I post this question on all of these threads just to get the perspectives of other folks here on FR:
In 1990, U.S. exports to Mexico were $30 billion, and imports from Mexico were $28 billion. We had a trade surplus of $2 billion with Mexico.
In 2016, U.S. exports to Mexico were $231 billion, and imports from Mexico were $294 billion. We had a trade deficit of $63 billion with Mexico.
In terms of our trade with Mexico, was the U.S. better off in 1990 or 2016?
I linked a different article by mistake, so no, the article doesn’t match what I excerpted. My mistake, sorry.
The actual article I wanted to link was this one:
http://www.nationaleconomicseditorial.com/2017/04/21/automation-job-loss/
Although to address your question, I think it’s a red herring to look at trade volume as indicative of economic health, in any way.
Recall that the US was the fastest growing economy during 1850 and 1950, and we actually had minimal international trade.
So the volume of trade with Mexico (or any other country) is actually irrelevant. Trade follows economic growth (because you produce surpluses), it doesn’t cause it.
That being said, I think trade was healthier before NAFTA, because right now there are hundreds of thousands unemployed, whereas before this wasn’t an issue.
Here’s the data:
US GDP 1990 8.91 trillion
US GDP 16.81 trillion
Mexico GDP 1990 262.7 billion
Mexico GDP 2016 1.5 Trillion
1990 US exports to Mexico, $30 billion, o.33% of US GDP., and 11.4% of Mexico’s GDP.
2016 US exports to Mexico, $231 billion, 1.37% of US GDP, an appreciation of 415% over 1990 from 0.33% to 1.37%.
That $231 billion was 15% of Mexico’s GDP, an appreciation of 4% over 1990 (from 11.4% to 15%).
1990 US imports from Mexico, $28 billion, 0.31% of US GDP, and 10.6% of Mexico’s GDP.
2016 US imports from Mexico’s, $294 billion, 1.7% of US GDP, an appreciation of 548% over 1990. Those exports represented 19.6% of Mexico’s GDP, an appreciation of 9% over 1990 in terms of Mexico’s GDP.
Draw your own conclusions.