A Call to Reality and Cruz's Chances EVEN On a Second Ballot

Opinion ^ | 20 Apr 16 | Xzins

[xzins]

Most news services are reporting that Ted Cruz currently has 559 delegates after gaining zero in yesterday's New York primary. With 1237 the goal, it is clear that Ted Cruz can no longer win on the first ballot at the Republican Convention. He would need 678 delegates to reach 1237 and only 620 delegates remain. Obviously, that is impossible. That would be 109% of what remains, and that is a mathematical impossibility.

A good guess of how many additional delegates Cruz will gain between now and June 8 is 209. That would give him a total of 768 going into the convention. He would be 469 delegates short of 1237 on the first ballot.

469 delegates is an insurmountable number on the first ballot. And while it is an educated estimate, it is close enough that a fair observer will recognize that Cruz will be far below the needed number of delegates to make any kind of run whatsoever on the first ballot.

But, here's the kicker, and many are not considering it as they think about an open convention and Cruz perhaps emerging victorious on some subsequent ballot.

Cruz would STILL need those 469 delegates to close the gap to reach 1237 on the 2nd ballot. Even worse is that a huge percentage of his bound delegates can desert him on the second ballot. That means it is very likely that he begins needing 600 or more delegates to reach the magic 1237 on even the 2nd ballot.

It is true that in some smart card playing that Cruz has gained a few delegates here and a few delegates there in this state or that state. But, as you reflect on these numbers, it also comes to mind that it was generally a dozen or less, and it was only in a few instances. If it added up even to 200, it would still leave Ted Cruz far short of the kind of numbers he would need.

Former U.S. representative Pete Hoekstra, a John Kasich supporter and a member of the establishment, was reluctant to say it, but last night he acknowledged that John Kasich would be a natural running mate for Donald Trump. It was a bit of candor. It was logical given the state of the race.

It is the same for Ted Cruz. Even a 2nd ballot victory is a mathematically illogical objective for Ted Cruz. This is especially true given that the establishment does not want him or any other outsider winning the nomination. Cruz will fail on the 2nd ballot is what the numbers say. And with the establishment then exercising their power in the 3rd round, there is little likelihood that Cruz will emerge.

It is logical for Cruz to side with Trump NOW and lock in the vice presidency.

He is 44 years old, and he'll be just 52 at the oldest when he will be the heralded front runner for the presidency in 2020 or 2024.

Those who want his leadership and his principles in the driver's seat must see that that is not a dead dream. It is a delayed dream. It is entirely logical for Ted Cruz to join that very short list of famous men who for all history will have been vice presidents of the United States of America.

[xzins]

but by the election of delegates by GOP party activists who favor your candidate Cruz at the party conventions of the two states in question.

I think if you look back through the discussions on Free Republic you'll discover that no one supported Donald Trump any stronger than I did. I probably posted as many threads, argued as many arguments, dealt with as many insults as did just about anyone.

[xzins]

ping

[Idaho_Cowboy]

3. Trump would never align himself with the GOP-e or any of their boys.

---

Chris Christie?

[DoodleDawg]

How could they have been their party’s nominee if they lost?

Google is your friend. While you're at it Google how many sitting vice presidents have been elected president since 1836. That's why Cruz would not be interested to playing second fiddle in a Trump administration.

[xzins]

I just gave you a list of VPs in our era who have gone on to win their party’s nomination.

It’s more than haven’t. 6 out of 9. And I’m certain Cheney could have had it if he had wanted it.

Eisenhower/Nixon
Kennedy/Johnson
Nixon/Ford
Carter/Mondale
Reagan/Bush
Bush/Quayle
Clinton/Gore
Bush/Cheney
Obama/Biden

[DoodleDawg]

I just gave you a list of VPs in our era who have gone on to win their party’s nomination.

And I gave you the list of the sitting vice-presidents who went on to win the election. One. As in less than two. As in one in six. Or one in nine, depending on how you want to look at it. The vice presidency is a short road to obscurity, and Cruz knows it.

[csivils]

“Trump/Kasich”

And watch the base bail faster than you can blink. I won’t vote for a bake-the-cake rino.

[Dr. Sivana]

The delegates Cruz acquired in Colorado and Wyoming were obtained not by the results of an open primary election or caucus, but by the election of delegates by GOP party activists who favor your candidate Cruz at the party conventions of the two states in question.

The states of Colorado and Wyoming (and North Dakota) picked their process. Cruz was in single digits in summer and likely had no choice in the process chosen. In past years Colorado had a "beauty contest" election that had no correalation to the delegate selection and was non-binding. The RNC did away with the combination, so Colorado did away with the Beauty Contest. Trump's protest of the system came AFTER the loss. He should have made his protest ealier, if he wanted to make one.

Trump didn't even bother visiting Colorado. In fact, he spent more time in New York over the last week (and MUCH more than Cruz spent in Texas before the primary), a state he already had sewn up, rather than venturing into less friendly territory to face the delegates at the convention who would be voting. That's okay. He knew he had a chance to run up the score in New York, and that was likely to his best political advantage.

But the problem remains, SOMEONE is going to get those delegates. If Trump didn't want them, of COURSE Cruz would make his pitch.

[Therapsid]

Gun control...special economic zones....preserve Alaskan oil....destabilization of mexico...debase the U.S. military...some of the things they pay bribe money for....imo

They own all the deep water ports in mexico...the port in L.A.....1/4th of the land in mexico...the chineese womens call-up army..women of age untrained”...is 320 million.

yep Trump is the only one talking...about this.

[xzins]

Are you being difficult on purpose. You must be the nominee first. The general is on you no matter how you got there.

[xzins]

Ping to article

[Lakeshark]

Thank you, I’ve been trying to splain the math for over a week. Did you see Jeff Heads analysis.

To somehow believe he can pull 1237 delegates out of the hat when he will need over six hundred to do so is a delusional thought.

[Lakeshark]

Ping to a good article for you.

[xzins]

I agree. Given the dynamics of a not so covert disdain for Ted Cruz on the part of the GOP-E, if this were to make it to the 3rd ballot, the GOP-E would bring massive firepower from the media to the talking point that “the convention is dead-locked, we must offer new names.”

That would be inevitable. The script is probably already written.

I have read Jeff’s excellent analysis and we agree almost across the board.

[xzins]

Ping to article

[The Continental Op]

“If Trump has a large lead he will get the GOPe delegates’ votes on the first ballot- at a small price.
If it’s closer he’ll get their votes on a later ballot at a higher cost.

Ted would have to nearly tie Trump for the GOPe to give him the nomination- even if they wanted him.”
________________________

I agree with this. Never in the history of the GOP, going back to the early 1850s, has a candidate with over 90% of the needed delegates going into the convention been denied the nomination. Trump may get to 1237, but at a bare minimum he will go to Cleveland with far over 90% of the needed 1237, probably 95% or more.

[xzins]

Ping to article

[neverbluffer]

Legal only in the states rendering the decision. Not in a federal court...

[neverbluffer]

Or the 3rd and 4th choice in some states....