Posted on 11/01/2012 6:43:40 AM PDT by whitedog57
According to ADP, private sector employment increased by 158,000 jobs in October. This beat expectations of 131,000 but is lower than the previous reading of 158,000 (which has been revised downwards to 114,000 which was actually 88,000). This is the most jobs added in eight months.
This is especially welcome news after the ADP revision showed that since February 2012, 402,000 fewer jobs were created than previously thought.
ADP wanted to be more consistent with BLS for employment numbers, so the downward revision that makes this week’s increase look even higher is indeed consistent with BLS.
Meanwhile, Challenger US Job Cuts Announcements rose to 11.6% YoY in October after a prior reading of 70.8% in September.
Initial jobless claims came in at 363,000, lower than the expectation of 370,000. This is down 9,000 from the previous week. It is down from the prior week’s reading of 369,000 which was revised upwards to 372,000. Jobless claims are back to February 2012 levels, not much progress.
Flash PMI was just released and it has dropped to 51.0. Bad trend.
So, ADP shows a large increase after a major downward revision, and initial jobless claims show a decline after a revision upwards.
(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.wordpress.com ...
Listen, people should just ignore the ADP numbers. Investment pro’s do.
They hardly move the market at all, because they’ve shown little to no useful predictive skill of anything macro-economic. Their methodology is so wrought with error and selection bias that the numbers oscillate wildly from month to month, and have little correlation with the BLS numbers.
Hardly great numbers but I think they have been improving all year. The biggest number I am worried about it that almighty unemployment rate. It cannot go below 7.8 because that is what the unemployment rate was when he started and we cannot give him 5 days of “see it is down from when I started”...
We created 162,000 jobs in September, THE MOST IN SEVEN MONTHS!!!!!
...oops we really only created 88,000...
WE CREATED 151,000 JOBS IN OCTOBER, THE MOST IN EIGHT MONTHS!!!!
The day after the election -- ...oops...
Why doesn’t someone fire all these prognosticators because each month they prove that they do not know what they are doing?
:: This is especially welcome news after the ADP revision showed that since February 2012, 402,000 fewer jobs were created than previously thought. ::
So, will BLS revisit the Unemployment Index and revise it upward in those months since February?
Bueller? Bueller?
As Mitt said at the Al Smith Dinner, Obama’s new slogan, “You’re better off now than you were four weeks ago.”
It would be nice to actually hire people that can do math in this positions. If I submit work that constantly needs correction, I would be fired for cause.
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