[sam_paine]

Kindly try and pay attention rather than being a wet blanket, thank you.

Kindly try and acknowledge the difference between correlation and causation rather than totally disregarding statistics, thank you.

What happens in any one county does not necessarily predict what will happen overall. Keep your blankets dry, too!

[Cruising For Freedom]

I know my math pretty well. It’s my graduate degree and profession.

BTW, the numbers I was referring to were for the entire state, not for just one county.

Ravi/LS like to talk about about the county that is the equivalent of, say, Detroit, Philadelphia, or Seattle. In most states, almost all Ds come from one big blue pimple. If that pimple’s reduced in size significantly, then, yes, that portends to a big R victory.

There is nothing bad that can be spun out of these numbers, unless you wish to make a case of how the Independents might trend D or if a large percentage of those Republicans are from Operation Chaos.

[LS]

You are right and are even more dense, or you deliberately not reading, if you aren't getting this: IT IS ACROSS EVERY SIGLE COUNTY. No, one county cannot predict another but when ALL counties are showing similar percentage movement--- downward by Ds and way up for Rs --- then a sensible person would simply look at numbers and trends, which tell (SO FAR) an incredible story of polls being horribly off if they use anything short of a R+1 turnout (at minimum).

Now, I think relly that you are not dense but your prejudices are clouding your judgment. Comparing 2012 to 2008 shows so far a sea change in R and D turnout.