[Cronos]

While I disagree a lot with Obama, on this matter that we will be discussing UBI more and more over the next couple of decades, he is correct. Why?

• Automation, standardization, componentization to the cloud is only going to exponentially increase over the next 4 years
• This is inevitable - all routine jobs -- whether manual or not -- will be automated.
• All the people who promise to bring factory jobs back to the USA are dreaming. Those jobs are gone forever -- not to China, but into ether: the factories may come back to the USA, but the jobs will be automated.
• About retraining people -- this isn't a solution as only I would think 10% of students have this ability. Even in the wider world where routine jobs are automated, 80% of people can only do this type of a job. I don't believe we can help them when jobs get automated, I don't believe they can be re-trained. And even among current students, the same pareto rule -- 80% will be useful for no job.
• This is not reparations as a good chunk of the people who will be jobless will be white -- and old white people
• The savings rate in the USA is pitiful
• Deflation and zero or negative interest rates means that Defined benefits pensions are going to go bankrupt
• at the same time people are living longer -- so people who saved for 10 years of retirement, will live for 25 years of retirement at the very same time that their pensions will be losing money due to zero/negative interest rates

The UBI has one big advantage -- it will keep the masses quiet. This is nothing more than the "bread" in bread and circuses -- the "circuses" is television -- the number of people addicted to that is incredible, I also include Hulu etc. subscribers. These people are Amusing themselves to death

If you have UBI, you keep the 47% to 80% of people with no job, no prospects quiet. They gets their money and their entertainment.

There are other positives also

1. Lesser chances of people lying to get on medicaid etc. - everyone gets this, so less checking up on welfare chears
2. Lesser administration on welfare -- you just give everyone a cheque for X every month, irrespective of anything elsePerhaps even a simpler tax code?

On the negative side,

1. this ends up creating people with zero motivation,
2. more despair
3. more mindless tv-zombies
4. more irreligion -- people worship the state that gives them food for mind and body (but not for soul)

Basically there is a lot to talk about and there will be more and more clamouring for UBI. I'm not convinced either way right now, but I do wonder what happens to the 47% to 80% of people who are going to be redundant for the future...

[wastoute]

Useless eaters. Guess what happens when they become a burden?

[matt1234]

Most of your bulleted premises are wrong or irrelevant.

This idea is Marxism, pure and simple.

[Valpal1]

I have the same perspective.

I could see starting out with a negative income tax to see how that spurs people to start their own cottage industry. I foresee that there may be a renaissance in skilled artisan crafts for handmade luxury goods.

The street fair / farmers markets are flourishing and the two I attend ban resellers of mass produced goods and the handcrafted items are juried (if the jury committee thinks your stuff is poor quality, unoriginal or uninteresting you don’t get in).

I can also see a UBI at 25-30K combined with a NIT of the same amount leading to a mass exodus of mostly women from the formal job market and having a stay at home parent become the norm again.