Natie, as all liberrals, lives in his own reality. There is a theory in criminal law that describes a perpetrator as “having known or should have known” what he/she was doing was criminal. Natie and his sidekicks at Real Clear Politics fit this perfectly. Natie knowingly avoids factoring in the clear enthusiasm edge Trump enjoys with his supporters- a consistent 11 points more intense about voting than Clinton supporters. Then to “strengthen” his “argument” he points to his chief enablers at Real Clear Politics that exclude pro Trump polls and include polls from outlets exposed by wikileaks as fakers who fix poll results to suit the DNC. Both are very dishonest people. Both know the turnout model they use is bogus.
Even with a ridiculous D+0 to D+8 reweighting, IBD, most accurate poll of last 3 elections, has Trump +2. In reality, +8.