We are missing one key future issue. There will come the 2020 and 2030 Census.
We can already gauge that California, New York, and at least four rust-belt states will show a loss of population by 2020. Even the more wealthy of Americans will come to agree that neither New York or California are worth all the hassle and taxation. Who gains? Florida, Georgia, Texas. Figure ten more Representatives going to those three and maybe another five southern states. You can guess the loser of the states.
But the trend is in full-gear...so the 2030 Census....a good seventeen years away, will end becoming a fascinating and huge change for the nation. California will be lucky to have forty (presently at 53), and New York will have to fight to keep at least twenty. Texas ought to be bumping up against forty-five (presently at 32).
All of this means that the needy states, that bankrupted themselves over and over, will be fairly desperate for federal programs to cover their promises. The southern states in power by 2030...won’t agree to that. Figure some massive anger and hostility across California, and a increasing number of New Yorkers finally deciding to leave and find a safe lifestyle in the south.
Those of us around still in 2030 will be amused by the changes, and laughing over idiot political pits that various communities have fallen into. Companies were drawn like magnets....to cheaper lifestyles in the southern states, with fewer taxes, and common sense values.
Atlanta as a new urban magnet is beginning to show some old city cracks in the facade. I suspect Georgia will begin to slow as a result. I do know that the Raleigh metro area in NC is projected to gain a million in population over the next decade or so, and it’s not just Chamber Of Commerce pap either. Driving through there is like time travel back to 2007 for us in the Greensboro area. Construction galore, new houses, new shopping complexes, new highways. Suburban Apex and certainly Cary are almost unrecognizable.
NYC has just hit an all-time population high. It is rusted out Upstate NY that can’t handle the taxes that the state’s liberal voters have strapped it with.
Sounds good!
AZ added two seats this time around and both went to Democrats. FL is now a purple state and will go blue. Demography is destiny.
There is implicit in your thinking that there will not be serious disruption and burning and rioting in the northern cities in the next 7 years
Don’t get too excited. How many of those moving to the “Sun Belt” will bring their politics with them? I.e., will the dozen new TX Congressional Districts be liberal Dem? I won’t be around to find out. Good luck to those who will be here.