Posted on 09/01/2014 3:06:24 PM PDT by Kartographer
Vespignani has analyzed the likelihood that Ebola will spread to other countries. Using data on millions of air travelers and commuters, as well as mobility patterns based on data from censuses and mobile devices, he has built a model of the world, into which he can introduce Ebola and then run hundreds of thousands of simulations. In general, the chance of further spread beyond West Africa is small, Vespignani says, but the risk grows with the scale of the epidemic.
Ghana, the United Kingdom, and the United States are among the countries most likely to have an introduced case, according to the model.
(Excerpt) Read more at shtfplan.com ...
The hysterical projections are a very good comparison.
C’mon. This reads like some supermarket tabloid.
I don’t read them so I will bow to your superior knowledge of supermarket tabloids.
Hysteria?
Who’s demonstrating hysteria?
Since when did taking reasonable precautions qualify as *hysteria*?
Fact of the matter is, we don’t know what’s going to happen but I would not be surprised in the least if Ebola hits the US, either unintentionally or intentionally.
Our borders make a pretty good sieve.
We’re already dealing with drug resistant TB among other things.
Only a fool would bury their heads in the sand and claim it’s not going to happen here.
Only the headlines. Things like, “Ebola will kill 10,000 people by Christmas!”
Since I'm retired, I can just stay home and hide, but my grand-kids still go to school, and their parents work, not sure how that would play out.
They should be stopping all travel in and out of the areas where the infections are or are suspected. I wasn't nearly as concerned about H1N1, and the Media hyped that to the moon and back.
Now this is really a fearful virus, and they are all don't worry be happy. That's the sort of attitude that makes me worry even more.
By the way I gave you a fair and accurate comparison between H1N1 and Ebola. I answered in facts not hysteria. If anything you are acting like a supermarket tabloid all supposition and no facts.
When I flew to USSR in 1988 on a highly classified technical mission, the USSR demanded that we be tested for HIV. The US said NO! We got in.
What do the numbers 151,700 and 575,400 represent?
No one said it can’t happen here. I just don’t think it will. And the title is hysterical.
Epidemiology is not an amateur sport. The *only* way that many Americans could even be exposed to Ebola would be in a concerted, militarized virus attack with a delivery system.
Naturally, it cannot happen. Not may not, but cannot.
June 25, 2012 — A study published today in The Lancet Infectious Diseases Online First provides the first global estimates of how many people died as a result of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. The study, co-authored by 9 members of the CDC Influenza Division, used an improved modeling approach which resulted in an estimated range of deaths from between 151,700 and 575,400 people who perished worldwide from 2009 H1N1 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated. A disproportionate number of deaths occurred in Southeast Asia and Africa, where access to prevention and treatment resources are more likely to be limited. Study authors hope that this work can be used not only to improve how influenza deaths are estimated, but also to improve the public health response during future pandemics in parts of the world that suffer more influenza-related deaths.
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/spotlights/pandemic-global-estimates.htm
Thanks.
Well, either you were too young to remember the hysteria or just have a poor memory about it. My God - I remember the meltdown when Linda Evans was kissed by Rock Hudson. I can assure you it was not just gays who were worried. So, I’ve been to this rodeo before and will wait and see before getting my hair mussed, as George C. Scott said in “Dr. Strangelove.”
If you don’t follow the rules of quarantine...
Yes, it has that ‘special twist’ don’tchaknow.
Oh yeah, but that was supermarket tabloids and as I said I don’t read them. I would suggest since the both you so much that it might be best if you didn’t as well.
Well, that’s a different kettle of fish and an interesting theory! I do think AIDs and the AIDs activists - hyped by the loathsome play “Angels in America” - wrecked havoc on our culture. A miniscule part of the population had that disease and yet zillions of dirty lucre was pored into funding a cure. Even then, it pissed me off!
Aids is one hundred percent preventable sit down and keep your mouth shut
100,000 in Africa, perhaps. But non-issue in the West.
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