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Kavanaugh and Probabilities
Market Ticker ^ | 09/17/2018 | Karl Denninger

Posted on 09/17/2018 5:26:24 AM PDT by rb22982

Ah, so now we have it...

Ford, a 51-year-old registered Democrat who has published in academic journals and has trained students in clinical psychology, described the alleged incident in The Washington Post on Sunday, saying it occurred during a summer day in the 1980s at a Maryland house where teens had gathered. Ford claimed she headed upstairs to a bathroom when she was suddenly pushed onto a bed, as rock-and-roll music blared. However, Ford told The Post she did not recall exactly who owned the house, how she came to be at the house, or how the gathering was arranged. She remembered only that the house was in Montgomery County, near a country club, and that parents were not present.

So she doesn't know who's house it was, why she was there, what the "gathering" was about (gee, I wonder.) Now let's deal with FeinSwine first. If, and I stress if, this accusation is truthful Feinswine should be drawn and quartered for sitting on it for two months. In fact such is misprision of a felony, a crime itself, and for that the prime bitch employing alleged Chinese spies should go to prison -- right now.

But back to the claimed accusation.
There are several possibilities:

1. She was assaulted, and by Kavanaugh. In other words, her account is accurate.
2. She was not assaulted; the "playing around" was sexual, was consensual at some point, she stopped consenting and so did the sexual escapades while her clothes were still on. But now, being a hard-left "professor", an avowed activist who has attempted to conceal that fact by sanitizing her social media (gee, why, if it's not material?) she suddenly changes her mind about kissing a boy and playing "grinder" with him 35 years later.
3. She was assaulted but it was not Kavanaugh and 35 years later he's convenient to attack because she hates him and his political stance; 35 years prior he was perhaps somewhere within 10 or 20 miles at the time and he can't prove otherwise.
4. There was a party, she was (perhaps) drinking, others were (probably) drinking, everyone had fun and went home, but she was bent about words exchanged or being jilted and turned it into "assaulted" over the space of 35 years. Think that doesn't happen? Yes it does, and it sometimes doesn't take 35 years either; who remembers the Duke LaCrosse team accused by a stripper of gang-rape that, by all evidence, never happened at all? Or shall we discuss Tawana Brawley?

Note that none of those means you fail a polygraph, by the way -- especially if you have months to study for it and practice -- and are trained in psychological responses. Nor do we have the questions and the raw data. So the value of said "event" (the polygraph) is zero. The best polygraphs are not infallible -- and when taken by the interested party with a hand-picked examiner and questions are in fact worthless.

The other person accused of being there denies that anything of that sort ever happened at all. In other words, not 1 or 2. Either 3, 4, or it was made up entirely.

Now add into the mix this: The alleged "victim" has more animus and thus reason to lie as a consequence of her political orientation and advocacy than did the Duke LaCrosse stripper. That may have simply been a matter of not getting a "respectful enough" tip for her dancing gig.

Finally, it appears she told nobody at the time -- not even her best (female) friend. How many women tell nobody about an incomplete assault like this -- or any other incident when they have a bad time at a party? None. Ever. Unless they have no friends. But I'll assume she did, and like every other young woman of that time and the current time, told her bestie(s) everything. Especially something like this. If it happened, that is.

Sexual assault is serious whether incomplete and attempted or completed sexual assault. But there's no evidence to back up this claim, there's no pattern of behavior, there are dozens of women who have known Kavanaugh since High School and have said nothing of that sort was ever perpetrated by him to their knowledge or with or against them and the accuser lacks any ability to provide any sort of evidence at all nor can she even tell anyone why she was at the alleged location, how it was organized, it's purpose or what she was doing before and during the event in question despite wearing a one-piece bathing suit under street clothes -- and she claims he allegedly tried to remove the suit first (what?)

Oh, and both the accuser and Feinswine are known to want to derail Kavanaugh by any means possible -- Feinswine has specifically so-stated, yet she sat on the very thing that could have done so for two months. This implies that she knows the claim is false because otherwise she would have been best served in her interests, which she has publicly stated, by immediately both releasing it and forcing an investigation -- in July.

I call bs and believe Feinswine sat on this allegation for two months because she did investigate it, knows it's a lie and also knows that if she played the card in July she would have gotten caught and not only would Kavanaugh be confirmed the consequences would be potentially fatal to the Demoncrat party.


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: christineford; kavanaugh; p4hr; p4sr; phr; psr; supremecourt; ussc
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To: TalBlack

One day in the 1980s? Was it at band camp? Is there a blue dress for rent someplace kept in a sealed plastic bag for between 35 and 38 years? You know, just in case this guy ever gets the nod to be a SCJ? But, you know NONE of the lsm assclowns will ask any of that.


21 posted on 09/17/2018 6:11:15 AM PDT by rktman (Enlisted in the Navy in '67 to protect folks rights to strip my rights. WTH?)
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To: Toespi
You can line up 100 fifteen year old girls and not one of them know what county they live in . . .

Yes and no. Country girls will all know because the country fair is a summer ritual. City girls, not so much.

22 posted on 09/17/2018 6:12:55 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (ObaMao: Fake America, Fake Messiah, Fake Black man. How many fakes can you fit into one Zer0?)
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To: rb22982

My problem with the B!t@k3z story is: Kavanaugh has had extensive background checks over the past 25 years, even it was by the corrupt (Left D leaning) FBI; same grounds as T. Kennedy’s Coke can pubic hair attack on Justice Clarence Thomas (probably Kennedy’s hair 2 begin with); where was she before? Retrained? No, she was a pussy hat parade POS (see Breitbart). JMO but seems these Pro Abortion i(D)iots will lie about anything...including Roe V Wade and related Constitutional violation.


23 posted on 09/17/2018 6:24:28 AM PDT by Tuketu (The i(D)iot Platform is splinters bound by crazy glue. TRUMP is the solvent.)
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To: Drew68

FeinSwine... (snicker), that’s funny!


24 posted on 09/17/2018 6:25:43 AM PDT by MyKidsDad73 (My apologies for any irreverent humor that you may find offensive. : ))
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To: rb22982

https://www.pacificpundit.com/2018/09/16/christine-blasey-ford-revenge-parents-foreclosure/


25 posted on 09/17/2018 6:28:40 AM PDT by knarf (I say things that are true, I have no proof, but they're true.)
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To: rb22982

Would it perhaps be so hilarious if a different classmate came forward and proclaimed, “yes, I was the one who did this to the girl, not Kavenaugh”. Then another guy and another guy. “I’m Spartacus” moments. Take that Senator Cory.

Can someone post the screen shot of the lunatic in “Dirty Harry” laughing, making a noise that sounds like “LOLOLOLOLOLOL” as he is running in the stadium football field? I think he invented “laughing out loud”.


26 posted on 09/17/2018 6:43:10 AM PDT by AlexisHeavyMetal1981 (Z)
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To: AlexisHeavyMetal1981

One would suffice, excellent idea.


27 posted on 09/17/2018 6:46:54 AM PDT by mad_as_he$$ (If I knew when I was going to need my gun, I wouldn't need my gun.)
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Comment #28 Removed by Moderator

To: rb22982

I have no respect for any democrat and will never vote democrat ever. They are despicable. They are willing to destroy a good man for their cause.

Their viciousness is pathological.


29 posted on 09/17/2018 6:59:24 AM PDT by I want the USA back (Cynicism is the only refuge in a world that is determined to eliminate itself.)
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To: VTenigma

There are plenty of other reasons to disbelieve the nutcase than the bathroom issue. Don’t forget this was a teen party. Beer drinking. Downstairs bathrooms could’ve been occupied. I think it was Archie Bunker who said, “you can never buy beer, you just rent it.”


30 posted on 09/17/2018 7:02:39 AM PDT by afsnco (18 of 20 in AF JAG)
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To: rb22982
I see the purpose of the Dems doing this as:

1) To tar Kavanaugh for life. If he gets on SCOTUS, every vote he makes will be followed by "...who was accused of sexually assaulting an under-aged girl in high school" in the "news" media.

2) It will be used by the Dems in the mid-term elections against the Repubs: "The Republicans voted to put on the Supreme Court a man who has been accused of sexually assaulting a minor girl!!! Do you want to support that?"

31 posted on 09/17/2018 7:07:42 AM PDT by jeffc (The U.S. media are our enemy)
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To: rb22982

I call bs and believe Feinswine sat on this allegation for two months because she did investigate it, knows it’s a lie and also knows that if she played the card in July she would have gotten caught and not only would Kavanaugh be confirmed the consequences would be potentially fatal to the Demoncrat party.
******

Besides, why not hang onto it until the next nominee, in case they’re able to derail him without it? Just find a new accomplice willing to play the game. I’m sure there’d be a lot in it for the next participant. This is an 11th hour Hail Mary.


32 posted on 09/17/2018 7:18:17 AM PDT by FrdmLvr (They never thought she would lose.)
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To: knarf
I have researched this. There was no foreclosure. On 08/08/96 UMLIC-EIGHT CORP, the lender, filed a request for foreclosure of the Blaseys' property at 17 Masters Court, Potomac. On 08/13/96 Judge Michael D. Mason granted that request. According to the Montgomery County Land Records, on December 17, 1996, the Blaseys refinanced the property with Chevy Chase Bank. On 01/27/97 Judge Martha Kavanaugh signed UMLIC's motion to dismiss the foreclosure.

So the Blaseys refinanced the property, paid the foreclosing lender, and a foreclosure never occurred. Judge Kavanaugh's only involvement was to sign the dismissal of the foreclosure action, which would hardly create any animosity towards her or Brett by the Blaseys. It is also important to understand that foreclosures in Maryland are largely administrative. They are not adversarial proceedings in which a judge ultimately picks a side.

I am not trying to defend this woman, but it's not an important find. It means nothing. There are much more effective ways to attack her. Bringing up something as irrelevant as this makes us look desperate.

33 posted on 09/17/2018 7:36:07 AM PDT by KevinB (I do not care for that Obama fellow.)
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To: ping jockey
In addition to all this, Kavanaugh’s mother was presiding judge at Ford’s parents property foreclosure trial. Revenge is a strong motivator.

See post 33.

34 posted on 09/17/2018 7:37:32 AM PDT by KevinB (I do not care for that Obama fellow.)
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To: PghBaldy

The committee votes on the 20th. The full Senate votes by end of month. Kavanagh will be on the bench Oct 1st.


35 posted on 09/17/2018 7:45:51 AM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
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To: I want the USA back

After watching these clowns’ tactics for many decades, I’m convinced the Devil is a Dem!


36 posted on 09/17/2018 7:47:08 AM PDT by caprock
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To: TalBlack

According to WaPo, the three other boys have been named and contacted. The name of the boy allegedly in the room with Kavanaugh and the accuser is in some of the news stories along with yearbook scans.


37 posted on 09/17/2018 7:48:58 AM PDT by Wayne07
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To: rktman
Hoo lee crap! I just re-remembered I was born in Montgomery county MD. Does that implicate me?

You're posting on FR, so GUILTY!

38 posted on 09/17/2018 8:08:00 AM PDT by Gil4 (And the trees are all kept equal by hatchet, ax and saw)
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To: Gil4

Well yeah, that goes with the territory. ;-)


39 posted on 09/17/2018 8:27:39 AM PDT by rktman (Enlisted in the Navy in '67 to protect folks rights to strip my rights. WTH?)
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To: KevinB

True... and of more relevance is her membership in the Soros-funded group Physicians for Human Rights. This group of amnesty activists has also worked with a similarly named group [also apparently partly Soros funded] called Physicians for Social Responsibility.
The latter group involves people who were involved in the Kitty Kelly / Dan Rather forgery of supposed W Bush TANG documents, also Democrats involved in the Amerithrax case as promoters of the false accusations of racism against researcher Steven Hatfill, who later won his case against the government for destroying his reputation.


40 posted on 09/17/2018 8:31:57 AM PDT by piasa (Attitude adjustments offered here free of charge)
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