Posted on 09/01/2014 3:06:24 PM PDT by Kartographer
Vespignani has analyzed the likelihood that Ebola will spread to other countries. Using data on millions of air travelers and commuters, as well as mobility patterns based on data from censuses and mobile devices, he has built a model of the world, into which he can introduce Ebola and then run hundreds of thousands of simulations. In general, the chance of further spread beyond West Africa is small, Vespignani says, but the risk grows with the scale of the epidemic.
Ghana, the United Kingdom, and the United States are among the countries most likely to have an introduced case, according to the model.
(Excerpt) Read more at shtfplan.com ...
Thanks for the ping. I would rather be informed than not. I can make my own choices accordingly. It is better to be prepared and nothing happen than not be prepared and the unthinkable happen.
sneaks
I’m not sure how prepping will help with an Ebola outbreak. If it’s passed through the air and I come into contact with someone who is infected, having staples in my barn will not help. Only good medical treatment will help and we’ve already seen one American leave the hospital after surviving the virus. Americans aren’t going to run into safe rooms and panic rooms even if there were to be an Ebola outbreak. They will still go to work as they always did. On 9/11, my husband tried to get into NYC to go to work and I had to restrain him. That seems to be the American way. Maybe going through the AIDs crisis (when we certainly didn’t know how it was passed) and 9/11 personally and directly has made me more fatalistic.
Now let’s just agree to disagree on this subject.
While the body of your discussion is enlightening, I do not believe you have begun to disprove my hypothesis. The introductory claims above do not seem to be correct, and Ebola seems to be very, very like AIDS, except the rate approach to mortality. I believe quarantine could have been much more effective for AIDS, except for the single reason that we would not reject the squalling of sodomites.
Here's a quick summary behind what I say:
From "TKH Virology Notes: Ebola"(click here):
*********beginning of excerpt""""""""""""
Also known as: Green monkey fever
Description. An acute, infectious, hemorrhagic viral fever. . . .
Vector. . . . Secondary spread of the disease is via contact with infected persons or contact with blood, secretions, or excretions of infected persons. However, contact between viremic persons results in infection rates of approximately 10% ---such contact is not an efficient form of viral transmission. Infection via contact during the incubation period is rare. In contrast, nosocomial transmission is extremely dangerous. In all epidemics, nosocomial transmission, via contaminated syringes or needles, was responsible for a significant number of deaths.
In a small number of cases of the Zaire and Sudan strains, patients did not have contact with the blood or body fluids of other viremic patients. In these few cases, it is possible that the patients contracted the virus via aerosol transmission. Although the Zaire and Sudan strains are not usually passed from human to human by aerosol, the Reston strain is transmitted via small-particle aerosol between monkeys and from monkeys to humans. In addition, Ebola Zaire and Marburg virus have been isolated from the alveoli of infected monkeys.
Viruses can persist in injection equipment, multidose medicine vials, or in dried material. The virus can also continue to be shed in the patient's semen for 3 or 4 months after symptoms disappear. In one case, the virus was isolated from the anterior chamber fluid of a uveitis patient.
*********end of excerpt*********
(My underline for emphasis)
A 25-day quarantine is not sufficiently long enough. Six months in medically unbroachable facilities would be appropriate, prepaid by the entrant before boarding a US-bound flight carrying US citizens, the quarantine beginning on the aircraft.The plan you suppose is full of holes, and does not account at all of the deliberate transmission of the disease through open borders. Do recall the methods utilized by immigration authorities in the early 1900s.
I'm with you. I'd rather be loaded for bear and find out that scritching noise was a mouse than be loaded for mouse when the bear comes along.
Forewarned is forearmed.
So what is Europe and England doing about this? They are if anything more at risk.
This kind of scenario is exactly why you don’t let non citizens flood the country. If panic begins who is to stop the unscreened illegals from looting and killing. They are unknown entities.
And that is EXACTLY why it spread. Researchers who have written books on this admit to that. The fact of having multiple sex partners in one night is pretty nuts, and we keep pushing the loose sex horsesh*t whether it be male or female.
Good because there are a lot of other things to be worried about that are really a problem here. I’m not going to get panic stricken over Ebola until its a real problem.
Why isn’t the CDC stopping flights in and out of Ebola Zones? Do they want the high drama of the disease here?
The concept of having sex (or even kissing) with one partner not quarantined while testing negative for AIDS or ebola is nuts. Even cohabiting with a flirty wife is a bit chancy, eh?
That statement is kind of a minimization. The Reston strain of Ebola, which is one of 5 strains, is for sure airborne. Luckily it doesn't seem to cause any symptoms in humans or else we likely would have been wiped out by now here in the US.
That being said basically the entire book about ebola is being rewritten right now in West Africa. It is mutating and evolving. I'm guessing that it's only a matter of time before one become truly airborne. As it is a sneeze or being in the same room with someone is enough to get sick. The driver of a car that took one medical victim to the hospital got sick and died. That's just a matter of breathing the same air and/or touching something that the original victim touched. Ebola isn't hard to get at all.
This was sent by the Director, CDC, to every hospital in CONUS.
Also announced from US Department of State Potential Implications for Travel Because of Ebola in Parts of West Africa
If you are traveling abroad either to or thru the affected region, or anywhere else really, you may be required to undergo health screenings, be forced into quarantine or even restricted from traveling (Translation: DETAINED) for up to 21 days, depending on the nature of the immediate threat or the decision of the foreign health agency.
But no, there's nothing wrong, kids, it's all tabloid headlines - go back to watching the Kardashians...
The monkey facility in Reston where the virus was first noticed was not very clean. The monkeys that got sick in the second room in the facility could have been exposed through fomites.
That being said basically the entire book about ebola is being rewritten right now in West Africa. It is mutating and evolving. I'm guessing that it's only a matter of time before one become truly airborne. As it is a sneeze or being in the same room with someone is enough to get sick. The driver of a car that took one medical victim to the hospital got sick and died. That's just a matter of breathing the same air and/or touching something that the original victim touched. Ebola isn't hard to get at all.
This is consistent with droplet and/or fomite transmission. For Ebola to become truly airborne, it would have to evolve certain characteristics, and I do not know if it has that capability. You will not get Ebola by being on the other side of the room from someone sick with Ebola--although that is sufficient to catch airborne diseases.
It's for sure airborne. Read any account. They dissected the lungs of infected monkeys and saw that the lung material was infected with the "budding" virus...in other words, it was budding and releasing the virus into the airway.
Hardly anonymous Lady, I’ve been here awhile and actually HAVE a page.
The point was, make your POINT, and quit with the same tune again, and again, and AGAIN.
Alright it sounds like tabloid, Kart admitted that, BUT what if it winds up being true?
You know what I admire about Southern Women? They say whats got to be said and then GO ON to another point.
Guess your Mama didn’t teach you that.
I've been reading a lot of research articles, and have found no definitive evidence of aerosolization of Ebola Reston from the lungs. Some studies did find virus in the lungs--for instance, in the alveolar spaces, which this abstract said was consistent with droplet (not aerosol) transmission. (I cannot read the entire article since it is behind a paywall.) The mechanisms for forming droplets are different than for forming aerosols.
By comparison, influenza virus aerosolizes from cells of the upper respiratory system, like in the bronchia and throat. Avian influenza viruses are not contagious (or are minimally contagious) because they are limited to cells of the lower lungs, where aerosols are not generated.
http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimates_2009_h1n1.htm
60.8 million 12,469 deaths you do the math, but that isn’t anywhere near 60%.
I don't quite get your point? H1N1 is not avian flu, it is swine flu, and its fatality rate is fairly low, as we expect with highly transmissible viruses. Avian flu (H5N1) is not contagious, and has around 60% fatality. Avian flu H7N9 has about 20% fatality, according to the WHO, and is suspected of limited human to human transmission.
Ebola cannot really be compared to influenza. It attacks different cell types and the virus is structurally different. In general, factors that make a virus highly lethal limit it from being highly contagious.
You’re a complete ass who has now shown up a day later to insult because you don’t have an argument. And I have to laugh at you, of all people, accusing others of not knowing how to drop a subject.
And, indeed, I still think you’re an anonymous creep! I don’t go around snooping on other people’s pages so I’m not aware of your fame on FR.
H5N1 is a highly pathogenic avian (bird) flu virus that has caused serious outbreaks in domestic poultry in parts of Asia and the Middle East. Highly pathogenic refers to the virus’s ability to produce disease. Although H5N1 does not usually infect humans, nearly 650 cases of human cases of H5N1 have been reported from 15 countries since 2003.
http://www.flu.gov/about_the_flu/h5n1/
650 H5N1 deaths in a period of 12 years? Ebola has killed 1552 so far this year and is still spreading.
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/guinea/
I still say do the math.
The high path and low path designations typically refer to the ability of an avian flu virus to cause disease in birds, not humans. Most avian influenzas, whether high or low path, do not cause disease in humans at all.
H5N1 causes severe disease in humans, but is minimally contagious--that is, it does not pass from person to person. The reason for both the severity of disease and the lack of human to human infectivity is that this virus binds to cell surface receptors that exist in bird guts and deep in human lungs. The inflammation of deep lung tissues sometimes has fatal consequence, but the virus cannot escape the lower lung spaces. Controversial research carried out independently by Fouchier and by Kawaoka showed that 5 mutations in H5N1--4 in the hemagglutinin, one in the viral polymerase--will cause it to switch from infecting the lower lungs to binding cells in the upper respiratory tract (bronchia, throat). This causes the virus to be highly contagious, but will also (most likely) decrease disease severity. The fear that causes health organizations to continue to watch this virus is that it will undergo those mutations in the wild and cause a pandemic. Even with a decreased death rate due to the different area of infection, it could still have a very high death rate. The 1918 flu had about a 1-2% case fatality rate--enough to kill millions. Contagious influenza viruses can spread through aerosols, and are contagious in the absence of symptoms.
The spread of Ebola is not caused by any virus changes, and we have no reason to think that the virus is even capable of changing to a form that could be spread by aerosolization from upper respiratory tissues. The spread is caused by human behavior--for instance, by people getting sick and hiding, while infecting their caregivers through exposing them to highly infectious fluids. Burial customs that involve washing corpses, giving them enemas, and handling them during funerals also spread Ebola. Since human behavior, not virus biology, is really responsible for the spread of Ebola, there is no reason to think that it will become a local epidemic, much less a pandemic.
For perspective, over 600,000 African children die from malaria every year. About 5,000 people in that part of Africa die from Lassa fever every year--in fact, the reason it took so long to recognize the Ebola outbreak was that Lassa is a hemorrhagic fever with symptoms very like Ebola. Only about 1% of those who get Lassa die. There are many other diseases, far more prevalent in that part of the world, that cause many more deaths annually than have died from Ebola since this outbreak started.
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