Vanity: Prep for what will happen, not the Apocalypse

2/20/2020

[Vermont Lt]

As the person who posts the daily Live thread on COVIOD-19, I am often pointed at as a ring leader for the "hype" and "hysteria". I don't think its fair, but I get it.

I want to make a couple of over arching statements based on my life experience working in hospitals, emergency management and along side municipal and federal emergency preparedness organizations and departments.

My work experience in hospital emergency planning and working with local, state, and federal officials provides me with a perspective that is different than most. The planning for these is things is pretty unemotional and clinical. My specific experience was in logistical communications systems, support operations, and overall planning of patient flow through the care process.

I am not a doctor. But I've spent way too much time in the clinical setting dealing with them on setting up things like communications, escalations, triage systems, emergency communications with local, state, and federal officials.

So, those are my bona fides...here are my comments.

First...More than 99% of the people reading this are NOT going to die from this virus. Most of you will barely get sick.

Please let that be your overall mind set. If you are elderly or have respiratory or heart issues...take care of yourself. You have a greater risk. Do some reading on it.

The normal flu precautions are the key thing. Hygiene is critical. Wash your hands. In the hospital setting the phrase is, "Wash in, wash out." Nurses and others will wash their hands when then come into a room and when they leave. This is their protocol and should be your guide.

Second, throughout the rest of your life your primary goal should be: STAY OUT OF THE DAMNED HOSPITAL. If you can avoid going to the hospital on any given day of the week--avoid it. If things get sketchy and the system gets overwhelmed...stay away. Don't visit unless you really have to. Aside from the fact you are not going to die...your chances of dying skyrocket if you dismiss all of the guides for staying healthy and you have to go to the hospital.

Now...onto the "hysteria".

The danger of this whole thing is not that you are going to die. You aren't. If you do, write me and I will send you an apology.

The danger is cultural and economic.

We have already seen the start of the disruption of the supply chain from China. Just in time inventory should start showing some impact. We buy lots of parts and materials from China. China exports are down to the tune of millions of containers every month. Container companies are writing off refrigerated containers by the thousands as they sit on the docks in China--filled with rotting food and meat.

The inventory for most stores is less than a week. The inventory for factories is about a month. We are eating up the stocks we had. About 2/3s of what we normally have shipped to us are stopped. Even if the factory is working, the ports are not working in China. Soon Korea and Japan join that list.

In the US, when this starts breaking out in communities stuff is going to shut down. It will shut down over "abundance of caution ." You are all familiar with that phrase. Usually it means "we don't want to get sued." This time I think the concern is genuine.

Schools, sports, movies, factories, etc will start postponing or shutting down. This will range from your local high school to things like "The Final Four" or other large events. Think Church services.

So, will your school, office, factory get closed? Even if virus is not in your department, family, or class?

Now think of everything associated with shutting a complete economic system (local to national). Who is getting paid? Who isn't?

This is not going to be fair or make sense. It is just the way people act when their fears exceed their expectations.

This virus moves quickly and is pretty contagious in enclosed spaces. So, many people might get "sick." A few will get really sick. That is going to scare the crap out of people in your are. And they are going to react like a pack of wild animals.

Their fear is going to exceed their expectations.

So, think about what this means to YOU.

Worst-case probability is that you are going to have your school or place of business shut down for a couple of weeks. Can you live as you normally do without your kids in school, or cooped up in your apartment for two weeks?

Can you go with your current level of pills during this time?

Can you pay your bills?

You will not lose power. The natural gas lines will run. Your cable will run. The internet won't go down. Those systems run well with no one managing them.

Many stores will be open...but they may be disrupted as well.

In my area we get blizzards. Everyone has enough back up stuff to live through a blizzard. This would be twice that. That is my expectation.

This is the first social media pandemic. We know what is going on in China, partially through twitter. Is it real? Is it fake? How do you know?

They recently showed a video of a car being stopped at a check point in China. The driver tried to run the check point. Eventually, he was stopped and eventually subdued.

It was not real, as it had been suggested (and as it was presented and caused all sorts of Twitter-panic.). How did I know it was a drill....because as anyone who has every manned a containment or military check point like that will tell you...the person and car would have been shot the second it started moving through without stopping. I've drilled those--but I know plenty who have done it in real life.

My point is you have to think this stuff through and apply a reasonableness to it. You have to find sources you trust and respect. But, when a source is feeding your bullshit, you have to consider the source as well.

In the big picture expect the masses to freak out. I don't mean the people on FR, I mean the people who do not pay attention to anything but "The Bachelor." They are going to start screaming about the stuff I am telling you and the echo chamber of social media is going to amplify that by orders of 100.

Be prepared for that.

If you wash your hands, pay attention to your food stuffs; have enough to eat and drink for a while; make sure you have money to pay your bills if you are not able to work for a while...you will be fine. Consider it an early spring break.

Set your expectations! Have reasonable and educated expectations.

1. Social Media is going to go ballistic. Be prepared and understand what is real and what is "apocalypse" stuff.

2. If you normally take prescriptions that might be subject to disruption call your health care provider and ask for a refill. If you have enough...don't horde.

3. Don't horde more than you need to be prepared. My wife is a cancer patient and she has been wearing masks outside for months because people are nasty. She has three more months of chemo and a month of masks. Stupid people hording are putting us in a bind. Don't do it.

4. Question everything and understand what you can.

In the one of the Star Trek movies they use secret codes to remotely control their ship. At that point,one of the new crew is told, "You have to know how stuff works on a Starship."

I used that example in every training session and lecture I've given in the past 20 years.

People do not understand how their "starship" works. They accept what they are told. They do not pay attention to details.

"Learn how your stuff really works--not how its supposed to work."

Understand how a virus works. Understand where people are getting their information. Listen for incorrect or out of date information--and recognize it when it circles around next week in the form of a statement or rumor. It happens all too regularly. It will literally make you laugh or shake your head. Maybe both.

People will be late to the party. Help them.

Do not be so stuck in your ways to acknowledge when the person you thought was nuts two weeks ago, all of a sudden makes sense. Some have.

Finally, in the end this is about managing expectations. If you have none--you are going to be constantly surprise and caught unprepared.

In my opinion, on a range of expectations from the normal flu to a world ending apocalypse...this situation is this about 1.5 x the flu. Which is concerning, but not horrifying.

If you read to the end of this, question your expectations and why you have them. If you don't have expectations, you should start making some.

(And I am going to go donate to the Freepathon. I urge EVERYONE who has been reading these threads to make a contribution. FR has provided an amazing amount of balanced, not-crazy, information along with some good-natured and well needed humor. YOU owe it to Jim to support the effort.

[humblegunner]

Well, I would prefer you to die

WELL!

You certainly won't be getting a Christmas card from ME this year.

Hmmph.

[CharleysPride]

Excellent post and advice, thank you for helping educate people about what to expect.

[StAnDeliver]

"At this point I do think what’s coming isn’t Captain Tripps. Here we are weeks in and the Rats want to argue whether we’ve reached triple digits (in this country). So whatever the “R0” or “communicability” is it ain’t end of the world stuff. We don’t really need an impenetrable barrier which is unrealistic just enough of a barrier to blunt the force of the wave. A lot of people may get sick. There may be a bunch that even die. Maybe even thousands. But I do think if it was “Capt. Tripps” we would know by now."

We just came off one of the worst if not the worst flu season in the US. A and B, not just B but B/Victoria, which - while from a different family than Covid - also attempts to drown its victims in pnemuonia.

SO the US is a pool of immune-active individuals.

For some - smokers with high ACE2 (and the more improbable prior SARS vaccination) - that's not going to be protection. For the most of the rest of us, it likely is.

Can there be any doubt that millions of Chinese are likely exposed and their immune systems fought it off without so much as a sniffle.

I remember the hysteria surrounding A/New Jersey/1976 (H1N1) aka swine flu. When the pandemic failed to materialize in the US, the public turned sour on the immunization program (the vaccination produced Guillain–Barré syndrome in some people). That's where we will be in December.

In total, 48,161,019 Americans, or just over 22% of the population, had been immunized by the time the National Influenza Immunization Program was effectively halted on December 16, 1976.

Recompensation charges were filed for over 4,000 cases of severe vaccination damage, including 25 deaths, totalling US$3.5 billion, by 1979.

[metmom]

Indeed, there’s a lot more to consider than just the virus, and IMO, the looming election is one of them.

I do not see a good outcome no matter who gets elected.

If Trump wins again, I see repeats plus some, of what happened in 2016.

If, God forbid, a democrat socialist gets elected, kiss this country goodbye and be ready for Venezuela type scenarios.

I recognize that there is no way someone can prep for a lifetime survival of like the next 20 years, but if everyone had enough stuff for a few months, it would take a lot of pressure off the system and the glitches and bumps would not have such a major impact with others, who are not prepared and panicking.

[metmom]

It was not too long and your credentials are impressive.

Thanks for posting.

[Black Agnes]

Yup.

I expect shenanigans over this.

I expected them anyway this year because, election.

I expect them to be even more shenaniganny now.

[wastoute]

You have an obviously better memory for “flu facts” than I do. I remember memorizing a great number when I took the board exam. But you mention one thing, the immune response of potentially infected in the USA. If no one mounts an immune response that probably won’t be a factor. Just what that means especially in terms of “unintended consequences” I have no idea. Out of hundreds of possible outcomes “Capt. Tripps” may still be on the table in some, as of now, yet unheard of way.

Obviously, there must be some way for people to fight this off or there wouldn’t be survivors. So how do people recover if there is no immune response? A lot here just doesn’t make sense. How much is propaganda and that’s why?

[Covenantor]

"....your primary goal should be: STAY OUT OF THE DAMNED HOSPITAL."

Needs to be repeated.

Barring immediate life threatening conditions stay away from ER especially. Consult your doctor first.

Had occassion to resort to ER for cardiac problem...while waiting for test results in the ERC observation unit had the chance to survey my surroundings...noticed seriously cracked baseboard tiles, some with pieces missing, exposing sizeable voids, perfect places for breeding nasties. Sloppy cheap remodeling in one of the richest counties in the USA. Left against medical advice soon as test results returned negative.

[Crim]

“The short read: Wash your hands. A lot. Have three weeks worth of food. And if it appears in your town, stay the hell away from the hospital if you want to live.”

See was that so hard?

And...duh.

*grin*

[griffin]

Veryyy Nice. Thanks for all you do from the NH side of the Conn.

[Black Agnes]

I really think we’ve likely got designer antivirals on the shelf somewhere that will ameliorate this for pretty much all but the severe cases that might have succumbed to something else anwyays.

The hope is that we have enough and can ramp up rapidly if we don’t.

[griffin]

You LOVE these threads. You’re addicted.

[4Liberty]

I am not worried about this:

(1) We've heard there's a "2%" mortality rate with coronavirus compared to below 1% for regular flu.

I strongly suspect the actual % of deaths to infections for Coronavirus is MUCH lower.

Commie countries are notorious for fabricating data and false numbers. I don't think they have a handle on the number of people with infections - most of them mild, not "deadly."

(2) Prices for supplies imported from China are actual data we can use, to verify what is happening. If we see prices rising dramatically over the next few months - that will confirm it is really deadly, not just widespread sniffles.

(3) The hysteria about this Virus, to date, seems mostly a bunch of last gasp, "RUSSIA"! type spin from the 'Rats as their non-serious POTUS "candidates" circle the drain......

[Georgia Girl 2]

We are so prepped we can only get one car in the garage. I think we went too far. 😆

[Crim]

“Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity, but don’t rule out malice.” Heinlein

“Or sarcasm” Crim

[null and void]

Don't hold back, tell us how you really feel!

[Bitman]

Just went to the Walstore here in Podunk Arkansas. No panic buying yet, but toilet paper shelves are a little empty and you can’t find a face mask anywhere in town.

Hand sanitizer also seems to be a popular item as everyone seemed to have some in their cart, but there seemed to be a substantial supply still available.

[Man from Oz]

I do have a case of Costco vodka and a couple cases of those ranch beans with the jalapenos put aside for a rainy day!

[GreyHoundSailor]

We were in Lowe’s a couple days ago and an elderly worker there told us all the Chinese students at the local university bought all the masks and respirators they had.

[redshawk]

.....couple cases of those ranch beans with the jalapenos....

...
Lol
With the japs are the best. ...the only kind that I buy.

Another is ramen. ..boil water and you have a tasty noodle soup....