate being drastically lower in italy than 5%

[DownInFlames]

Numbers don’t lie.

[ProtectOurFreedom]

The flaw in that thinking is the denominator. There’s been comparatively little testing in the US. If the denominator is 3X that 109,747 number, you get down to about 1%.

[ProtectOurFreedom]

“Some here at FR will be sooo disappointed”

That is just an ignorant and flat-out stupid thing to say. NOBODY would be disappointed to see fewer people die.

[ScottfromNJ]

“I WISH!!! You are counting everyone sick as a survivor. Would that they all will be! Here’s a test: Do the same calculation for the survival rate.”

A good argument can be made that the death rate is actually higher than 3.4%, the death to recovered ratio may actually be a more accurate indicator. But I do know one thing, it’s not less than 1%.

[ScottfromNJ]

“The flaw in that thinking is the denominator. There’s been comparatively little testing in the US. If the denominator is 3X that 109,747 number, you get down to about 1%.”

And if the numerator’s low due to unreported deaths?

[SunkenCiv]

• Financial Markets Are Opening in Asia- Looks like another tough day ahead
• Oil plummets 30% as OPEC deal failure sparks price war
• Americans trapped or locked northern Italy free fly home
• Diocese of Rome Cancels All Public Masses, Announces Day of Fasting and Prayer
• US Senator Ted Cruz is self isolating after contact with COVID-19 positive person
• Data shows daily coronavirus deaths are decreasing worldwide. Media misleads with cumulative statistics and graphs

[ProtectOurFreedom]

It’s a lot harder to hide a dead body than an infected person with mild symptoms.

Still, you raise a valid point — there is uncertainty for both the numerator and the denominator and there’s always some uncertainty about the cause of death.

But I’d wager that there is a lot more certainty about the number of infected people than uncertainly about the cause of death. Most of those who die had a lot of tests done before they died which identified the disease they had and succumbed to.

[TigerClaws]

I hope the vaccine is found tomorrow and .1 or .00001% is the true kill rate.

But let’s look at one location:

Nursing home in Kenwood, Washington.

120 residents.

16 dead.

70 showing symptoms but we don’t know the total infected because they weren’t tested until today (tomorrow?).

https://www.yaktrinews.com/washington-coivd-19-deaths-hit-18-with-2-more-from-nursing-home/

It doesn’t sounds like a 1% kill rate.

Then factor in that this is with BEST MEDICAL CARE WE HAVE.

Italy now has patients in the hallways. There are only 60,000 ventilators in the U.S. What happens when those are all in use? What will they do to those who show up after? How will they prioritize who lives and dies?

A quick vaccine (not the one year as Trump was informed in his meeting with the pharma guys) is vital.

Source re ventilators:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21149215

Ventilator needed when ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome) happens.

We’re also assuming COVID-19 won’t mutate and hit all age groups as hard as it does those over 70.

Anyone looking to China for real data = delusional. They’re facing the collapse of their economy and possibly their entire power structure. They’re lying and will continue to lie.

[Raycpa]

I assume the death toll from regular flu will be reduced.

[bray]

In related news a delivery of Xanax arrived at the DNC HQ this afternoon.

[Svartalfiar]

In spite of the babbling of government bureaucrats, the fatality rate is 3.46%. 109747 cases, 3802 deaths = 3.46%

That number is incorrect. You are using total cases, when a large number of those have not resolved, and therefore cannot be confirmed as a recovery or a death. There's only ~60M recoveries, so the current fatality rate for confirmed cases is at ~5.9%.

[Svartalfiar]

Forget the Chinese statistics.

Try the So. Korean statistics. On March 6th, they have 6,284 confirmed cases with 42 deaths so far.

And that doesn't include unconfirmed cases.

And yes I know that also doesn't include people who are currently sick and may yet die.

The number should be very low, I would say around 1.0%

And of those 6M cases, (per Johns Hopkins data) ONLY 118 have recovered so far. Also, JH shows 50 SK deaths, so that total gives us a current fatality rate of 29.76%. Since recoveries do lag deaths, that number will come down a bunch, but there's no way it's gonna be under 1%. MAYBE 5%. Hopefully lower, but I doubt it.

If anything, their widespread testing (and lack of total recoveries) seems to show that there isn't this mythical 80% of people not even getting sick enough to see the doc. The hidden survival rate would seem to be much lower than everyone thinks.

[ScottfromNJ]

See post # 51.