Christopher Hooks (right)
So every neck-beard and coed in this country is going to write an article slamming Cruz? That'll be fun.
Posted on 03/23/2015 1:35:45 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Now he belongs to the ages. Today Ted Cruz, one of the foremost representatives of the state’s persecuted Texan-Canadian community and the junior Senator from the North Texas tea parties, ascended from this state’s low mortal plane and affixed himself to the celestial realm of presidential politics, where he’s always thought he truly belonged. The announcement wasn’t a surprise, but when it happened (earlier than his competitors) and where it happened (at the evangelical Liberty University) was.
What to make of it? Is this the beginning of a long, slow grassroots groundswell of the kind that Cruz harnessed to trample David Dewhurst in 2012? Could 2015 be the year of national #Cruzmentum?
No and no.
Some conservatives—and the Democratic Party fundraising apparatus—would have you believe otherwise, but a bet against Cruz winning the Republican nomination for president would be among the safest possible uses of your money. Cruz isn’t in the same category as the Ben Carsons and Carly Fiorinas of the world—people who are running only to up their future speaking fees and maybe land a Fox News gig—but he has a roughly similar chance of winning the GOP nomination, much less the presidency.
There are political reasons and policy reasons this is the case, as well as personal ones—are Americans really going to cheer for an Ivy League snob with an affinity for paisley bathrobes and Jesse Helms who hung a giant oil painting of himself arguing in front of the Supreme Court in his office?
But there’s a simpler reason to doubt Cruz: In almost every presidential election since FDR’s last re-election, Republicans have nominated the more moderate, business-minded candidate over an ideologue, with 1964 being the only real exception. (There’s 1980, too, but that’s something of a special case.) The conservatives who love Cruz are right: The donor class—the people who care a lot about estate taxes and not all that much about the gays—run the national party, more or less. Cruz is a Barry Goldwater in an era that’s not looking for one.
In his address this morning at Liberty, he posited the existence of what we might start calling the “Silent Plurality”—evangelical and other voters who would come out to support the party if it had real leadership. He has, certainly, an almost fanatic appeal to a part of the Republican base, and especially so in Texas.
But winning a Republican primary in this state provides a very particular kind of political experience, one that is not easily translatable elsewhere. For years, he’s been deploying the same one-liners at rallies—his speeches to friendly crowds, who’ve surely heard his zingers many times before, sometimes have the feel of a stand-up comedian’s routine.
But when he puts himself in front of crowds that won’t give him the easy laughs, he often looks lost. He’s more comfortable provoking people than finding commonalities with them. And despite his lauded oratorical skills, he’s never really proved adept at using the politician’s most basic tool: Tailoring his speech to different audiences as the need arises. His base loves him for that, of course.
Cruz’s most significant contribution to the race—apart from the inherent entertainment value—might be his ability to scramble the GOP primary here in Texas, thanks in part to a set of weird new rules adopted for the contest.
Next year, Texas’ primary will be on March 1, much earlier on the calendar than previous years. After the early states, like Iowa and New Hampshire, it will have been the biggest state to vote, and it’ll be rich with delegates. Because the GOP field could easily still be crowded at that early date, the state might play an important role in determining the winner.
Why does that matter for Cruz? The event next year is going to be a bit more complicated than it used to be. The state’s many delegates will be allocated three ways: There will be a pool of delegates that represent the statewide vote, a pool of delegates that represent the vote of each congressional district, and a pool of delegates that will be determined at a later date.
If one candidate takes a majority of the vote in Texas next year, or a majority of the vote in one of the state’s congressional districts, they’ll take all of those delegates. But if no one takes a clear majority statewide or in the congressional districts, the candidates who win more than 20 percent of the vote split those delegates proportionally. Then, a quarter of the pot will be awarded to one candidate at the state Republican convention later in the summer.
This is Cruz country, and if he’s still in the race by the Texas primary—you can bet he’ll stay in till at least then—he’s likely to take a big share of the vote, if not win it outright. If he does, it’ll have the effect of hurting other candidates who might do well here—candidates with Texas connections such as Rick Perry, Jeb Bush and Rand Paul.
With Cruz in the race, some might struggle to pass the 20 percent barrier. And if Cruz can lay a credible claim to having “won” the messy Texas primary, you can bet his supporters will be pushing hard to award those floating delegates to Cruz at a convention if there’s still a contest to be had.
Still, don’t worry too much about President Cruz. But don’t get too eager if you think a failed presidential campaign will knock him out of the spotlight. He’s up for reelection in 2018. Democrats used to fantasize about running a credible challenger against him—particularly, they talked about convincing one of the Castro brothers—but after the Democrats’ 2014 electoral disaster, that possibility seems remote. So despite the hundreds of thousands of words that will be written today, in most of earth’s languages, about Mr. Cruz’s chances, expect everything to stay the same, more or less.
******
Christopher Hooks joined the Observer in 2014. Previously, he was a freelance journalist in Austin, where he grew up. His work has appeared in Politico Magazine, Slate, and Texas Monthly, among others. He graduated from The New School in 2012 with a bachelor's degree in history.
Christopher Hooks (right)
So every neck-beard and coed in this country is going to write an article slamming Cruz? That'll be fun.
Looks like a more molesty version of Gacy
I have yet to ever use this weak “Meh” meme.
Just not happening.
I love the way the Progosphere has synchronized it’s periods and is now in a mega-PMS situation over Cruz and his choice of Liberty U to make his announcement.
I watched convo today (I’m an online student so I watch it at least once a week) and was encouraged by all those young adults who were cheering for liberty, family, God (the real one and not allah), and even for a Pro-Choice stance.
That has to terrify the Left.
Good. I hope they choke on their own bile.
Wasn’t Obama Ivy League?
I certainly hope so.
His background is just that of any Marxist-lite wannabe journalist. Smear your opponents. Make yourself sound smart. Spread the BS all over the place.
The New School? Always been a training school for the old Communist Party USA and associated Marxist-socialists.
The only reason to read this guy’s crap is that we need to know what the enemy is thinking, saying, and doing.
“Cruz is a Barry Goldwater in an era that’s not looking for one.”
Oh, right... we are actually looking for some Dole/McCain/Romney LOSER.
Effin Idiot.
Oh-oh, somebody doesn’t like the Teddy-Bear LOL
It’s worth electing Cruz just to see the conniption fit that the left will go into :)
2016 - Put the country on Cruz control!
Christopher Hooks joined the Observer in 2014. Previously, he was a freelance journalist in Austin, where he grew up. His work has appeared in Politico Magazine, Slate, and Texas Monthly, among others. He graduated from The New School in 2012 with a bachelor's degree in history
It would be best, for us and him, that we ignore what he writes, so that his miserable attempt as an opinion piece author collapses, quickly and painlessly, so that he can begin his real career in the car wash industry as soon as possible.
So some barista look alike Austin millennial lib hipster doesn’t think Cruz will be formidable. The damned idiot has never been right in his life...this will be no different.
I will no longer acquiesce to Rinos’ reason for hating Cruz. I had a moment this afternoon where I decided that I will answer with this: As far left as Obama has brought our country, I will vote for Cruz to counteract. PERIOD.
All in, Cruz!
The tiny hands give him away.
I know. I laughed when he referred to Ted’s Ivy League “snobbery”. The Democratic Party is full of Ivy Leaguers. It seems to be a prerequisite to be a mover and shaker in that party, and this fool ignores that fact.
It’s fun to see all of the lefties and RINOs (but I repeat myself) whistling past the graveyard.
This article? Meh.
So every neck-beard and coed in this country is going to write an article slamming Cruz?
Yes, and end up actually helping Cruz by going overboard with all the attacks.
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