And this is why the talking point of Nate Silver and the rest of how Zero can win the electoral vote and lose the popular vote because he’s doing “well” in Ohio is a bunch of nonsense.
If he’s losing the popular vote by 3-4 points, then even if he squeaks by in Ohio he’s bleed support elsewhere, and clearly it appears to be Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Michigan, and Oregon. Holding on in Ohio means nothing if he loses even 2 of those states.
He will not win the electoral vote if he loses the popular vote by 3 or more points.
He will probably not win the electoral vote if he loses the popular vote by 1 or more points, and surely not by 2 or more. The polls are definitely out of synch with each other solely based on the expected partisan turnout. Karl Rove, Gallup,and Rasmussen vs. Nate Silver, PPP, and CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac, etc.