Posted on 04/20/2016 10:37:33 AM PDT by Dr. Sivana
I'd like to thank Jeff Head for his well written piece on a vexing situation we find ourselves in.
I am a Cruz supporter, and I understand that Trump is likely to win the nomination. If he does, I will vote for him and hope that he is a better president than I expect him to be.
But the fact remains that outside of Trump's home region, the northeast, 50+ % are inclined NOT to vote for him. Cruz in some ways is the last man standing, because he anticipated this kind of struggle and prepared for it in the ways the others didn't (Scott Walker) or couldn't (a half-dozen without financial resources or will for a long fight).
Kasich remains in the race. If Cruz concedes now, without giving up ALL his leverage for the convention by releasing the delegates, Cruz voters either stay home or vote for Kasich, anti-Trump supporters come out, and Kasich might actually win a state or two, and more than a few delegates.
To the degree that the Establishment can still influence the primaries proper, they would go full bore behind Kasich. Cruz' presence actually is a massive distraction and destabilizing influence on the Establishment, which isn't one man, but an oligarchy of factions with considerable overlap but non-identical interests.
Whether we like it or not, Liz Mairs' jab at Melania was the catalyst that pushed both sides in an area from which they cannot retreat before the convention. If Trump thought it was okay to repeat that Cruz was a p**** then, Cruz folding after words would suggest it, but not in the minds of his opponents, but his supporters.
If Cruz pulls out, and he has 600 delegates, Kasich moves up to 400+ delegates, and Rubio and unbound have a few more (with few of the unbound being Trump supporters), and Trump is STILL short of 1,237, the Establishment will still pull all the stops with even LESS reason to go with either Trump or Cruz. I think they would fail, but the damage would be greater than if Cruz stayed in.
Based on my personal definition of Establishment, which allows for close connections with Goldman Sachs (Cruz has his wife's high level employment, Trump certainly has numerous financial arrangements throughout his business empire with them and various other bad players, perhaps out of necessity in his line of work), neither Trump nor Cruz qualify as Establishment. Both are willing to break things, especially rules of decorum in their own ways. Both have the will to make enemies and fight to win.
Most of the Cruz delegates at the convention, including the ones who are bound to Trump, and almost all of the other Trump delegates are needed to ace out the bad guys on rule changes, etc. This is the time for Trump supporters to make their case for boundaries on how state conventions can pick their candidates. You might be surprised how many Cruz supporters can be won over on those kinds of reforms if well-crafted.
This process seemed old back in September, when so many were complaining that Cruz and Trump WEREN'T attacking each other. Today will seem like a long time ago two weeks after the convention. If it is like that for wonks like us, what is it for casual observers? On the other hand, if we have a Romney-style throw in the towel for Mr. Inevitable, the wounds will not heal fully. Cruz or Trump, the Republican Party is being remade. Supporters of both have to be in the mix.
Few of us blame Reagan for staying in until the end even when Ford had the thing sewn up with unbound delegates from NY and PA. Did it cost Ford the election? It was close enough (under 2%) that it might have. I know of no one here blaming Reagan for playing it to the end, and helping to remake the Republican Party in the process. It certainly set up Reagan for 1980.
In my opinion, this is not the time for Cruz to drop out. Trump has not offered Cruz a rapprochement (and likely never will), and Cruz is not convinced that he can't win it all. Cruz retains much of his support, both his and anti-Trump sentiment. If that support should go to Trump or not bother showing up, then the story will write itself.
The rest is also conjecture except that certain candidates, CANDIDATES, aka Lindsay Graham and Carly Fiorina endorsed Cruz.
the bottom line is that it is an absolutely fallacy that because "50% voted against Trump" means they would vote for Cruz. It's a false assumption without any basis in reality.
Then he can go back to the Senate. He allowed the GOPe to box him in-maybe no turning back now. Used and abused by the same people he said he was against.
Trump was the first Yankee since Sherman to burn through the South. You might want to look at who won there.
Cruz was third in FL and OH. No road leads to the White House without FL. Cruz can’t win it, especially with half the base pissed off because their votes were overturned in the primaries because of backroom deals.
Ted’s playing for 2020. Can’t have a Republican president in 2016 to do that
When one achieves 1237, then is the time to unify with no sore loser attitude or sour grapes.
But sour grapes is exactly what we are seeing from Sen Cruz. Usually at this point, the loser would bow out graciously and rally around the front runner. After next Tuesday Cruz will be at least 400 delegates behind Trump. And between now and Cleveland that number will grow. Maybe all the way to Trump reaching the 1237 or damn close. The longer he holds out the more damage is done. We cannot have people sitting out because they cant pull the lever. There is no way Cruz will walk into Cleveland and walk out the nominee. It’s not gonna happen.
“Usually at this point, the loser would bow out graciously”
Romney had 52% of the vote.
Nor did everyone drop out for him.
Trump only 38%. Not even as strong as Romney.
What’s wrong with Trump winning it?
“But the fact remains that outside of Trump’s home region, the northeast, 50+ % are inclined NOT to vote for him.”
In case you have not noticed outside of their home regions even less people vote for Cruz or Kasich.
Personally, I don't think either candidate's support is that inelastic. It may seem that way in the FR echo chamber, but hopefully not in "real life." I will say in contrast that, the longer Cruz waits the less time there is for a thawing of hearts and minds.
Post convention, once engaged with Hillary Clinton, our candidate will be seen in a fresh light and old and hardened positions should soften.
Regarding pulling out, once done the delegates are unbound; the candidate loses control. The state may have some rules for reapportioning delegates before the convention, but if not then rule 16(a)(2) frees the delegates from binding penalties.
-PJ
“That is not a rapprochement from Trump, but one from Hugh Hewitt.”
And yet here’s the direct quote of Cruz om 3/16/2016 about a rapprochement with Trump as Trump’s VP, a possibility Trump has repeatedly mentioned in the past:
“I have absolutely zero interest in doing that,” Cruz said.
So Cruz has already rejected rapprochement and has done so just a month ago, so once again, your statement that “Trump has not offered Cruz a rapprochement (and likely never will)” is completely false and quite on a par with the MANY false statements that Cruz supporters post here over and over again, and then like to quibble and split straws about when confronted with the actual facts, pretty much like Cruz himself.
That's simply not true. The time for the "loser" to back out is when the leader gains a majority, not a weak plurality.
What disturbs me at this point in the campaigns, though, is the fact that most people are now focusing on numbers and 'nominatability' ... while what should still be the primary issue in the election (i.e., the character, courage, consistency of conviction, vision, integrity and honesty of the candidates) has fallen by the wayside.
I spent this morning in Hershey, PA listening to among the most passionate speeches I have ever heard, delivered by a man who is the first man to come along in almost thirty years who may prove fully capable of filling Ronald Reagan’s shoes. And I spent this evening in Lebanon, PA at a meet and greet with Carly Fiorina, one of the most principled women in America today, entirely devoted to the restoration of the American vision, and unwilling to line up behind those who prefer to base their political endorsements on either empty promises or the bandwagon effect.
Then I came home tonight only to hear the dichotomy from the front-runner: snippets of the typical Trump whining, boasting, name-calling, character assassination, and superficial 'policy' enumeration on tonight's news, and I couldn't help but become even more determined to do my (admittedly small) part to see to it that those in whose presence I was privileged to be today prevail.
I have been campaigning for Ted Cruz here in Pennsylvania for almost four weeks now, and intend to continue to do so until next Tuesday’s primary. No, I harbor no pie-in-the-sky belief that Ted will win the popular vote in the Pennsylvania primary, but I believe he will garner a respectable number of Pennsylvania delegates through a combination of faithful, well-organized grassroots support, honest and tireless campaigning, a knowledge of and willingness to abide by, and work hard within the boundaries of, the primary rules established by each individual state, and a genuine love of, and dedication to, the U.S. Constitution and our Founders’ vision.
To know that running a campaign in that well-organized and completely upright manner has been fiercely and viciously denigrated by Donald Trump is infuriating to me.
Ted Cruz understood the existing ground rules going into this election cycle, set up an organization whose roots were in existence even before he announced his candidacy, and has run an absolutely brilliant campaign, within the prescribed rules, and by exhibiting an organizational ability that completely eclipses that shown by his 'brilliant businessman' opponent.
And yet Trump chooses to crucify an opponent who decides to play by the rules and run an honest campaign, while attempting to self-righteously elevate himself ... a man who knew those rules full well from the word go and, rather than expend the time, energy and research needed to win under them, chose to do nothing more than benefit from them, when he could (and he did, quite often), and whine about them, when they did not work to his advantage.
If Ted is successful in winning the republican nomination (presumably on the second or third ballot in Cleveland), those with whom I have been working here in Pennsylvania will redouble our efforts in looking ahead to November. If he is not successful in his bid for the nomination, we will simply re-group and search our hearts for how best to proceed in doing what we can to see to it that Hillary Clinton never takes up residence in the White House.
An aside: Donald Trump won sixty percent of the popular vote in New York yesterday, yet took home ninety-five percent of the delegates. I have not been able to listen as much of the news as I would have liked to today. Please fill me in on how vehemently he was tearing apart the ‘undemocratic’ primary process in New York, in that the percentage of delegates he won was a full fifty-plus percent more than the percentage of the popular vote that he won. He had to be screaming about the ‘rigged, 100% crooked’ unfairness, right?
Cruz cannot win this, there is zero mathematical way forward for him to win, not even on the so called second ballot.
His recalcitrance in accepting defeat seemingly comes from one of two things:
1. Delusion, perhaps some kind of internal insistence that he alone deserves this.
2. He has struck a bargain with the GOPe to do their bidding in hopes of stopping Trump from the magic number.
Now, Jeff did the math in his vanity, I dare you to follow it or show us any scenario where he can win, it's just not there. The likelihood is so big that Trump will get the 1237, there is little hope in stopping him now. Yes, a miracle could happen, and no it is not likely it will.
With that in mind, I think it would be better for him to not be the turd in the punch bowl. There is so much at stake here. The rat machine is loving every minute Cruz stays in, loving every minute the #nevertrumpers gain, loving every #nevertrump superpac ad denouncing him. They are counting the Supreme Court picks and the losses in the house and senate.
You might think that's okay, but the enemy here isn't Trump, it's the totalitarian left.
For the sake of the party, for the sake of the country's future, he should take a deep breath and unite the party behind the front runner.
If he does not, I personally think his political career is over. If he takes the road to unify, he will regain his political future that was once so bright. He is young, and will go far.
If he chooses to fight on, and wins, he will be supplanted by another candidate, or worse, lose in a landslide as he will not be forgiven for his treachery.
He could become a hero, and supporters that don't understand he will be committing political hara kiri by staying in aren't helping him.
Brava, Joanie. Thank you for your thoughtful, well-written perspective - and for getting on the ground and backing up your beliefs and convictions.
From what I see, Trump is Schwarzenegger redux but with less like-ability and more controversy.
Trump's high negatives and bridge burning are going to make it difficult if not impossible for him to win the general.
Trump has shown no awareness so far that he will need to unite the party in order to win in the fall.
Cruz is the better prepared presidential candidate with clear solutions to our countries problems IMO.
It isn't over til it's over.
Do you think that Cruz can reach HALF the delegates needed to get to the nomination?
Or more appropriately, half of the delegates that Trump gets?
If he gets so lucky.. Where will he get an increase of at least 100% of delegates in Cleveland?
And do you think he can actually be viable in a general election if he colludes his way to this type of victory?
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