Posted on 09/11/2012 4:32:00 AM PDT by radioone
Pointing out the flaws in worthless polls would be a full-time job, if anyone were willing to undertake it. Today’s example comes from CNN and ORC. News organizations report on polls like this one as though they meant something; this one will be popular with media organizations because it shows President Obama with a six-point lead over Mitt Romney among likely voters. But a cursory review of the poll data shows that if it means anything at all, it is good news for Romney.
To begin with, the CNN/ORC poll follows on the heels of another survey by the same organizations two weeks earlier. The findings–based, obviously, on a small sample–suggest that four percent of voters changed their minds about the Democratic Party over the space of two weeks:
If the CNN/ORC poll contains any significant finding, it is this: independents favored Romney over Obama by 14%. That’s right, 14%:
Really, this whole exercise is getting tiresome. Yet one question remains: where is the poll that over-samples Republicans?
UPDATE: A commenter calculates:
to get to those totals the following breakdown works…
D – 38. I – 36. R – 26.
that’s D+12, right…
Why is anyone surprised at this? I am only shocked they have Obama up by just a few points. Look to see more in the future.
D+12????
This is serious con artist territory.
No Democrat ought to fell anything but annoyed that these press outlets are selling them a false narrative
Wow. Even allowing for some assignment to the Is, this is (obviously) a 10-point Dem over sample to get a 1-point lead for Zero? And Romney is the one in trouble?
The GOP has become Rove-ified, abandoning principles and leadership in favor of constantly shifting policy positions in the hope of picking up the odd 1-2% that is still well within margin of error.
The Dems obsess over polls because they lack principles and/or their true intentions would result in electoral washout. Populism is a soft name for lying.
Citing the Reagan comeback in terms of pure numbers overlooks one Everest-sized fact: his message of smaller government never wavered.
A set of values, a consistent message and a willingness to ignore the little waves in favor of the big electoral surf is a classic risk-reward proposition and the GOP crawl into a fetal position when risk is mentioned. GOP campaign types watch the same cable news rubbish but they, unfortunately, give the talking heads the exact response wanted and therefore increase the power of the talking heads.
These polls are being trumpeted to create the narrative, not to describe what is really happening.
Keep working daily to defeat Obama.
That is Job One.
We are winning but the media cannot allow that truth come out.
New ABC/Wa Po poll has Zero up 1 (49-48) with this split: D33 R23 I 37 (!!)”
That’s not a poll, that’s propaganda.
The classic definition of a "push poll".
That kind of manipulation means Romney is waaayyyyy up. Maybe 8-10.
My take is that these traitors in the msm are praying for Obama to clean Romney’s clock in the debates and then the wishful numbers become more of a reality. In the interim they want the Republicans dispirited and democrats motivated. In addition I see Romney drifting to the center and that makes me think his camp feels secure about the base vote. Meanwhile Obama’s camp is running to his base hard.
This is a dangerous game to play for the Dems. As the election draws nearer, the polling orgs. will have to reflect some sense of reality and project the true numbers, which will show Romney gaining momentum rapidly down the stretch, which will motivate the base and sway uncommitted voters.
My only question is why they bother including ANY Republicans in the sample? Think of the numbers they could conjure up for Obama THEN!
Pardon my ignorance, but is it possible these scewed polls can work to our favor?
1. By putting Obama ahead by such a wide margin, will Republicans be more encouraged to vote and Democrats more inclined to stay home because their vote is not needed?
2. With such a wide margin, would the Democrats be led to believe they need not make the effort to steal the election?
They really shouldn't be including Republicans in the sample at all.
Then the polls would show Obama CRUSHING Romney, right?
1. Yes.
2. No, because the insiders see the real-deal polls and they are understanding the need to double-cheat.
Regardless I’m seeing much better polls today, many a one point race.
Just asking a question here. I don’t believe the voter pool is only 23% republican. But are some of these pollsters claiming they randomize their method of contacting people, and then the party ID is whatever they happen to get from that “random” sample?
If so they can claim a clear conscience because, hey, that’s what people told us.
Or do they select the repub/ind/dem breakdown of their sample?
Keep up the fight Laz!
The other great thing about this WAPO poll release this morning is this blurb:
“Historically, candidates often get an immediate post-convention boost, with some of the shift dissipating quickly. Obama has a six-point edge among all voters based on interviews Friday, the day after the Democratic convention wrapped up. In interviews Saturday and Sunday, the two were about evenly matched among registered voters.”
Part of the reason is to demoralize Romney supporters and energize Obama supporters but they are also setting up the riots for when Romney wins by “obviously cheating” based on these polls.
It is heartbreaking to see what has happened to this country and the press in the name of liberal ‘progress.’
"Why, why, you've oversampled the R's...that's not fair, that's not accurate". "Yeah, so what's the problem? Haven't you been doing the exact same thing with the D's"?
It might not stop them from continuing to do it but it would give a lot of exposure to their 'thumb on the scale' methods.
If they were evenly matched among registered voters, then Romney leads among likely voters.
Here is the other thing - how are these polling outfits defining a likely voter? I submit that many who voted in 2008 are not likely to vote in 2012, and thus should not be counted as a “likely voter” simply because they voted in 2008.
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