Posted on 04/30/2019 9:38:30 AM PDT by SMGFan
The big election this week are the primaries on both sides for the special election in NC-3. Polls close at 7:30 PM ET tomorrow and we will be liveblogging.
NC-3 (R, D): NC-3 is an R+12 seat covering much of the rural easternmost part of the state around the Outer Banks. The population of the seat is concentrated in the so-called “Inner Banks”, a collection of small cities and rural areas including Greenville, Jacksonville, New Bern, Elizabeth City, and Kinston. There are a ridiculous 26 (!!!) candidates in this field, including 17 (!!!) Republicans. Of those 17 Republicans, 14 are notable and at least 10 are likely to take a significant number of votes. With so many Republicans, a GOP primary runoff seems pretty close to certain, even with the low threshold of just 30% needed to clinch outright.
[After the Republicans are identified]
Overall, this race seems a muddled mess, and CW seems to be betting very strongly on a runoff. Murphy is probably the only candidate with any hope of crossing 30, but that seems like a very long shot, and even his position in the runoff is far from guaranteed. Murphy, Perry, Rouse, Cairns, Law, and Shepard would all seem to have good chances of making a runoff, while DeLuca, Moore, Clark, Nix, Boyd, and Speciale all could have a shot at snagging a runoff spot as well. My personal guess is that there will be a runoff between Murphy and one of Perry, Rouse, Cairns, or Law, but in a field this muddled, where it is very possible that scarcely over 10% could be enough to make the runoff, just about anything could happen. Across the aisle on the Democratic side, there are six candidates, three of them notable.
(Excerpt) Read more at rrhelections.com ...
General election 9/10/19
MCB Camp Lejeune......................
Am extremely good friends with one of the Republican candidates. He’s as principled conservative/pro-life/pro-Second/limited government as you’re ever apt to find.
Which is the local GROPElites salted the primary with so many “conservative “ candidates. So the good ones get overwhelmed, their chosen one gets many votes and leads into the runoff.
Strong possibility.
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