[LS]

And this debate is about exactly that: what percentage of the "indies" are really "unaffiliated Ds" that just didn't vote in the last election and therefore are automatically called "unaffiliated."

I tried to examine this as follows: I looked at the decline in "Us" in key counties from 08 to 12. With the exceptions I note, all counties saw both parties decline, but Ds more as a percent:

Cuyahoga -16% (Both Ds and Rs gained, but Rs gained net 3000 more)

Erie -10%

Franklin -24%

Green +10%

Hamilton +.02%

Lake -32%

Lucas -19%

Montgomery -27% (Rs gained 5000 over 08)

Now, maybe someone with better understanding of some of these counties can jump in, but on the surface, the notion that the Us are simply Ds who didn't vote in the primary doesn't seem to stand up. If they are, the Ds really LOST FAR MORE than what we've thought. A couple of red counties---Green and Hamilton---actually gained Us while losing Ds, suggesting (but not proving) a shift out of the D party and into R status because they don't like the Ds.

[carton253]

I read these threads and I get the sense that people think that Ohio is some sort of unique state in its voting habits. It has never been that. What it is a mirror of the nation. That’s why it always votes for the eventual winnner. So if Romney is up 51/46 nationwide...he is up 51/46 in Ohio regardless of what the pollsters are saying right now. What do you think?