Posted on 04/20/2016 8:54:27 AM PDT by xzins
Most news services are reporting that Ted Cruz currently has 559 delegates after gaining zero in yesterday's New York primary. With 1237 the goal, it is clear that Ted Cruz can no longer win on the first ballot at the Republican Convention. He would need 678 delegates to reach 1237 and only 620 delegates remain. Obviously, that is impossible. That would be 109% of what remains, and that is a mathematical impossibility.
A good guess of how many additional delegates Cruz will gain between now and June 8 is 209. That would give him a total of 768 going into the convention. He would be 469 delegates short of 1237 on the first ballot.
469 delegates is an insurmountable number on the first ballot. And while it is an educated estimate, it is close enough that a fair observer will recognize that Cruz will be far below the needed number of delegates to make any kind of run whatsoever on the first ballot.
But, here's the kicker, and many are not considering it as they think about an open convention and Cruz perhaps emerging victorious on some subsequent ballot.
Cruz would STILL need those 469 delegates to close the gap to reach 1237 on the 2nd ballot. Even worse is that a huge percentage of his bound delegates can desert him on the second ballot. That means it is very likely that he begins needing 600 or more delegates to reach the magic 1237 on even the 2nd ballot.
It is true that in some smart card playing that Cruz has gained a few delegates here and a few delegates there in this state or that state. But, as you reflect on these numbers, it also comes to mind that it was generally a dozen or less, and it was only in a few instances. If it added up even to 200, it would still leave Ted Cruz far short of the kind of numbers he would need.
Former U.S. representative Pete Hoekstra, a John Kasich supporter and a member of the establishment, was reluctant to say it, but last night he acknowledged that John Kasich would be a natural running mate for Donald Trump. It was a bit of candor. It was logical given the state of the race.
It is the same for Ted Cruz. Even a 2nd ballot victory is a mathematically illogical objective for Ted Cruz. This is especially true given that the establishment does not want him or any other outsider winning the nomination. Cruz will fail on the 2nd ballot is what the numbers say. And with the establishment then exercising their power in the 3rd round, there is little likelihood that Cruz will emerge.
It is logical for Cruz to side with Trump NOW and lock in the vice presidency.
He is 44 years old, and he'll be just 52 at the oldest when he will be the heralded front runner for the presidency in 2020 or 2024.
Those who want his leadership and his principles in the driver's seat must see that that is not a dead dream. It is a delayed dream. It is entirely logical for Ted Cruz to join that very short list of famous men who for all history will have been vice presidents of the United States of America.
You are forgetting that the same rules apply to Trump. Trump does not retain all of his first ballot-bound delegates, either. Trump will see more desertion of "his" delegates to Cruz than vice versa.
I’m not forgetting anything. We’ve been told the number of delegates that Cruz has perhaps picked off for the 2nd round of voting. It isn’t nearly enough.
So, in your opinion if neither can close the deal on the 2nd ballot, they will lose even more delegats on the 3rd ballot, then who will settle it?
Trump goes into the convention with somewhat less than the 1237 needed. The further from that figure Trump is then the better it is for Cruz.
The first ballot is taken, nobody has a majority. At this point delegates are no longer bound to the candidate they voted for.
In the second round the Trump delegates that were recruited from Cruz supporters change their votes to Cruz. Cruz argues that Trump has peaked and momentum is shifting his way. That only his vote totals are going up.
On the third ballot he hopes to convert Rubio and, perhaps, Kasich voters to his side. In any case his vote total has to continue to increase for his argument to make any sense.
Fourth ballot or later Cruz is able to win.
Wildly optimistic? Perhaps. But at this point it's the only chance Cruz has.
Maybe. But it's not going to happen.
Cruz loses 40% of his delegates on the 2nd ballot.
The numbers say that in subsequent rounds his numbers get worse. Not better.
It’s Cruz’s best bet at this point in time.
Winning it all is a mathematical pipe dream and he’s smart enough to know that.
The outsiders have won if they will just unite.
If they do unite, everyone will say they had it planned that way from the beginning.
Yeah I can see the campaign slogan now: "Trump/Palin! For all you vagina voters out there." </sarcasm>
Based on what?
A number of commentators last night reporting that. They enter 2nd round with only 60% of their delegates.
Best bet for what? At worst he goes down with a Trump train wreck in November. At best he spends eight years in Trump's overwhelming shadow watching his political future fade away. It's lose/lose for him. Even if Trump and Cruz had been all kissy-kissy for the entire campaign I wouldn't see Cruz taking the veep spot.
Which means Trump only has 60% of his?
From another thread:
This is what happened: the RATS knew the country would vote for a mangy cat if it would promise to reverse all the damage they had done to Americans. So they had to put up someone to run under the R banner using populist allure: hence Bill’s little talk with Donald. The most painful injuries Obama gleefully maimed us with would be the running platform, promising to repeal and reverse them. Americans bit hard on the bait, propelling Trump further than he himself expected. Now an anonymous aid let slip today that Sanders is a VP possible pick for Hillary until he wears out next year and she replaces him with Castro. Then she declines a second term and Castro wins ‘20.This is what Cruz discovered and why he is running to win: the RATS have us checkmated. Sound far-fetched? Why? Donald has repeatedly told conservatives who he is, but half are so desperate to reverse the last 8 years they’ll believe ANYBODY who promises to stop the bleeding.
When Cruz was putting together a plan to control illegals from Mexico, that week Trump was castigating Romney for being ‘too harsh’ on illegals, hence his loss. Google it.
When Cruz was filibustering and fighting Obamacare all by himself, Trump was praising Scotland and Canada’s socialist healthcare. Google it.
The reason Cruz won’t unite with Trump - much to my chagrin - is he knows DT is a RAT Trojan Horse. He realizes it’s better to lose, then call Trump out on his failed promises for four years, then run again in ‘20.
I disagree. The majority of VPs in our era have gone on to be the nominee of their party or in a close contest for that slot.
Nixon, Ford, Bush, Mondale, Gore, Cheney could have if he’d wanted to and the same with Biden.
And how many have won?
Well, all but Cheney and Biden.
Look at that list again. Nixon, lost when he ran as sitting vice-president. Johnson, became president through death of his predecessor. Ford, became president through the resignation of his predecessor. Humphrey, lost. Mondale, lost. Gore, lost. Bush senior is the last sitting vice-president to win election in his own right. Before him you have to go back to Martin Van Buren.
Cruz wants to be president. He knows that serving as Trump's veep would kill any chance of that.
I don’t think it even takes a third ballot. All the stuff Trump didn’t want to do, all the ground work and forming relationships with the local people who become delegates pays off for Cruz.
Once they aren’t bound to Trump, Trump loses.
Well its true that Cruz is not a natural born citizen in the sense the founders intended. It won’t keep him off the ballot unless he wins the GOP nomination. Then the DNC will formally challenge his credentials by stating his documents are not in order.
Trump/Sessions?
How could they have been their party’s nominee if they lost?
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