Global Population Growth Ceased in 1988...Population Has Only Grown Older Since

Econimica ^ | 07/19/2018 | Chris Hamilton

[SeekAndFind]

Authored by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog,

The world stopped growing about 1988... and has only grown older since.

Global births, per five year periods, according to the UN.

Births and UN medium and low variant estimates through 2040...plus my best estimate of the most likely births. Despite the significantly larger (older) total population, births continue to languish and appear set to decline. Since 2000, total births are declining everywhere except Africa.

Assuming the UN medium variant...chart below shows births by Africa, S. Asia (India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Iran, Sri Lanka) and the world minus Africa / S. Asia..

Or, looking at births by GNI (gross national income) per capita. Only the poorest nations are having more children, while all other nations (by income) are having significantly fewer (high income and upper middle) or stalling (lower middle income nations).

The next charts below show the child bearing populations, from high, upper middle, lower middle, and low income countries (based on 2016 GNI per capita, detailed by the World Bank HERE).

For the high income countries, peak annual growth in the child bearing population took place as of 1963, but the total child bearing population didn't peak until 2009. The population capable of child birth will continue falling through at least 2030 and likely far longer.

The upper middle income countries peak annual growth took place as of 1985 and the total child bearing population also turned negative in 2009...and again will continue declining indefinitely.

Lower middle income countries peak annual child bearing population growth took place in 2000 and annual and total growth continues to decelerate.

Low income countries annual child bearing population growth is still rising and not likely to peak until around 2040, while the total child bearing population will continue rising until perhaps 2060.

Finally, the best proxy for economic activity is energy consumption. The chart below shows actual and EIA estimate energy consumption through 2040. Clearly, the population growth in S. Asia (lower middle income) and particularly in Africa (low income nations) has not and is not anticipated to result in significant energy consumption or economic activity.

What that looks like as a %.

Somebody should write about this stuff.

[Billthedrill]

This is one of those “rate of increase is decreasing” trends but it certainly is significant. How the Zero Population Growth mania turned into the “we need to import all the world’s poor people” is a bit of a mystery to me. Less than replacement reproduction does not mean the society is going to diminish to zero “if this trend continues” because it never does. It means it will be smaller. That used to be considered a Good Thing although it’s tough to run a redistributive welfare state that way. Capitalism deals with it in terms of increasing production. The former will fail, the latter will adapt.

[Boomer]

birth rate is no longer increasing, but population will continue to grow until the death rate catches up to the birth rate.

It does get confusing when talking about 'rates' vs real actual numbers. A rate of 10% of 100 is of course 10 but maybe the actual number is 200.

[fireman15]

Some Muslim nations’ birthrates may be in decline, but in many places their fertility rate is far higher than the rest of the population. This applies here as well in Sub Saharan Africa. Approximately 50% of the population of Sub Saharan Africa is currently made up of Muslims. This percentage has been growing significantly not declining just as it is in the USA and Europe.

[fireman15]

Islam is the world’s fastest growing religion. This is due mostly to their high fertility rate.

“the number of Muslims is expected to increase by 70% – from 1.8 billion in 2015 to nearly 3 billion in 2060.”

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/04/06/why-muslims-are-the-worlds-fastest-growing-religious-group/

[Mrs. Don-o]

Yes, Islam is the fastest-growing religion. They have a higher fertility rate than, say, Christians in post-Christian Europe or North America, but they do not have the highest fertility rate --- that would be the black Africans of Sub-Saharan Africa, who are predominantly Catholic, Protestant, Pentecostal (these three are Christian) and Animist..

Here's a Fun Fact: Throughout the ummah (the Arabic term for the global Muslim community), the average number of children born to women is falling dramatically.

And here's another one:

With extremely rapid fertility decline — and the descent into sub-replacement fertility — a number of Muslim-majority populations are already set on course for very rapid population aging.

Those two are worth the click. And there's a lot more proof for dramatically falling Muslim demographics here (LINK)

[Sequoyah101]

That is simply astounding!