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Tim Duy, prof @ Univ Oregon Dept Economics.

Also read the response from Edward Lambert at link.

1 posted on 03/22/2013 6:34:04 AM PDT by Sir Napsalot
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To: Sir Napsalot
The Recovery is Real

"Recession is when your neighbor loses his job, depression is when you lose your job, and recovery is when Carter loses his." - Ronald Reagan.

"Recession is when your neighbor loses his job, depression is when you lose your job, and recovery is when Obama loses his." - Me.

2 posted on 03/22/2013 6:38:32 AM PDT by PapaNew
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To: Sir Napsalot

I thought all the charts were predicting the opposite. Anyone’s thoughts on this?


3 posted on 03/22/2013 6:43:45 AM PDT by MNDude (I survived the sequester!)
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To: Sir Napsalot
But "stay" until some point after the Federal Reserve begins to raise interest rates, which I don't expect until 2015.

Just so long as we continue with QE-infinity, we will be fine.
Just so long as we pump $85B of fake money into the system every month, we will be fine.

If the day ever comes when we stop propping up the edifice, then the "recovery" will end.

Kind of stating the obvious, eh?

4 posted on 03/22/2013 6:45:31 AM PDT by ClearCase_guy (The ballot box is a sham. Nothing will change until after the war.)
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To: Sir Napsalot

Charts like this can be found all over describing conditions during the Great Depression. Prosperity was just around the corner and New Deal supporters had the facts and charts to prove it!


6 posted on 03/22/2013 6:59:57 AM PDT by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: Sir Napsalot

... just as “real” as an aquarium sitting in your family room is a “real” tropical lake.


7 posted on 03/22/2013 7:01:40 AM PDT by aMorePerfectUnion (Gone rogue, gone Galt, gone international, gone independent. Gone.)
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To: Sir Napsalot
Until the economy outgrows the extra deficit spending by Washington, it's all smoke and mirrors. The economy is growing because we're borrowing money to hand out to get people to spend. Why is food spending up? Inflation and a massive expansion of food stamps. Why is manufacturing up? Because of massive purchases by the federal government.

In 2008, federal deficit spending (excluding interest and other borrowing, just budgeted deficit spending) was under 4%. Today, it is 9% of the gross domestic product of the US. Does the GDP grow by 9% a year? No? Has it even grown by 5% a year?

Without that extra deficit spending, the US economy would have retracted year after year since Obama took office. And any economics professor who excludes deficit spending from the calculations of a ‘recovery’ is purposefully lying, covering up facts to prop up their claims.

8 posted on 03/22/2013 7:03:59 AM PDT by kingu (Everything starts with slashing the size and scope of the federal government.)
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To: Sir Napsalot

It’s about as real as the president. A recovery manufactured through the printing of money is no recovery at all. It’s a temporary hold-over, that leaves you in a worse state afterwards. Just ask Zimbabwe.


9 posted on 03/22/2013 7:05:45 AM PDT by Viennacon
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To: Sir Napsalot
Whatever "resiliency" the economy is exhibiting is not the result of anything Big Bro is doing, it is DESPITE what Big Bro is doing to it.

That is probably more disheartening to those who want to destory America than it is to those of us who love it.

10 posted on 03/22/2013 7:07:47 AM PDT by Texas Eagle (If it wasn't for double-standards, Liberals would have no standards at all -- Texas Eagle)
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To: All
The “retail and food service sales excluding autos and gas” chart and the ‘weak consumer confidence’ go hand in hand, which prof Duy did not really address.

Also the financial crisis in Asia Duy used in this article, “The Fed eased into the crisis, mitigating its impact”, all that margin had been used up.

We had Schumer’s and Pelosi’s daily decry Bush's ‘Jobless Recovery’ to propel Dems control into Congress, except now the ‘recovery numbers’ under Obama were far worse than Bush's 8 years.

And the economics professor wants public to turn “Sunny & Happy Face” that “(quote) a US recession in the next three years should be pretty far down on your list of concerns (unquote)”.

The take home lesson from reading this article is that 'Don't trust you facts and gut feelings. Nothing to worry about, move along."

11 posted on 03/22/2013 7:14:01 AM PDT by Sir Napsalot (Pravda + Useful Idiots = CCCP; JournOList + Useful Idiots = DopeyChangey!)
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To: Sir Napsalot

The Ministry of Propaganda has spoken.


13 posted on 03/22/2013 7:17:52 AM PDT by dfwgator
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To: Sir Napsalot

Those look just like a guns and ammo boom!


14 posted on 03/22/2013 7:19:07 AM PDT by US_MilitaryRules (Unnngh! To many PDS people!)
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To: Sir Napsalot
People are so used to all the interference from the FED and government they can't tell when an economy is on life support.

When the economy DOESN'T need $85 billion a month to prop it up, then we might talk about a recovery. Just imagine if QE stopped today. What would be the result? Why would the economy collapse if we are on solid footing now? Why must we retain zero to low interest rates forever? What will happen when interest rates get to 4%?

If any of these questions get you to reality, then maybe you will see how absurd it is to say we are recovering.

A few more,.....How many people were working in 2008? How many now? Why did the last unemployment rate lower to 7.7%? Were part of the new employees due to ObamaCare causing people to work less than 30 hours a week? Does a rising stock market mean the economy is getting better, or that business is making more doing less? Can you claim recovery with 43 million on food stamps?

15 posted on 03/22/2013 7:19:08 AM PDT by chuckles
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To: Sir Napsalot

The data has shown that a recovery has been truly ongoing since early 2012. Most people here don’t want to see it because they think Obama will get the credit. Facts are that the recovery, such that it is, is extremely weak by historical standards and that is because of Obama’s policies. They are restricting the growth we would otherwise be seeing. 1-2% GDP is a recovery but it’s a poor one. I’ve posted the industrial production chart a number of times along with the facts on housing. That we are at 917K housing starts (SAAR for February) when 2009-2011 were around 600K is a heck of an improvement. Home inventories are way down even compared to historical levels. We are not out of the woods and any sort of external shock could tip us over the edge. But it is undeniable if you look at the data that the economy is in recovery.


16 posted on 03/22/2013 7:24:07 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
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To: Sir Napsalot

It’s only here until the government runs out of money. Then the whole house of cards comes down.


17 posted on 03/22/2013 7:25:12 AM PDT by Dead Corpse (I will not comply.)
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To: Sir Napsalot
The Recovery is Real

So is Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny.

18 posted on 03/22/2013 7:25:25 AM PDT by dfwgator
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To: Sir Napsalot

This is laughable. Things are stagnant at best. We have record numbers of umemployment, people on food stamps, and 8.5 million less people working than we did before Obama took office.


46 posted on 03/22/2013 12:36:51 PM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: Sir Napsalot

In order to generate phony economic growth and to “pay” our country’s debts in the most dishonest manner possible, the Federal Reserve is 100% committed to the destruction of the dollar. Anyone with wealth in the U.S. dollar should be concerned that economic leadership is firmly in the hands of irresponsible bureaucrats who are committed to an ivory tower version of reality that bears no resemblance to the world as it really is.


53 posted on 03/22/2013 1:55:18 PM PDT by wolfman
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