Price of .22 Ammunition to Drop

Gun Watch ^ | 15 November, 2016 | Dean Weingarten

[marktwain]

In the run up to the 2016 election, the price of .22 ammunition has been fluctuating up and down around 6 cents a cartridge for baseline bulk ammunition.  The reasons are clear.  Production of .22 ammunition is up by about two billion rounds a year, responding to over the top demand for the last four years.

Part of the demand is structural.  Many new gun owners and shooters have been created.  Many of the younger members were raised on first person shooter games like Doom, Golden Eye, Battlefield, and Call of Duty.

People in the industry have reported that the new generation of shooters is more likely to go through 500 rounds of .22 in a shooting session, instead of 50.  Moreover, decent .22 rifles and pistols have become relatively cheap.  A Marlin model 60 today can be had, brand new, for $150.   A Savage model 64 can be had for $116, and the Mossberg semi-auto for $109.

The Model 60 cost about $40 in 1960.  A constant dollar calculator shows that would be $322 in 2016.  So the price has dropped in half in constant dollars. Another way to look at this is the minimum wage in 1960 was a dollar an hour.  It would take a full week of 40 hours to buy the rifle.

Today, the minimum wage (federal) is $7.25.  It would take a person about half a week (21 hours) to buy a model 60 today.  That correlates pretty well with the constant dollar calculator.

There are a 100 million or more .22 rifles and pistols in the United States.  They are incredibly popular, and with very little care they last for many decades.


Some of the increased 2 billion rounds a year will go to feeding the increased structural demand.

But a considerable amount of the demand has been a bubble created by concern over gun control.  It is one of the few areas where President Barack Obama was stymied by the American people and Congress.  Hillary Clinton fed the fear with her campaign rhetoric and potential Supreme Court justices.

With the election of Donald Trump, that fear will be subsiding.  Many .22 owners have built up a stockpile of a few thousand rounds of ammunition.  That ammunition has not been shot, and it will be around for a while.

I expect the demand for .22 ammunition to drop when the reality of a Trump administration hits home.  The current protests and riots are not helping.  Nor are the conspiracy theories about a Trump assassination.

After President Trump is safely inaugurated, and starts to move his legislative agenda, demand will drop and prices will fall.

I expect bulk .22 ammunition to be available for 4 cents a round by October of 2017.

©2016 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice is included.

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[KC Burke]

I kind of began a 22 WMR thing by accident. First I got a Ruger LCR in 22 Mag when they came out. The guy at Cabela’s was surprised they had one at the time in 2013 ( I think ) and I got it for a little off the MSRP. I later got a LCR in 38 which I think has a better double action trigger pull but that is another story. I then started the idea of a “cowboy combo” in 22 WMR. Well on Father’s Day weekend I got the new Savage A22 which is a semi-auto 22 WMR patterned after their last year’s A17. Four power scope, good sling, removable bi-pod and all I lack are extra 10 round rotary magazines.

I like this hot cartridge because it shoots flat in the range these older eyes can handle.

[MHGinTN]

The clue to the metal top being tilted to one side was the red follower visible where the metal top is supposed to settle down onto the black plastic body of the mag. Was getting a jam every third or fourth round. After opening it up and straightening the metal top, narry a hiccup from the next fifty rounds through it.

[.45 Long Colt]

I really like the idea of that Savage. I have not seen one yet. I bet it’s a lot of fun. I’ve been considering an LCR in .22WMR for one of my daughters. I wish she was comfortable with .38 or .380, but she’s not.

I’ve got a North American Arms revolver combo that I inherited, a cowboy combo (Ruger Single Six), and I’ve got a Marlin bolt rifle (model 925M I believe). I’d shoot .22 WMR more often if I could get it.

I’m with you, I really like the round. My father-in-law has Henry rifles in both .22LR and .22WMR. Back in the 90’s we did some comparison shooting of the two. We shot a few hundred CCI from each at various types of targets and distances. The .22 Mag hits much harder and it was easier for us to shoot accurately at a distance. There was nothing scientific about any of it, but that was our clear perception. It’s not the best selection for either hunting or personal protection, but in a pinch it can handle both. My only hesitation about the round has always been its outsized cost.

[KC Burke]

The Ruger LCR looks identical in 22Mag and 38 Caliber but my wife likes the trigger reach, take-up and action better in the 38.

I can’t tell you that I feel the 22 WMR kicks all that much less to me.

I will say, that it is a snub meant for hallway short distances and easy carry. Its iron sights aren’t as good as the night sight version of my small S&W MP Shield in 9 mm. The shield is small and even easier to conceal, but the version with the night sights and 3 mags is a great deal because you have a pistol that can actually hit something at 25 yards if you had to and you have old eyes like mine. (Mild nearsightedness combined with aging farsightedness and needing more light.)

[moovova]

Thanks again. I’ll pull the BX25s out and look at them today.

[Titan Magroyne]

I'm marking this one as well for the BX25 mag feeders. Thank you for the tip!

It would be wonderful for my better half & I to do some .22 shooting before winter closes down on us. I spent a few minutes yesterday raking pine needles off our parking pad. Tho chilly, it was lovely to feel the sun beating down.

But back to shooting, I made a point of buying my 1022 with a handsomely figured stock. Since then it's rarely seen the light of day. Ditto the Heritage revolver. We need to go blow holes into a bunch of paper plates, Honey!

[MHGinTN]

When the metal top is properly aligned, the BX25s run flawlessly in my 1022s. They feed the Aquila 60 grain so well, it has become my home defense round now ... to get me to a battle rifle of course.