Yeah, and the “polls” show Obama with a 55% approval rating too. You believe that?
They’re trying to sell Brooklyn bridges. Don’t buy it. Look at the size of the crowds and the enthusiasm. Trump landslide guaranteed.
But, go ahead and vote. It'll make you feel better.
Polls are guesses. Everyone guesses what the voter turn out will look like and creates a poll to reflect that turn out model. The pollsters who guess correct are anointed as geniuses, the ones who guess wrong are scorned.
You didn’t get the memo? Hillary’s poll numbers have skyrocketed since her brilliant debate performance. /s
In the meantime, especially if they have a motive, they can afford to be as wrong as they want to be.
It's like a TV meteorologist hyping up a "huge" snowstorm for an entire week. This keeps people glued to his latest forecasts. Then the night before the big storm is to hit, he forecasts a partly cloudy day, telling us that the storm is now "heading out to sea." He is seen as making the correct call and people tend to forget he just spent an entire week telling us otherwise.
Short answer, trust the rallies not the polls. Analysis:
Trump rallies are always packed and over several thousand. People wait in line for hours to get in and there is always an overflow crowd. When I watch on Youtube (I’ve watched most of his rallies), his rallies are always viewed live with over 15,000 viewers. Some as high as 45,000. If you go back to view older rallies, you’ll see views from 50,000 to over 150,000.
Contrast to Clinton. Her rallies draw 1,000 or less. They are staged and packed with either paid people (like Pa townhall) or bused in. The live views on YouTube for any of her rallies peaked at about 1,800.
Pence got more live viewers than Clinton for his rallies.
So I wager that the polls are only sampling about 700 people most of which are eager to give a survey. It’s a whole new election when a number of people don’t have landlines and most people hang-up on any solicitation or survey. There are a lot of people that haven’t voted before or in the last few elections that will be voting now. How many times have you seen people going all out to hang Trump signs, decorate yards, etc. I see nothing like this movement for Hillary.
Finally, I look at a similar election, Bush vs. Kerry. All the polls had Kerry up but when you looked at Kerry’s rallies, there was no enthusiasm. Bush’s rallies were good, lively and you could see it in his eyes (like Trump) he cared about the people.
If Trump does ok in the next two debates and there is no major event against Trump (Oct. surprise), he will win.
I have never really know any republican to be winning any poll until way late in the game. I don't remember any republican being declared the winner in a debate except Mittens that one time.
MSM national polling is desperately spun by oversampling Dems.
The state level polling seems to be more consistent, showing a general 6-10% shift toward Trump vis-a-vis Romney in 2012.
Do not believe “the polls”. The drive bystanders are liars.
Tuesday, October 4, 2016
Democrats Fighting for Zombies, While Republicans Try to Protect the Living
There are problems with the dead registering in Virginia and voting in Colorado and California. The most common way that the dead are fraudulently “voting” is via absentee ballot. It is hard for zombies to actually get the polls. The respective parties could not take a more radically different approach.
http://thereplawyer.blogspot.com/
My question is why are pollsters so cheap? Samples of 1000 in a nation of 300 million? So the state polls are useless. The largest I have seen is 450, some as low as 250. The margin of error would be huge.