[carton253]

I read these threads and I get the sense that people think that Ohio is some sort of unique state in its voting habits. It has never been that. What it is a mirror of the nation. That’s why it always votes for the eventual winnner. So if Romney is up 51/46 nationwide...he is up 51/46 in Ohio regardless of what the pollsters are saying right now. What do you think?

[LS]

1) The absentee data remains constant with a 5 to 25 point GOP gain over 08 in almost every county. 2) the evidence from Adrian Gray's bellwether counties show a slight R lead in early votes. But evidence from all counties shows Ds way down in early voting. 3) the local evidence is that the Ds are a fraction of what they had in 08. 4) almost every poll shows Romney with a small to very large Indy lead.

All this adds up to a solid 3- 4-point R win.