Posted on 09/30/2014 6:02:53 PM PDT by Kartographer
Despite the best efforts of the World Health Organization and Doctors Without Borders, Ebola is expected to rage on in West Africa for another 12-18 months, with 20,000 cases predicted. Without coordination of relief efforts, the ability to contain the disease is limited and has been labeled a “failure” to date. Countries are sending supplies and equipment in piecemeal fashion. The U.S., for example, is setting up a 25 bed hospital for its part. Unfortunately, it’s far too little to make a dent in the epidemic.
It’s difficult for a person in a developed country to believe that medical systems, economies, even governments, might fail as a result of a virus. The average U.S. citizen suffers from what we call “Normalcy Bias”. This is the tendency to be believe that, since things have been just fine, everything will always remain so. This is foolhardy thinking at best, and dangerous thinking at worst. One wonders what the effect of normalcy bias was in 1918 when the Spanish Flu hit America.
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Here’s the cdc Press conference today on this patient you might like to take a look at:
Other than family members I wonder how many others has he had interaction with? Mailman? Pizza Delivery guy, may he went to the pharmacy to get something for his ‘flu’??
Looks like they’ll follow each family members for at least 21 days...if they’re going to get it the symptoms will show in that time frame.
My concern is from the day he was admitted til they isolated him....so those who cared for him will have to be watched as well I assume.
No doubt some who have family members in the hospital will have questions about this.
He went to one medical facility and was then sent home. I figure a minimum of 6 health workers had close enough contact to become infected. I figure at least 6 more at this facility before he was off limits. Maybe 6 more “family members”. So a very conservative number of recent close, unprotected, contacts would be 18. Anyone’s guess as to how many of those actually wind up with Ebola. My guess would be 6.
If he was out and about, all bets are off.
Whoever he was in contact with, where he went will be investigated..if not already. I understand he was visiting family in Dallas and why the trip here so perhaps he hung out at their home only before he got sick.
Any who cared for him would have to have direct contact with body fluids....since there’s a cough with this, and we don’t know if it had gone that far or not...there’s just no telling how many in the staff could have been exposed with any certainty until they are tracked to see.....21 days from the time he was with them.
You bring up an interesting point, how does HIPPA really play into this when those families are not getting answers. What will happen when "ambulance chasers" get involved over HIPPA and "rights" to know. Thinking a bit different here, this country is driven politically at this point which ultimately means public theater plays out ( a very slow process ); what does that mean if this particular instance of ebola in this country does not "burn out" without spread?
I guess all bets are off. Just found this:
“The Dallas Fire-Rescue crew that transported the Ebola patient on Sunday is now under quarantine. The city has activated its Emergency Operations Center on “Level 2: High Readiness” in response to Tuesday’s developments”
source:
Don’t live anywhere you can’t reasonably “shelter in place” at. Once SHTF, getting out may prove nigh unto impossible. Remember Hurricane Katrina: 5 days’ notice of a cat 5 hurricane on a direct course, and yet freeways became impassible. Remember cars have range limits: if everyone’s driving away, there won’t be any gas anywhere; when you run out, you’d better be where you want to be - and be assured a whole lotta other people will be there too. If you’re going to bug out, you have to do it before anyone else does - which leaves you, most likely, looking stupid when nothing happens.
Frankly, with Ebola, I’m not sure where my tipping point is. I work a “telecommutable” job: go to the office daily, but there’s no reason why I can’t switch to home should things start turning ugly in Atlanta. Methinks there will be plenty of advance notice that it arrived here; key is ensuring I’ve enough supplies for months of hunkering-in. If you/yours don’t actually contract it, normalcy bias will play a huge role: people will feel fine and go about their business, even as reports of nearby outbreaks proliferate. If you don’t have it, and nobody close to you has it, you’ll figure you’re fine.
Ebola isn’t like flu, where everyone gets it well before symptoms arise and most people survive unscathed (fatalities may be high but tend to be outliers of old/ill/infirm/infants). It’s more like a fire: burning slowly, taking out most of what it touches, but if you can stay just out of reach you’re OK.
First case in state and I go into prepping overdrive.
First case in city and I discuss telecommuting options with business.
First case in block ... ya know, I just don’t come in contact with anyone near me anyway.
The problem I guess isn’t so much worried about actually contracting it, the concern is when a few major high-density populations start burning out. Sort of a slow-motion nuclear weapon: high fatality rate, limited range of actual death/damage, but extensive ripple effects from fear & disruption. Odds of contracting Ebola are low so long as you minimize human skin-to-skin contact, but I’ve seen how rumors can suck supply lines dry within hours (at least 3 runs on gas within the last decade here around Atlanta) and shut down normal socioeconomic activity for days, leading dangerously close to classic “9 meals away from revolution”.
Heh. Facebook just showed me an ad for “Atlanta to Dallas, just $89!” No thanks.
Some patents are acquired just to ensure everyone can have access (”as patent owner, I hereby grant everyone full use rights”).
Thanks for your replys. Unfortunately I work in Hospitals servicing equipment. I don’t get “inside information” on what they are working on, exposed to. Yet, at the same time, I have to work in ERs, ICUs, etc. I am sure if they had a known Ebola patient present, I would not be allowed in the area. My problem is that they very likely not know someone had Ebola and there I am, walking through spilled “liquids”.
Ever look at a hospital floor while you are walking through. Think about the minimum wage person mopping up the “spills”, then pushing the mop cart down the hall to the next one.
Afraid I will be pulling the plug a little earlier than most.
Yup. Hospitals are actually filthy. I would bet my last dollar my dining room table is cleaner than an OR.
That being said, I worry about full disclosure to staff of a hospital if things do spiral (not saying they WILL, but what if?). I realize it is just one case of this nasty virii on our soil, but I do pray arrogance does not precede the CDC nor staff of said hospital. They potentially have a lot of work ahead of them at this point given this patients travelling.
Hey, best of luck to you and keep on keeping on (carefully) so your don’y have to pull that plug.
Later
When it hits St. Louis which is about 75 miles away, or anywhere else in the state. That will be a deciding point, but maybe just reduced exposure. Maybe we will stay home for the most part, but still go out a couple of times per month for restocking.
Fresh milk can be obtained by going through a drive through convenience store, wear gloves, mask, on safety glasses. Spray the container with bleach when you get it home several times before bringing it into the house.
My main problem is my daughter works in St. Louis and I babysit with my grand daughter. She’ll have to decide what she will do. If she’s going to work, then maybe I’ll just have her leave her daughter at my house.
If the hospitals in St. Louis are over run, then there will be no trips of anykind anywhere.
If it was just me and my husband. I’d say for sure just stay home, but it’s not, so it’s hard to say for sure.
There is a simple flu drug currently undergoing phase 3 human trials that has been shown to be effective against Ebola in animal tests, but is not FDA approved for human use.
http://www.medivector.com/favipiravir/favipiravir1
So far I have been unable to find any source to purchase this drug. Presumably it can be synthesized from the commonly-available prescription drug Pyrazinamide, but the description of the synthesis and purification process that I was able to find seemed a bit over-the-top for an amateur chemist.
The effective adult dose for Ebola treatment should be 1600mg twice on the first day, followed by 600mg twice on days 2 - 7.
> The effective adult dose for Ebola treatment should be 1600mg twice on the first day, followed by 600mg twice on days 2 - 7
In case that was unclear, the initial loading is 3200mg on the first day, and then 1200mg per day for six more days. Animal trials suggest that your immune system should be able to clear the virus from your system in that time.
Treatment should begin at the first indication of exposure. If you wait for the symptoms to appear, or worse, for a confirmed Ebola blood test, the drug should still help your chances for survival, but the damage would be extensive and the recovery would be difficult.
Well, assuming that he couldn’t really spread it until symptoms showed up (an unlikely scenario, I know), he basically had 6 days from when symptoms began to diagnosis to spread the virus around to medical personnel, family and who knows who else.
We could be scrooooowed.
I’m not talking about fighting Ebola with supplements. What I am doing is building my family’s immune system so that should disaster strike, that’s one weapon in our arsenal. I’m not a hand sanitizer mom either. My kids get exposed to germs. I insist they get dirty; a day well lived results in dirt, sand, and pebbles at the bottom of the bathtub at night. Our pediatrician rarely sees the kids, and when he does he loves that I ask if they have to have antibiotics or can they fight off what is ailing them. We grow, cook, and eat real food, not processed frozen crap made of unpronounceable ingredients. Every little bit helps in the long run. I have to give my family a fighting chance before exposure is even an issue. It seems like now it is.
Sorry if my reply was a little offensive. Sounds like you know what you are doing.
Sept. 19 — Departs from Liberia
Sept. 20 — Arrives in the United States
Sept. 24 — Begins having symptoms
Sept. 26 — Seeks medical care
Sept. 28— Hospitalized and put in isolation
Sept. 30— Tests positive for Ebola
I heard that his initial attempt to seek medical care saw him turned away at the hospital (and I've seen that happen to other people with kidney failure or other problems only to be admitted 2 days later in worse condition).
Also I heard that he waited 24 hours in the emergency waiting area before finally being admitted the second time. How many people there were in sustained contact with him? Where have they since gone?
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