Posted on 08/09/2015 11:53:42 AM PDT by dontreadthis
I consider myself more an activist than a politico. That said, I’ve worked on campaigns and have a good understanding of what makes them tick. I’ve worked on city level races, county races, federal house races, a senate and a Gubernatorial race.
Some things are always unpredictable. But others are always predictable. Inevitably, there are candidates whose fans/followers believe that through sheer will their candidate can and will win. I watched this happen with Sharron Angle in Nevada, Christine O’Donnell in Delaware and Doug Hoffman in New York. There are many, many other examples of it over just the past six years.
You have an “insurgent” candidate who captures the hearts and minds of those loyal to principle over party, but the candidate ignores the basic fundamentals of campaigning and pays for it dearly. Sure, candidates like Trump, Palin and Angle have fans who will crawl over glass to help them. When it came to Angle I was one of those fans. I know Angle personally. I knew her when she was an Assemblywoman in Nevada’s 26th AD in Northwest Reno. I knocked doors with her to push her Prop 13 ballot initiative. I then volunteered for an eventually worked for her run against Dean Heller (then Secretary of State) for Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District. And I was invited to her campaign’s special hotel suite in Vegas as it was announced that she had won the Senate primary, shocking the political realm and handing Sue Lowden a stunning defeat.
Angle then went on to suffer a huge defeat by Harry Reid. One that left her supporters with their faces in their hands, confused as to what happened and how it happened.
No doubt Reid’s political machine used some questionable tactics. No doubt there was fraud involved. But ultimately Reid’s campaign flanked Angle at every turn. It didn’t matter how dedicated and determined Angle’s team was because Reid had the money, the network, the players and the infrastructure needed to outgun Angle in every way possible.
A Presidential campaign is certainly an entirely different animal in terms of scope and scale. Running a statewide campaign is a beast in and of itself. But running 50 statewide campaigns simultaneously is a whole different kind of monster.
Take Florida, for example. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker has reportedly decided to somewhat sit out the Florida primary. This move, in my view, is the right move and only logical move their team can make.
Why? Because Florida is very, VERY expensive. Florida is a massive state covering multiple expensive media markets. To give you an idea, the Romney campaign spent more than $11,000,000 on ads alone in 2012. That doesn’t include the pro-Romney Super PAC outfits. Nor does it include what Romney had to spend to have staff, offices and GOTV infrastructure in place in virtually every county in Florida.
Both Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio have run statewide campaigns in Florida. Both already have a statewide foundation to build on. They know the county chairmen/women, they know the organizers, they know who ran the show for them locally before, they know where to get the deals on GOTV infrastructure and they know who they need to be friendly with vs who they need to ignore.
Why would Scott Walker spend millions trying to compete with that when, in all honesty, he can’t win there? Walker is right to pass on Florida. It’s not that he’s going to ignore Florida voters, but he’s certainly going to keep his powder dry and save his big guns for states where he can actually win. Which, in all honesty, is about every state outside of Florida. I mean, outside of Florida, what other state is a guaranteed win for Jeb Bush?
Yeah, let me know when you figure that one out.
Getting back to Trump…
As Newt Gingrich showed us, a lead in the polls is irrelevant if you can’t build campaign infrastructure and get voters to the polls and/or caucuses. And, as Newt so painfully learned, if you’re not prepared for the carpet-bombing of attack ads that will come your way, you’re toast.
And if you think the negative ads that destroyed Gingrich were, bad, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. If I were a coms consultant for an anti-Trump Super PAC or campaign I would be licking my chops right now. Trump supported late abortion, used eminent domain for his business gain, supported universal healthcare and spread around money to the most liberal of liberal Democrat candidates.
Now on a personal level I agree with Sarah Palin’s perspective of Trump’s background and positions.
Shouts of, “But he donated to Democrats!” won’t sway Trump enthusiasts. The man built a skyscraper in New York City – of course, he had donated to Democrats. If he was building it in Salt Lake City, I’m sure he would have donated to Republicans. “But he changed his mind on positions!” Reagan had been an FDR Democrat. Should we hold that against him or be grateful he saw the light? Well, that’s a part of the story. Yes, Trump enthusiasts won’t be swayed. But don’t underestimate the power of the old school social club known as the GOP establishment’s ability to command and control the primary/caucus game.
I’ve seen this first hand. Up close and personal. Conservatives, libertarians and “plugged in” independents tend to be aware of what’s happening year round, regardless of whether or not it’s an election year. But the older ladies wearing sparkly GOP hats and the men in suits with the fancy elephant pins on their collars don’t fully plug in until a couple months out. And when they do, they bring enormous persuasion to the process. Because those people are the party’s county chairs. Those people each bring 50 more people with them to the table. Those are the people who show up out of nowhere and dictate who the more “electable” and “next in line” candidate is. And election after election those people defeat the insurgent candidate when the rest of us think we might have finally solved the puzzle.
Now I’ll admit Donald Trump brings a certain anomaly into the mix. Trump has some extraordinary abilities that Herman Cain and Ron Paul never had. If Trump were positioned like Herman Cain was last time around and team Obama hit him with dirty accusations about his marriage, Trump would simply tell the media to pound sand. And he would back that attitude up with millions of his own dollars to re-enforce said statements.
No doubt, Trump brings a new level of fight to an ugly battle. But don’t for a second think the party bosses and their armies aren’t ready for it. Their playbook is effective and entirely predictable.
The big business, pro-Bush Super PAC are going to unleash an unholy barrage of ads on Trump that will have people who casually pay attention scared to death of Trump as a political leader. And while they initiate this scorched earth political bombing of Trump, the Bush campaign will be running ads that establish him as a “safe” former Governor who cut some taxes and knows how to be a polished leader.
While the pro-Trump groups should be defining Bush for what he really is… a big government, big business hack who will do virtually nothing to slow the massive expansion of government. A political machine that favors government over liberty. A guy who will continue the rotting of American sovereignty in favor of global order. A politician who will do nothing to secure our borders and will help the continuation of the invasion because it pads the pockets of his big corporate benefactors. The pro-Trump entities will instead be stuck in a never-ending position of defense, scrambling to convince the casual crowd that Trump isn’t evil and is looking out for their best interests.
If you think this won’t be the case then you don’t understand how the machine works. Trump can certainly redefine how certain parts of the game are played, but he can’t redefine the entire game.
Trump’s campaign and supporters need to think beyond today and fast. Right now Trump operates almost entirely in the 24 hour media cycle. It’s a strategy that is proving wildly effective in the short term. But it’s a strategy that in many ways isn’t prepared for what’s to come.
My advice to Trump’s army of supporters is simple. You need to relax on preaching to the choir. Trump is doing a fantastic job on that front. What you need to be doing is finding out who your county GOP chair is, who the establishment activists are, and you need to cordially and politely be warming up to them. Then, you need to be in the meetings, the social events and gatherings helping them all understand why Trump could work for America.
Don’t be like the Ron Paul fans. The Paul crowd ridiculed and mocked the party bosses, which ended up hurting Paul in the long term. Instead of converting minds, the Paul fans just pushed minds further away, making the party establishment resent them in every way possible.
Don’t try and hide Trump’s past political sins. Instead, embrace them and help others understand that even Reagan himself had similar sins. Trump represents a great American story. One of many failures, but one that used those failures to learn success. One that had a man in the heart of big government liberal policies (New York) who emerged a financial mega-star through hard-headed maneuvering and powerful management skill.
America is done with shiny politicians. We’re over the political lies and promises. We’re ready for a bull in a China shop and Trump can be that bull.
Unfortunately, there is still one hell of a roadblock in place and it’s called the GOP establishment. Trump is right to engage in combat with the establishment. But at some point the Trump train will need to use the establishment’s tracks. Blowing up those tracks isn’t the answer on the long term front. Because in doing so the establishment will quickly build a bypass for the Bush train.
Mark my words…
Canada Free Press.
There, fixed it.
It’s very obvious you did not read the entire essay. You missed the point completely. And because of that, it will be people like you that will cause Trump to concede.
Actually, it was a very well written essay and he gave you advice as to how Trump can win. This was a pro Trump essay.
Masterpiece of a cartoon.
LOL! Do you know it’s 2015? Did you wake up and think it was 2008? I hate to tell you this, but no one cares.
Worth reposting as an example of what to do the polar opposite of. For anyone, Trump or Cruz Fan alike
““What you need to be doing is finding out who your county GOP chair is, who the establishment activists are, and you need to cordially and politely be warming up to them. Then, you need to be in the meetings, the social events and gatherings helping them all understand why Trump could work for America.””
It is little wonder this writer/political activist worked for a losing campaign because he suggests nothing less than asking your torturer for more voltage and a baseball bat to the knee.
A guy like trump does not have to play by GOP rules. He has more F-You money than the entirety of the GOP combined. The GOP at the local level is as corrupt as the GOP at the national level. How does any thinking individual suppose there can BE a corrupt national GOP without a corrupt structure underneath supporting it?
What is Eric going to do? Go hat in hand to tell a bunch of people whose job it is to keep people not “of the body” (see Landru/Star Trek) out, that they need to simply look at the situation and put themselves out of job for the good of the opposition?
Sometimes I think people are really that stupid. Other times I think they are paid plants. Either way you do not ‘rationalize’ or ‘work with’ your enemy like Barry and the Mitch/Jonbon idiocy. You subvert and destroy it. Utterly.
Trump has 10 Billion reasons he can do that if he chooses to. Whether that ends in a good thing for America is an entirely different argument.
Cause Trump to concede? I don’t know where you get that from.
I did read it and I stand by what I wrote. I simply do not agree with the author’s conclusion, nor do I see the need for caution.
We aim to win more than an election, if you get my meaning. The Republicans and are dinosaurs. Get used to a new way of doing things.
The big hole in his logic.
I don't for a minute believe Trump is going to have to brown nose local party bosses to accomplish this. And ultimately, that's really all a candidate needs.
Their only remaining power will be to deny him the soapbox to campaign from. Then deny him coverage of his events. Just cover the campaign as if Trump were not in it.
-PJ
It is rigged.
-PJ
Romney actually did that to Newt Gingrich down here in Florida. He bought out the airwaves and Newt’s people found it difficult to get airtime. Newt did not have a lot of money for lawyers, but Trump does. I don’t believe TV stations like spending their money on lawsuits so I don’t think they will give him any trouble.
But I do agree with you that a blackout on all things Trump will be exactly what the establishment will be left with in order to attempt to handle him.
What happens when Trump gets the Chris McDaniel treatment from the Republican establishment? We hated what McConnell and company did to support GOPe Cochran in Mississippi; will we accept it when it is directed at Trump?Mississippi was a microcosm of the new GOP. McDaniel was as much of a threat to the establishment then as Trump is now. In 2012, many saw taking back the Senate as paramount, but some of us thought that McConnell saw having a Senate of controllable cronies as more important. The GOP changed after the defeat of Eric Cantor in the House. Democrat scorched earth tactics were now on the table for good (actually, we saw a preview of it in 2012 against Newt Gingrich in the Florida primary after Gingrich did so well in South Carolina). Republicans were willing to do anything to their own, but it still remains to be seen if they are willing to turn that fire towards Democrats. So far, I've seen no evidence of their willingness to do so.
I believe that a desperate GOPe is willing to do anything to stop Trump, and the debate antics doesn't come close to what they are now capable of accepting to preserve their power.
So what will we do when the ugliness of Mississippi returns?
Trump is self-funded and can drain the resources of the GOP unless the GOPe goes nuclear and drops the bomb on Trump in one unimaginable strike that demoralizes Trump and his supporters, and avoids future losses for themselves in a long protracted state-hopping fight (notice the WWII Pacific theater analogy?).
So what do we do when the GOP does the unthinkable and goes there?
-PJ
There’s this new thing out called an internet or something like that. Maybe somehow people could use it to subvert the blacklist on TV/print.
Radical idea I know but since America lives on the net and print/TV is in record decline, it just might work...
IMHO: Trump has been planning to be 3rd party all along.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.