Posted on 08/09/2015 11:53:42 AM PDT by dontreadthis
I consider myself more an activist than a politico. That said, I’ve worked on campaigns and have a good understanding of what makes them tick. I’ve worked on city level races, county races, federal house races, a senate and a Gubernatorial race.
Some things are always unpredictable. But others are always predictable. Inevitably, there are candidates whose fans/followers believe that through sheer will their candidate can and will win. I watched this happen with Sharron Angle in Nevada, Christine O’Donnell in Delaware and Doug Hoffman in New York. There are many, many other examples of it over just the past six years.
You have an “insurgent” candidate who captures the hearts and minds of those loyal to principle over party, but the candidate ignores the basic fundamentals of campaigning and pays for it dearly. Sure, candidates like Trump, Palin and Angle have fans who will crawl over glass to help them. When it came to Angle I was one of those fans. I know Angle personally. I knew her when she was an Assemblywoman in Nevada’s 26th AD in Northwest Reno. I knocked doors with her to push her Prop 13 ballot initiative. I then volunteered for an eventually worked for her run against Dean Heller (then Secretary of State) for Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District. And I was invited to her campaign’s special hotel suite in Vegas as it was announced that she had won the Senate primary, shocking the political realm and handing Sue Lowden a stunning defeat.
Angle then went on to suffer a huge defeat by Harry Reid. One that left her supporters with their faces in their hands, confused as to what happened and how it happened.
No doubt Reid’s political machine used some questionable tactics. No doubt there was fraud involved. But ultimately Reid’s campaign flanked Angle at every turn. It didn’t matter how dedicated and determined Angle’s team was because Reid had the money, the network, the players and the infrastructure needed to outgun Angle in every way possible.
A Presidential campaign is certainly an entirely different animal in terms of scope and scale. Running a statewide campaign is a beast in and of itself. But running 50 statewide campaigns simultaneously is a whole different kind of monster.
Take Florida, for example. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker has reportedly decided to somewhat sit out the Florida primary. This move, in my view, is the right move and only logical move their team can make.
Why? Because Florida is very, VERY expensive. Florida is a massive state covering multiple expensive media markets. To give you an idea, the Romney campaign spent more than $11,000,000 on ads alone in 2012. That doesn’t include the pro-Romney Super PAC outfits. Nor does it include what Romney had to spend to have staff, offices and GOTV infrastructure in place in virtually every county in Florida.
Both Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio have run statewide campaigns in Florida. Both already have a statewide foundation to build on. They know the county chairmen/women, they know the organizers, they know who ran the show for them locally before, they know where to get the deals on GOTV infrastructure and they know who they need to be friendly with vs who they need to ignore.
Why would Scott Walker spend millions trying to compete with that when, in all honesty, he can’t win there? Walker is right to pass on Florida. It’s not that he’s going to ignore Florida voters, but he’s certainly going to keep his powder dry and save his big guns for states where he can actually win. Which, in all honesty, is about every state outside of Florida. I mean, outside of Florida, what other state is a guaranteed win for Jeb Bush?
Yeah, let me know when you figure that one out.
Getting back to Trump…
As Newt Gingrich showed us, a lead in the polls is irrelevant if you can’t build campaign infrastructure and get voters to the polls and/or caucuses. And, as Newt so painfully learned, if you’re not prepared for the carpet-bombing of attack ads that will come your way, you’re toast.
And if you think the negative ads that destroyed Gingrich were, bad, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. If I were a coms consultant for an anti-Trump Super PAC or campaign I would be licking my chops right now. Trump supported late abortion, used eminent domain for his business gain, supported universal healthcare and spread around money to the most liberal of liberal Democrat candidates.
Now on a personal level I agree with Sarah Palin’s perspective of Trump’s background and positions.
Shouts of, “But he donated to Democrats!” won’t sway Trump enthusiasts. The man built a skyscraper in New York City – of course, he had donated to Democrats. If he was building it in Salt Lake City, I’m sure he would have donated to Republicans. “But he changed his mind on positions!” Reagan had been an FDR Democrat. Should we hold that against him or be grateful he saw the light? Well, that’s a part of the story. Yes, Trump enthusiasts won’t be swayed. But don’t underestimate the power of the old school social club known as the GOP establishment’s ability to command and control the primary/caucus game.
I’ve seen this first hand. Up close and personal. Conservatives, libertarians and “plugged in” independents tend to be aware of what’s happening year round, regardless of whether or not it’s an election year. But the older ladies wearing sparkly GOP hats and the men in suits with the fancy elephant pins on their collars don’t fully plug in until a couple months out. And when they do, they bring enormous persuasion to the process. Because those people are the party’s county chairs. Those people each bring 50 more people with them to the table. Those are the people who show up out of nowhere and dictate who the more “electable” and “next in line” candidate is. And election after election those people defeat the insurgent candidate when the rest of us think we might have finally solved the puzzle.
Now I’ll admit Donald Trump brings a certain anomaly into the mix. Trump has some extraordinary abilities that Herman Cain and Ron Paul never had. If Trump were positioned like Herman Cain was last time around and team Obama hit him with dirty accusations about his marriage, Trump would simply tell the media to pound sand. And he would back that attitude up with millions of his own dollars to re-enforce said statements.
No doubt, Trump brings a new level of fight to an ugly battle. But don’t for a second think the party bosses and their armies aren’t ready for it. Their playbook is effective and entirely predictable.
The big business, pro-Bush Super PAC are going to unleash an unholy barrage of ads on Trump that will have people who casually pay attention scared to death of Trump as a political leader. And while they initiate this scorched earth political bombing of Trump, the Bush campaign will be running ads that establish him as a “safe” former Governor who cut some taxes and knows how to be a polished leader.
While the pro-Trump groups should be defining Bush for what he really is… a big government, big business hack who will do virtually nothing to slow the massive expansion of government. A political machine that favors government over liberty. A guy who will continue the rotting of American sovereignty in favor of global order. A politician who will do nothing to secure our borders and will help the continuation of the invasion because it pads the pockets of his big corporate benefactors. The pro-Trump entities will instead be stuck in a never-ending position of defense, scrambling to convince the casual crowd that Trump isn’t evil and is looking out for their best interests.
If you think this won’t be the case then you don’t understand how the machine works. Trump can certainly redefine how certain parts of the game are played, but he can’t redefine the entire game.
Trump’s campaign and supporters need to think beyond today and fast. Right now Trump operates almost entirely in the 24 hour media cycle. It’s a strategy that is proving wildly effective in the short term. But it’s a strategy that in many ways isn’t prepared for what’s to come.
My advice to Trump’s army of supporters is simple. You need to relax on preaching to the choir. Trump is doing a fantastic job on that front. What you need to be doing is finding out who your county GOP chair is, who the establishment activists are, and you need to cordially and politely be warming up to them. Then, you need to be in the meetings, the social events and gatherings helping them all understand why Trump could work for America.
Don’t be like the Ron Paul fans. The Paul crowd ridiculed and mocked the party bosses, which ended up hurting Paul in the long term. Instead of converting minds, the Paul fans just pushed minds further away, making the party establishment resent them in every way possible.
Don’t try and hide Trump’s past political sins. Instead, embrace them and help others understand that even Reagan himself had similar sins. Trump represents a great American story. One of many failures, but one that used those failures to learn success. One that had a man in the heart of big government liberal policies (New York) who emerged a financial mega-star through hard-headed maneuvering and powerful management skill.
America is done with shiny politicians. We’re over the political lies and promises. We’re ready for a bull in a China shop and Trump can be that bull.
Unfortunately, there is still one hell of a roadblock in place and it’s called the GOP establishment. Trump is right to engage in combat with the establishment. But at some point the Trump train will need to use the establishment’s tracks. Blowing up those tracks isn’t the answer on the long term front. Because in doing so the establishment will quickly build a bypass for the Bush train.
Mark my words…
TV is a "push" medium. You turn it on and they push the content out to you whether you are watching ou not.
If you are motivated enough to go to the internet to find Trump content, you are likely already predisposed to consider him.
If you are in the kitchen cooking the family dinner while the TV is on in the other room blaring anti-Trump advertising, you are likely to come away with a different opinion.
-PJ
This is why we have talkradio and the internet only now.
if Trump thinks he has to take out the GOP-e, he will...
and as for his ever needing them again, remember Reagan...
and.... in Trump’s case, he has an additional factor in his corner.........he has $10,000,000,00.69
ten billion dineros can build a lot of alternative train tracks, to use your illustration
Only to a point. Lest we forget Iphones are now medically embedded in most peoples hands and tabloid internet is pervasive.
SOMEHOW with -—one-— facebook page, Palin drove one spin cycle after another for 2 years. Imagine what several hundred million dollars could do targeted to that purpose.
I know someone who fits that profile
Bring it on !!!!!!
It’s about time the rest of the country found out what the DemocRATS are really like.
Brilliant and dead-on article. Only thing I would ad is that Trump has Ed Rollins as his campaign manager, and there is no one better at this kind of stuff.
Nice try .. but you’re way off the reservation.
THE PUBLIC IS MAD AS HELL AND WE’RE NOT GOING TO PUT UP WITH THIS MEALY-MOUTHED GARBAGE ANYMORE.
The GOP-e thinks they are the greatest thing since sliced bread .. and they’re going to find out that they are going to end up lumped in with the DemocRATS .. and their future is already in the toilet.
“Trump supported late abortion, used eminent domain for his business gain, supported universal healthcare and spread around money to the most liberal of liberal Democrat candidates”.
No one cares and it’s conservatives not caring because we ARE SICK AND TIRED of the GOP picking losers to run against the democrat. Sick and tired of it. Never believe for a minute all these liberal slanted polls that show Trump losing to any democrat. That’s what Rove and boys want you to think. The fact of the matter is I refuse to vote for another establishment RINO and I am not alone. But, if Trump bows out the only REAL CONSERVATIVE in the race, Ted Cruz, will pick up his supporters and millions of dollars to boot. I would be willing to bet that Trump would announce his support on national TV and tell all his supporters to wholeheartedly give their support to Ted Cruz. And when that happens Fox will turn on Cruz as fast as a duck on a june bug.
Correct: attack, attack, attack. He has that down, but Eric makes good points about lining up your state-level machines.
SNL mocked the Dukakis and Gore campaigns along with both Bush campaigns, and we got Republican Presidents. SNL no longer mocks Democrat campaigns.
The MSM kept reporting on Palin news long after the 2008 race, including her governor emails and Facebook conservative endorsements. The question is whether the MSM will continue to report Facebook and Twitter of popular Republicans, or was Palin another lesson to learn?
Facebook and Twitter will still be there the interested, but will the MSM continue to push it for the less technically savvy, if the content is to Trump's advantage?
-PJ
I agree with you about trying to influence the Party, at least around my neck of the woods. However, there are locales where the gop-e is not as strong and where committee people can be nudged off of Carson or Jindal or Fiorina or even Rubio with the better arguments. If they’re not going Bush/Kasich/Christy, then there is no other alternative than a conservative.
As soon as Jeb Bush can’t lie his way out of working for Bloomberg’s pro-abortion foundation his run is over. He’ll also have to explain why he believes in murdering babies in cases of rape, incest and “life of the mother”. If Trump gets out his supporters will go to Cruz, along with a lot of his money.
SNL is unwatched by most of America today and every Granny is on Facebook/Twitter/
Make some Trum LOLcats and he wins.
Yes, I think thats all it takes in the Idiocracy we live in to win a presidential election. Seriously. Because thats what the internet does. Turns memes into Reality. Every day.
Memes are the media in 2015 because the internet is the modern TV.
Don’t nudge. Ignore and go around. Why waste precious resources fighting two front wars?
The GOP is a dying entity. Establish an alternative and let the remanants of it come to you.
Thanks for taking time, my instinct was correct.
There's searching the internet, then there social media. Apples and bowling balls. It doesn't get more "push" that Twitter or Facebook.
From the article..." If I were a coms consultant for an anti-Trump Super PAC or campaign I would be licking my chops right now. Trump supported late abortion, used eminent domain for his business gain, supported universal healthcare and spread around money to the most liberal of liberal Democrat candidates.
Riiiiiiiight. The poor old anti-Clinton admen are so terribly outgunned in the negative ad material department. /capital S
Ooooooooh, be scawwwwwed, be vewwy vewwy scawwed. The party bosses will HURT US and they will HURT our billionaire candidate!!!!!
Excellent read. I’ve been on my county committee and this is almost exactly how it works. Conservatives need to be start infiltrating the local committees and slowly build up expertise and power within to wipe out the rinos and effect true change.
Agree as well. When this whole Trump thing started, I wasn’t sure if it would be like a little Gingrich push back at the Machine ruling us. But it was fun. Now that Trump has resonated and has not stopped fighting the machine, I believe this fight is
MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE.
Seriously. Either we knock these oligarch enemies and media storm troopers out now or we enjoy living under their chains.
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