Gravis Ohio Poll: R 46%, 0 45% (LV)

Gravis ^

[Arthurio]

Summary Results

Party	Percent of total
Democrat	36.4%
Other	33.1%
Republican	30.5%
Race
White	80.1%
African American	13.3%
Other	6.6%
Religious affiliation
Protestant/Other Christian	52.1%
Catholic	22.6%
Not affiliated	18.0%
Muslim	4.5%
Jewish	2.8%
Age group
18-29	13.1%
30-49	39.6%
50-64	30.4%
65+	16.9%
Gender
Men	48.6%
Female	51.4%
President
Romney	45.9%
Obama	45.1%
Other	9.0%
Approve of Obama's job performance?
Disapprove	48.8%
Approve	41.4%
Other	9.8%
U.S. headed in right direction?
Wrong	48.9%
Right	38.9%
Other	12.2%
Gov. Kasich's job performance?
Positive	41.7%
Negative	31.5%
Other	26.7%

Survey Questions

1.  Are you registered to vote?  (Yes, No)

2.  How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential elections? (Very likely, somewhat likely, Not likely)

3. In which party are you either registered to vote or do you consider yourself a member of? (Democrat, Republican, independent or minority party)

4. What race do you identify yourself as? (White/Caucasian, African-American, Hispanic, Asian, Other)

5. Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation? (Roman Catholic, Protestant/other non-denominational Christian, Jewish, Muslim, Other/no affiliation)

6. How old are you? (18-29, 30-39, 41-49, Over 50)

7. What is your Gender? (Male, Female)

8.  If the election were held today for President, whom would you vote for?

9. Do you approve of Barack Obama’s general performance as president? (Approve, Disapprove, Unsure)

10. If you had $1 million that needed to be managed, who would you trust more to manage?

11. Do you think the United States is headed in the right direction? 

12. How would you rate Governor Kasich’s job performance? (positive, negative, unsure)

Note: the statistical methodology comprised weighing various demographic categories for anticipated voting proportions for the 2012 General Election. 

The poll was conducted by automated telephone of registered voters in the state of Ohio.  

Posted by

Doug Kaplan

[Parley Baer]

Wow! And even with this.

Democrat 36.4%
Other 33.1%
Republican 30.5

[Perdogg]

ping

[thepatriot1]

Wow....huge!! +6 DEM Starting to feel it !!!

[Charles Henrickson]

Here is my prediction: If Romney wins Ohio, he wins the election. If Romney loses Ohio, he loses the election. I would not say that about any other state.

[Tennessee Nana]

No mormons in this survey...

I wonder how many will break rank and vote for Obama...

In 2007 Willard told us that several top mormon leaders were Liberal Democrats...

Do they have to vote for Willard or will they vote for the Democrat as usual ???

[NoobRep]

Ohio was 39D and 32R in 2008.

[Perdogg]

Dude, this is an old poll.

[WashingtonSource]

How so? The date of its release is October 11 on the Gravis website. Is two days ago now an “old” poll?

[BlueStateRightist]

Who are the 9% “other” and how will they break on Nov 6?

[BlueStateRightist]

Who are the 9% “other” and how will they break on Nov 6?

[Perdogg]

In terms of polls, yes.

[comebacknewt]

Outstanding.

Gravis polls have tended to favor the GOP a bit, but the sample of +6 RAT is very encouraging. I take that as an absolute worse case for Ohio this year.

Hopefully, we’ll have a couple of other pollsters confirm the Romney lead in Ohio very shortly.

[God luvs America]

praying Romney can continue to close the deal on Tuesday!!

[LS]

Yeah, this is still a significant oversample of Dems, at least by 3. Romney closing in on 50.

[AU72]

If Romney wins Ohio, he wins the election. If Romney loses Ohio, he loses the election.

I think your right, if he doesn't win Ohio he is not likely to pull off the 3 battleground state combo shot needed to get to 270, but if he does get Ohio he might run the table on IA, WI, MI and maybe even PA.

[thepatriot1]

The one bad looking poll is the NBC Marist poll where Obama is up 6% in Ohio....it oversampled Dems +11. How in the world can they justify that. If they used a proper sample it would be +3 Romney.

Will be interesting to see if Obama overcompensates on Tuesday. The GOP better have their strategy thought out and be ready for anything. I don’t think they were ready for Biden to act like such an ass on Thurs. Ryan should have called him out but he held his toungue for some reason. He should have said “Mr Vice President, is the situation in Iran funny???”

[fluffy]

I’d love to see the answers to #10, a well-phrased question IMO.

[LS]

And swung back huge in 2010, and absentees confirming more the 2010 turnout model than 08.

[NittanyLion]

He should have said “Mr Vice President, is the situation in Iran funny???”

I wish Ryan would have paused, glanced over with puzzled amusement and asked "Joe, are you feeling okay?"