"What If" hypothetical question for those who are familiar with world politics.

My Brain | August 24th, 2012 | America_Right

[America_Right]

Heya Freepers,

I have a problem. I started writing a book, and I am getting in over my head, here. I am at a point in the notes for the book where the Middle East is broke because oil is pretty much worthless.

Will the Mid East population roll over Europe? Will they get control of European nukes? Will they immediately use those nukes on Israel and the US? What would our reaction be? Would we defend ourselves or try to appease them with more Muslim outreach programs a la NASA? Would Russia and China help us?

Believe it or not, this is just the beginning of an epic sci-fi story. Politics is only important in the first part. With this in mind, I suppose I could take the story far enough into the future that current politics may not even be a factor, but it isn't as fun and poignant.

[brivette]

how about muslims vs. christians?

[saganite]

It’s a hypothetical in a book. Choose the path that gives your story the most leeway to expand on your ideas.

[America_Right]

Good point. However, I need it to be as realistic as possible. You should see all the research I am doing for the sci part of the sci-fi! I will have a PhD in physics before this is over.

[SampleMan]

If oil became worthless (hard to imagine), then much (but not all) of the middle east would fall into extreme poverty.

The rich would flee, the poor would starve. Their militaries would crumble from lack of foreign maintenance support (which is all that keeps them together).

The people would turn on each other and it would become one big Somalia.

Turkey or another Islamic power (not dependent on oil) might then step in to reconstruct the Caliphate over a weak and miserable population.

Of course, if the West didn’t close the door, they WOULD flood into Europe, trying to survive. What better target than the European welfare states.?

[x]

If there's a book in there, it's about how you get oil to be worthless and what the post-petroleum epoch would look like for us.

The political stuff is pretty stale and trashy in comparison.

[mnehring]

1. Start with the end in mind and work backwards as you outline. What is the big conclusion you want to have or lesson you want people to learn? How do events take you there?

2. Is there anything in past history that correlates to this? (Siege of Vienna comes to mind) History has a way of repeating itself.

[Happy Rain]

I suggest researching the Torah and Talmud

The Jews will determine the future of the Middle East because they may not be many but few of the civilized outnumber the many of the savage in our 21st Century technology world.

And if America can survive the Obama pathogen our world will abide for a little while longer.

[Jimmy Valentine]

There would of course be a revolt of the Muslim peoples in Europe. Then would begin the "reconquista" all over again, with gathering strengthing armies, some led by groups such as the Templars in Spain (yes they are still there but known as "The Order of Christ").

Fighting would push the Muslims back across the Medeteranean and all of the way back to Istanbul and beyond.

Istanbul would once again be called "Constantinople and become an international holy city like Jerusalem

You see?

[Disambiguator]

how about muslims vs. christians?

Or Muslims vs. Aliens?

[I see my hands]

Here you go!

[GenXteacher]

“What would our reaction be? Would we defend ourselves or try to appease them with more Muslim outreach programs a la NASA? Would Russia and China help us?”

The Democrats will immediately surrender and apologize, and the RINOs will send them a strongly worded letter. As for the Ivans and the Chicoms, they are not our friends, and will be glad to help- themselves, to whatever they can get, at our expense and that of others.

[verum ago]

Most likely in my mind is that there would mass revolutions and rioting etc in the Arab countries. An invasion of Europe would be unlikely, and would probably get stomped if it happened. It takes a lot to get the Europeans fighting, but they've got better equipment, training, and doctrine then the Arabs, and just as much spirit. The Europeans put up with too much sh*t from the Muslims, but an armed conflict is something they would fight tooth and claw. They'd probably also get US assistance in that sort of thing (NATO and common sense).

That said, Arab governments would try to invent external enemies to redirect their people's fury away from their own government. I can see Israel being attacked by say Syria and Egypt, plus maybe Lebanon and Jordan. That conflict would end up anyway is convenient for your book- anything from the Israelis crushing the Arabs, to a close conflict, to Israel being overrun. But I doubt any Israeli nukes would fall into foreign hands. Simply put, they'd use them before that happens.

Another possibility is Iran leading a war against the Saudis. There is (currently) no love lost between them, and it grates the the Iranians to no end that the Saudis have more economic/diplomatic clout than they do. Additionally, Iran is the de fact leader of Shi'a Islam, while the Saudis are the de facto leaders of Sunni Islam. Each would be happy to do away with the other, and the Iranians especially hate the the most important holy sites in Islam are in Saudi Arabia. Iraq (still a considerable military power in Middle East terms) would certainly end up on the Iranian side. I don't see the Saudis winning this one unless the US intervenes, and even then it might not be good enough.

So basically my uninformed guess is that:

1) A conflict involving Israel would be fairly likely. It's outcome is whatever you want it to be, but the only Israeli nukes that will fall into Arab hands will do so at 14,000 kts.

2) A Gulf conflict between Iran/Iraq and Saudi Arabia and the rump states, Shi'a Islam vs Sunni Islam. If the US intervenes the Saudis probably win, given sufficient buildup of US forces (and maybe British too), if not Iran/Iraq almost certainly wins. If Iran/Iraq win, the Iranians might try to establish a larger Islamic country spanning the mideast to China. Such a country could end up at war with India and Russia, maybe China too. If Pakistan joins Iran those conflicts could go nuclear, but the Islamic country would be the [relative] loser of a nuclear contest (I mean seriously, Russia India and China...). Russia could take some serious territorial losses however.

3) Overall the Arab states descend into the poverty, Sharia, and tribalism that defined them before they got rich off oil. Probably a good amount of Balkanization and border conflicts thrown in for good measure. A couple genocides here and there, especially of Jews, Christians, and other non-Muslims, and mass migrations of people between countries. I can see a mass exodus of people into Europe, and the Europeans deciding to shut immigration down.


Those're all my uninformed but good-for-fiction ideas :)

[Rightwing Conspiratr1]

how about muslims vs. christians?

Or Muslims vs. Aliens?

Let's play cowboys and muzzies.

[verum ago]

Let's play cowboys and muzzies.

Cover of that book would have a hangin' rope and a beheadin' scimitar lol

[98ZJ USMC]

If there’s a book in there, it’s about how you get oil to be worthless and what the post-petroleum epoch would look like for us.

---

Yeah, that’s what’s interesting me here. What technological game changer comes about to do that? If ME oil income plumments, they go back to the stone age and, as stated above, become nothing but a mass of Somalias. I, for one, would laugh long, often and hard.

[gilor]

So are the world’s tanks, planes and warships electric?

[America_Right]

Thanks! Your notes almost mirror mine. The only real difference is that I didn't take into account a real shooting war with Europe. I figured they would just roll over and invite immigrants from the Mid East with open arms in the name of diversity and fairness. They are already falling to Muslim immigration. In my story, it just happens faster. I (for now) have the US sitting it out and trying to appease Muslims with international welfare. However, this will not stop the bulk of the Mid East population from moving to a friendly Euro nation that will provide them with everything for doing nothing more than walking across their border.

If I used what you wrote, I would probably be hearing from Tom Clancy's lawyer. :)

[mamelukesabre]

If oil became worthless (hard to imagine)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Not really. However it would never become worth zero, just worth very little compared to today.

Advances and discoveries in natural gas and nuclear would do that very easily. If every country starts fracking for nat gas and starts building thorium reactors, the mid east would go broke very fast.

But over-run europe? no, europe would not allow that. They would over run africa first. Africa has raw materials and slave-like labor and lots of ground for farming. Africa would be the logical path for arab nations to save themselves from starvation. If there is to be a war as a result of the arabs becoming poor and going hungry, it will occur on the african continent.

[America_Right]

So are the world’s tanks, planes and warships electric?

Yes. And it is feasible, too, believe it or not.

Remember, this is sci-fi.