| Poll | Date |
Trump
|
Carson
|
Rubio
|
Cruz
|
Bush
|
Fiorina
|
Kasich
|
Paul
|
Huckabee
|
Christie
|
Santorum
|
Jindal
|
Graham
|
Pataki
|
Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 10/24 - 11/3 | 25.3 | 24.5 | 11.8 | 10.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Trump +0.8 |
From those numbers, I’m confident that Fiorina, Kasich, Paul, Huckabee, Christie, Santorum, Jindal, Graham, and Pataki are completely out of it. They had their chance on stage and on the campaign trail, and they failed.
This should come down to Trump, Carson, Rubio, Cruz, or Bush. I am pretty sure that Carson will not weather these attacks, even though the most effective ones are unreasonable. He doesn’t have the experience dealing with vitriol that the others have. Between Rubio and Bush, I expect the establishment to go for Rubio, completely surprised and bewildered that voters don’t like the next Bush in line.
I don’t have any predictions beyond there. I know what I’d like to see: Cruz/Trump because Trump will attract more voters and enthusiasm than anyone else, and I am 100% certain that Cruz is a reliable conservative. What I’d least like to see is Rubio/Anyone, since we know Rubio is a liar and an opportunist, not in any way a small government conservative. But I don’t have any predictions on how that final three-way race will play out. It depends on the evolution of the election more than anything else.
We are not at two yet. Yes, Pataki, Graham, Jindal, Santorum, Christie, Huckabee and Paul are gone. None have a prayer to be the nominee or the VP. They don’t have the resources. They don’t get the attention. They are simply not viable.
Kasich and Fiorina are only in it as VP candidates. And frankly Rubio, and Bush seem to be similarly situated. All of these four are likely to provide something as VPs. They would all be willing to stand in the shadows for several years. They would all bring some voters, Florida, Ohio, or women. And they all have a moderating stance.
That being said, nobody is really going to give a lot of money for someone’s VP challenge. Your not buying real power. So, any of these people who don’t show some hope of winning, will be getting out when the money stops to flow.
Cruz is different. I am not sure what Cruz bring. He is liked by the right. He is my candidate. But he is not likely to sit in the shadows. And his state is Texas, which everyone hopes they already can count on. Cruz is likely to alienate as many or, more than he brings to the voting booth. The left is scared of Cruz. Just like Palin, he has been demonized on the left. And he will be used to scare independents more than he will solidify people on the right.
If I were a betting man, I would say that Trump picks Fiorina, Rubio or Kasich. Don’t get all upset about anyone he picks. The VPs only job is to help get the nominee elected. Thats it. The VP says nothing about the top of the ticket at all.
Carson may chose someone with Washington cred. Obama picked Biden because he was someone with Washington credibility. Not for me, but for many in the center left. Carson will need the same help. He may chose Kasich or Rubio, possibly even Bush. He is not likely to chose Cruz either. Insiders will trust Kasich and Rubio or Bush. And Carson really doesn’t need Fiorina. He just needs a little Washington cred to make him viable, like Reagan had Bush, or Clinton had Gore.
The GOPe faction believes that their numbers are split now. And that when the other candidates leave, their candidate will be left to get all those votes. I am not sure that is true. But Rubio and Bush backers assume that you can add the Polls from Rubio, Bush, Christie, Kasich and half the votes of Jindal, Santorum, Huckabee and Paul. And you get a number larger than Trump or Carson. That is why they are holding out. Each thinks if they can stay long enough they will be the recipient of the others loss.