The hard facts are that every economic factor is up and up big. We had a 4.2% GDP and the same Fed office who correctly predicted that is predicting a 4.7% GDP for 3rd Quarter numbers. 56% of voters say Democrats are out of step with America and 85% of blue collar workers - the ones who turned out big for Trump are satisfied with the economy. No blue wave coming PERIOD!
the problem is the rats are chomping at the bit to vote..unlike 2010 and 2014 when the GOPe benefited from the Tea Party, they’ve done NOTHING to GOTV...
Same as 2016 for me: not taking any polls seriously but I’m dead serious about showing up first thing in the morning Nov. 6 and voting for the red team.
The fake polls are intended to discourage campaign donations.
Who wants to donate to a loser?
My question - are federal elections still open and honest?
We see how much our DC elites, rig everything else. What remains clean?
They have a poll-model built for four key factors: (1) nothing being accomplished by GOP leadership, (2) a black President who says he’s going to resolve the black community issues, (3) a marginal commerce landscape and nothing much to be thrilled over the GDP, and then (4) a news media blindly trusted.
I would suggest that the model is basically broke. I might even go and suggest that they’ve never (in 200 years) had to deal with something like Trump. He’s like the good ‘Frankenstein’ that saves the village, prevents the dam from bursting, saves kids from the wolves, and paints portraits of faraway landscapes.
The press lies to us - - and they lie to themselves:
“Why Trump Will Never Make the Ballot” – The Daily Beast (8/20/2015)
“Relax, Donald Trump Can’t Win” – The Nation (6/21/2016)
“On Nov. 9, let’s pretend Donald Trump never happened” – Chicago Tribune (10/24/2016)
As the old saying goes – “the more things change, the more they stay the same” – so it seems with the predictions for President Trump’s failure now.
“Poll by sinking poll, Trump inches toward impeachment” – The Washington Post (8/31/2018)
“Poll finds Trump would lose in 2020 against literally any Democrat” – AOL (3/7/2018)
“No, impeachment will not crash the stock market” – Politico (8/23/2018)
“How Trump Lost Re-election in 2020” – The New York Times (7/29/2018)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3684806/posts
According to the latest McLaughlin national monthly generic poll published on 8/29/2018, a poll of likely voters, it is 44 R/44 D.
http://mclaughlinonline.com/2018/08/29/ma-poll-national-monthly-august/
Given the #WalkAway movement, and the 30+% support for Trump among Blacks, there is zero chance that the turnout models used by most polling organizations are anywhere near correct.
I think black turn out will be much higher in 2018 and 2020. However, they don’t be voting D.
Modern polling is built to direct, not to predict. The media realizes they drive opinion and are actively engaged in doing that daily.
The polls are oversampled democRATS and thus show a preference for democRATS.
They are intended to drive public opinion, not reflect it.
I don’t agree with his premise of using the media as innocent participants in all of this. They are the pollsters and they are lying to us. Nobody is lying to them.
I get calls from political pollsters 2 - 3 times a week. I always lie to them.
If they are doing that again this time, that could affect some Senate and gubernatorial races.
But it's not likely to affect House races much, since African-Americans tend to be concentrated in House districts that are already held by the Democrats, districts Republicans won't win.
If the polls are wrong this time it would probably be because they overestimate opposition to Trump by suburban voters.
If they don't, they may be on target this time.
Hillary’s 95% chance of winning was built on FRAUD. They had the election rigged (at least they thought they did) so they created the polls to match the outcome and cover up the fraud.
illegals will 100% vote for her...many times each.
I don’t believe every poll by any means but I think there’s an 80% chance the Dems take the House. The best chance to head that off is to make the races about impeachment and the border. However the RINO’S will steer clear of that and make it about “the strong economy” or something else calculated to be uncontroversial.
The economy being strong doesn’t drive people to the polls, but RINO’S are idiots. At least this could have the benefit of purging a lot of RINO’S.
Huh? You mean how the media used made up lies.
But...Russia.
I also noticed that at least in the public polls the state polls were more than useless using sample sizes of 500 to 800. Did the candidates have better polls than these?
I don’t care what the polls say. I don’t care if they’re certain every Republican will win or every Republican will lose.
I know I will vote Republican on November 6th, and I will be giving rides to stay-at-homes and older folks who need them. I have already been calling, asking at church, or when we meet at the local grocery, etc., asking them if it’s ok to periodically remind them and be a driver for them come election day.
If it’s cold and raining I’ll have the truck heated and hot chocolate. If it’s hot I’ll I’ve the cool air on and a diet coke or water!
I have a list of folks I know who I’m doing this for.
Imagine if EVERY FReeper did the same?
See my tagline.