this a.m., Trump has inched up from 31 to 34 plus.
slowly....Natalie is having to come to grips with reality.
None of the recent state polls have anything but good for Trump. Positive numbers are rolling in from everywhere: NH, PA, CO....
Just read his latest blog post about 10 minutes ago. The point that stands out is his repeated ‘don’t trust the poll leads’. I think he knows the tide is against Clinton but doesn’t want to actually come out and say it.
It’s going to be a close election. It will probably be determined by just tens of thousands of voters in a few key states. I’m not sure I buy the Trump landslide brewing yet, but I could very well be wrong. Democrats will turn their people out if they have to drag them kicking and screaming. We’ve seen how powerful there turnout machine can be the last eight years. Granted, Obama is not on the ballot, but they will not give up power without an all out fight.
Who is Nate Silver? What is this 5-38? Reliable?
In the end, it's not the averages... it's the FINISH! :-)
Rasmussen has Trump past the 50% mark.
Yeah she’s wining alright. After she gets creamed by Trump she’ll be wining some more and when thy come to arrest her she will have been wining so much they’ll have to carry her to the big house.
I don’t care about 538, but the polls have really been moving for trump in New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado... A lot of these have moved from hillary being clearly ahead to trump being competitive or tied
The dam is breaking, for sure. Viva la landslide.
Probably every less-than-rock-solid Dem state will turn to Trump by election time, including states like Oregon, Minnesota, and New Jersey.
Trump has been improving on this page for several days.
I suspect Nate is going to have to give him a lead over the weekend.
Scroll down to the “intestine chart” and it looks to me like one more state would give Trump the lead.
She will be in single digits by Monday! LOL.
Who cares what he thinks? He has been wrong on Trump EVERY SINGLE TIME. Unless some major anti-Trump bomb explodes between now and Monday, it is over. :-)
She will be below 0% in 6 days.
He has no idea what he’s doing. He’s a Democrat who predicted Obama would win twice. Big deal. He’s been wrong a lot too.
The “chance of winning” number is not linear to the polls, it’s exponential.
It’s a GIGO problem, based on garbage polls. Plus he adjusts the leader of the polls however he wants. You see that at the state level.
The tide has already turned.