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Trump's Biggest Obstacle (Poll Numbers Explanation)
Larry J Sabato's Crystal Ball ^ | 2015-12-17 | Alfred J Tuchfarber

Posted on 12/17/2015 7:49:50 PM PST by parksstp

Last week’s Crystal Ball repeated its refrain that Donald Trump is very unlikely to get the Republican presidential nomination. However, it issued the caveat that “[i]t would be easier to make our argument if we could explain precisely how and by whom the real estate tycoon will be dethroned.”

Who can and will defeat Trump? The answer is obvious, but also not obvious because the question seems to beg the name of another candidate. The “who” that will defeat Trump is not another candidate but is most likely to be the Republican voters who actually turn out in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and the other contests.

(Excerpt) Read more at centerforpolitics.org ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: 2016; alieninvasion; aliens; buildthewall; cruz; deportthemall; elections; endanchorbabies; endsanctuarycities; enforcethelaw; gop; illegalaliens; immigration; infiltrators; invaders; islam; jihad; koran; moratorium; muslim; musliminvasion; sendthemback; sharia; terror; trojanhorse; trump; trumpwasright
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Comment #61 Removed by Moderator

To: parksstp

One problem with the nitpicking analysis. It totally misses the mood of the people. Trump strikes a mighty chord with the voters who are pissed as hell with Obama, our goose-stepping government AND our spineless REPUBLICAN WIMPS!

Americans want someone who will seal the borders, enforce the law, end sanctuary cities, deport the illegal aliens, close the subversive mosques and send the Muslim barbarians packing! This is America, not Europe! They are not going to dominate us!

The chaotic multi-cultural experiment in godless Marxism has ended in total failure and we want to restore our Judeo-Christian Republic!

To hell with the Marxists, the fascists, the socialists, the Satanists and the Muslim invasion!

Cut the garbage, cut the crap, cut the government, man-up, gun-up, ammo up and get ready to ruuuumble!!

Cruz and Trump are the only ones with the balls to do this, but I think Trump has the edge as he has more worldly experience and is more of a fighter!

And screw Hillary! Trump;s going to steamroll right over that godless, treasonous bitch!


62 posted on 12/17/2015 9:36:36 PM PST by Jim Robinson (Resistance to tyrants is obedience to to God!)
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“And screw Hillary! Trump’s going to steamroll right over that godless, treasonous bitch!”

I’m with you Jim, and so is my wife...


63 posted on 12/17/2015 9:47:30 PM PST by babygene (Make America Great Again)
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To: Jim Robinson
"Americans want someone who will seal the borders, enforce the law, end sanctuary cities, deport the illegal aliens, close the subversive mosques and send the Muslim barbarians packing! "

We also want the Planned Parenthood butchers defunded and prosecuted.

64 posted on 12/17/2015 10:04:37 PM PST by matthew fuller (GWB Legacy: BHO, US Jihadi in Chief. BHO Legacy: ISIS.)
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To: matthew fuller

All part of cutting the government and restoring our Judeo-Christian Republic!


65 posted on 12/17/2015 10:07:42 PM PST by Jim Robinson (Resistance to tyrants is obedience to to God!)
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To: Jim Noble

“December 1979: Reagan 32%, Carter 62%”

I forgot how much drug use was going on in the seventies. Carter polling above 60 percent staggers the imagination.


66 posted on 12/17/2015 10:07:53 PM PST by Electric Graffiti (DEPORT OBOLA VOTERS)
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To: mosesdapoet

My wife is a naturalized citizen from Mexico...and she LOVES Trump.

You were listening to libtards who are going batshit crazy with the knowledge that he will beat Hillary.


67 posted on 12/17/2015 10:09:25 PM PST by Ancesthntr ("The right to buy weapons is the right to be free." A. E. van Vogt)
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To: Twink

“Trump can’t win going 3rd party. He wants to win.”

If it’s Trump vs Hillary and a Gope stooge. Trump wins easily.

I’ll stake your life on it.


68 posted on 12/17/2015 10:10:37 PM PST by Electric Graffiti (DEPORT OBOLA VOTERS)
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To: Twink

The thing that’s new about Trump is that when I’m challenged by leftists it’s easier to make them think as opposed to defending Palin or Cruz or Carson for example. I think his being from New York and need having been thought of as religious is a huge plus for the general election. Also the times favor a man or the times.


69 posted on 12/17/2015 10:21:49 PM PST by toddausauras ( Leftplosion.)
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To: toddausauras

typo: NOT having been thought of as religious.


70 posted on 12/17/2015 10:23:18 PM PST by toddausauras ( Leftplosion.)
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To: tflabo
No candidate in the primaries was getting crowds at their rallies like Trump is getting. Thats a big difference maker when comparing polls to yesteryear’s trends— it would seem.

For what it's worth, remember the last week of the 2012 presidential campaign -- Romney was drawing over 30,000 people to Red Rocks (CO), while Obama was drawing a few hundred in Iowa.

Obama, you'll recall, won both states.

71 posted on 12/17/2015 10:34:10 PM PST by okie01 (The Mainstream Medi</i>a: IGNORANCE ON PARADE)
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To: toddausauras

We usually don’t want a New Yorker, but he might be the ticket this time. I also thought today a good time to attack Hillary would be the next time one of these GOPe says they would vote Hillary over Trump. Tie the GOPe slime to her bigtime. They would vote for criminal Hillary? Trump could say.


72 posted on 12/17/2015 10:37:07 PM PST by taterjay
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To: goldstategop

“Larry Sabato is smoking crack.”

It’s not Larry here it’s this guy: Alfred J. Tuchfarber! Maybe someone who knows how to translate German can figure out the name. Maybe it’s “Tuchus Slapper,” I don’t know, but this guy is hitting his “reality bong” too hard.


73 posted on 12/17/2015 10:41:59 PM PST by vette6387
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To: Dave W

i’d sooner have a bowl movement than show up at a caucus. we have primary elections in the rest of the world. you know your mind you go and vote. i wouldn’t attend something where i had to listen to other people help me make up my mind about a candidate. sounds very socialist to me. i think there are others here that can demonstrate that iowa does mean squat in the primaries. i think santorum won iowa and that is all. i would say crowds mean enthusiasm. whoever they are. they go to an event and are vocal. to me they would appear to be people that would walk around the block and vote as well. and i could be wrong.


74 posted on 12/17/2015 11:32:01 PM PST by kvanbrunt2 (civil law: commanding what is right and prohibiting what is wrong Blackstone Commentaries I p44)
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To: Amntn

i tried to say that with more words. the crowds are enthusiastic. that means something.


75 posted on 12/17/2015 11:36:58 PM PST by kvanbrunt2 (civil law: commanding what is right and prohibiting what is wrong Blackstone Commentaries I p44)
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To: goldstategop

Crowds are not a prediction.

Romney had good-sized crowds in the days leading to the 2012 general election.

He lost.>>>
because he went on vacation


76 posted on 12/17/2015 11:38:56 PM PST by kvanbrunt2 (civil law: commanding what is right and prohibiting what is wrong Blackstone Commentaries I p44)
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To: Electric Graffiti

I’ll stake your life on it. >>>>
that worth a lol


77 posted on 12/17/2015 11:43:57 PM PST by kvanbrunt2 (civil law: commanding what is right and prohibiting what is wrong Blackstone Commentaries I p44)
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To: parksstp

Too much reality here for most people on FR these days... If the voters vote and Trump doesn’t magically appear on the throne what will be their response?


78 posted on 12/17/2015 11:45:33 PM PST by woofie
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To: onyx

LOL! Yeb will be breaking through any day. He’ll go from 3% to 4% and the enemedia will call it a “surge”.


79 posted on 12/18/2015 12:52:18 AM PST by smoothsailing
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To: smoothsailing

Well, don’t faint, promise? ... but I spotted a poll that showed Jeb at 9%!

His Mom and Poppy must be proud!


80 posted on 12/18/2015 1:01:59 AM PST by onyx
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