When things like mag field flips happen on a scale of thousands or tens of thousands of years, then I don’t see a reason to take the alarmists point of view. The prediction models as to the earths magnetic core just aren’t there. They have to be updated every 5 years (IGRS, WMM) to get present values and the future is strictly extrapolated. Not really predictive. Just best guess.
I can agree with that. This article has a pretty good discussion, and a link to the original paper:
https://phys.org/news/2018-04-earth-magnetic-field-reverse.html
That said, there is fairly good evidence that these reversals happen, roughly, every 750k to 800k years, and it’s been about 780k years since the last one. (I am a little unclear on how often “excursions” to near zero field occur, which might be just as important as flips, since the problem is not the reversal itself, it is the loss of the field protection if it goes to zero or near zero.)
Still, going with the 750k to 800k year recurrence, and ~780k years since the last flip, I think a prudent civilization should say to itself, “Ya’ know, maybe we should put a little thought into how to best prepare for such an event, since adequate preparations might necessitate a planet wide effort of multiple generations’ time, and there appears to be a significant chance the next event will be in the next few thousand years. It will also help to better understand how much warning we may get, and how long dangerously low magnetic field levels will last.”
Further out, say, a few thousand years or more*, assuming something else doesn’t kill us off, putting up a “substitute” field during an event should be possible.
*Whether we humans will be advanced enough to create that capability in under 3000 years or so is iffy to me.
I look at these things much as I face living in a tornado prone area, but adjusted, since the “in any given year” risk of a flip is low, but the consequences to civilization are immensely higher than tornados here and there. The risk to me personally is nil, but the risk to human civilization, and therefore the need to think in appropriate time spans, is significant. There’s no need to panic or be alarmist: Do the research and as knowledge is gained, begin to plan accordingly.
In the case of tornados (and I’ve had my house wrecked by one), I similarly do not panic, but I do try to plan appropriately: I am a bit of a weather buff, have insurance, a generator, and a safe refuge. :-)
Loss of freedoms? Now, THAT is an imminent threat. Kyrsten Sinema getting elected in AZ? Where’s my vomit pail...