Posted on 09/09/2013 9:29:10 AM PDT by whitedog57
House prices generally fall from about August until March every year. Except for 2012-2013. House prices rose from August to March … and then picked up the spring/summer trend of growth.
Here is the Case-Shiller 20 metro index non seasonally adjusted.
csnsass
The CoreLogic Loan Performance index shows the same pattern.
loanhp090913
So, is this recent change in the house price regime sustainable? No, unless investors keep pouring in from foreign lands.
1. Home affordability is falling. The NAR’s Homebuyer Affordabilty index is dropping as house prices boom and mortgage rates continue to rise.
homeaffordhop
2. Real Median Household Income Continues To Weaken. Not a good sign for a housing recovery, unless it is rental property.
household-income-monthly-median-growth-since-2000
3. Mortgage Purchase Applications remain stagnant and in the “zona de la muerte.” Or for you gringos, zone of the dead.
mbaplt
4. Employment to Population Ratio at 58.6%. Also. not a good sign for a non-investor housing recovery.
emppoprat
Say, the fizzling employment to population ratio looks like the MBA Purchase Application index!
empopombapurch
But never fear, the Federal Home Loan Bank has announced that it plans to become issue of Ginnie-Mae guaranteed securities created out of mortgages originated by member banks.
Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago plans to become issuer of Ginnie Mae-guaranteed securities created out mortgages originated by member institutions, according to an e-mailed statement today. • Serving as conduit “removes hurdles low-volume originators face” • Addition to Mortgage Partnership Finance (MPF) program, managed by FHLB of Chicago • Will start with members in Illinois, Wisc., be rolled out more broadly next year. • NOTE: With MPF Xtra product, since 2008, FHLB members sell loans through FHLBs to Fannie Mae. FHLB of Seattle became 8th FHLB to offer Xtra product to members, according to July statement.
Could it be that FHA lenders are getting scared?
Oh good, more government intervention in mortgage and housing markets.
pg44-boredom-getty
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