So Trump has to win 60% of the remaining delegates (482 out of 808) to win the nomination. So far he has won 45% (755 out of 1,666). If Cruz can win 60% of the remaining delegates he will not have enough to win the nomination but he will have enough to take the lead from Trump.
In a multi-candidate race, the issue has always been not who can win the early primaries with a plurality out of a half dozen candidates, but who can pick up the votes from the candidates who drop out and win with a majority when there are only two candidates left standing. If Kasich would drop out we could find out.
Study, Bubba, study the math:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R
THE DELEGATE RACE MATH ~ 35% of the primary election race remains.
Trump won 7,825,264 votes -—> 755 delegates.
T.Cruz won 5,737,119 votes —-> 465 delegates.
~~Countdown to 1237 delegates~~
There are 895 hard delegates remaining of which some are free/soft delegates. Some delegates have already been won by other candidates. We have 808 new delegates ‘up for grabs’ in the upcoming races.
Donald Trump: 755 delegates won. He must win 482 more delegates to reach 1237. That is 59% of the 808 remaining hard delegates. He may lose 397 more delegates & still win 1237.
Ted Cruz: 465 delegates won. He must win 772 more delegates to reach 1237. That is 96% of the 808 remaining hard delegates. He may lose 36 more delegates & still win 1237.
With the help of the GOPe, Ted may now attempt to control, hijack, bribe, disqualify, recount, and other nefarious tactics to block Trump’s win. But we know he is the ‘face of god’ and has been anointed to do this.