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Sure, and nearly all 1861 Unionists (including Lincoln) believed that had the Deep South Fire Eaters contented themselves with declaring secession and setting up a Confederacy, the Union could not use force to stop them.

It would have cost the United States, 3/4ths of all export trade with Europe. It would have wrecked the shipping industry, the manufacturing industry, and would have left the Union Coastal states in serious economic distress.

And you think the Power Baron/Government coalition was too stupid to notice this?

If you think this war was about anything other than lots and lots of money, you are naive.

DiogenesLamp: "It would have cost the United States, 3/4ths of all export trade with Europe.
It would have wrecked the shipping industry, the manufacturing industry, and would have left the Union Coastal states in serious economic distress."

Totally false, and we know that for certain because it's just what did happen in 1861 -- Deep Cotton South exports ended, virtually 100%.
And the result was: Northern cities adjusted, adapted and continued to prosper.
Meanwhile, Federal tariff revenues fell by only 26% for the year.
So Deep Cotton South exports turned out to be not nearly as important in the North as secessionists then, and pro-Confederates today, believed.

DiogenesLamp: "And you think the Power Baron/Government coalition was too stupid to notice this?
If you think this war was about anything other than lots and lots of money, you are naive."

I am "naïve" about nothing, but you were indoctrinated with Marxist economic dialectics and now can't see anything beyond, or higher.
The basic fact is that people of the time told us why they did what they did, and many mentioned slavery, others preserving the Constitution, but none mentioned your exaggerated economic theories.