Mitt Romney and why the Virginia-Colorado scenario means his defeat

July 14, 2012 | techno

[techno]

Search around the internet and among most pundits you will find this conclusion:

Among sure blue states and blue states that lean blue President Obama now commands 247 electoral votes (EV) adjusted for the 2010 census.

These states include:

Hawaii (4)

Washington state (12)

Oregon (7)

California (55)

New Mexico (5)

Minnesota (10)

Wisconsin (10)

Michigan (16)

Illinois (20)

Pennsylvania (20)

New York State (29)

Delaware (3)

Maryland (10)

New Jersey (14)

Connecticut (7)

Rhode Island (4)

Massachusetts (11)

Vermont (3)

Maine (4)

DC (3)

Now Mitt Romney commands 180 EV adjusted for the 2010 census:

Alaska (3)

Idaho (4)

Montana (3)

Wyoming (3)

Utah (6)

Arizona (11)

Texas (38)

Oklahoma (7)

Kansas (6)

Nebraska (5)

South Dakota (3)

North Dakota (3)

Missouri (10)

Arkansas (6)

Louisiana (8)

Mississippi (6)

Alabama (9)

Georgia (16)

South Carolina (9)

West Virginia (5)

Kentucky (8)

Tennessee (11)

Now that accounts for 427 EV which leaves 111 EV outstanding.

Now here is how they break down:

a) 5 largest battleground states

Indiana (11)

Ohio (18)

Virginia (13)

North Carolina (15)

Florida (29)

Total 86 EV

And finally 4 smaller swing states:

Colorado (9)

Nevada (6)

Iowa (6)

New Hampshire (4)

Total 25 EV

Now here is how a lot of pundits see the 2012 election. Bottom line--Romney needs to win 4 of the 5 largest battleground states: Indiana appears to be in the bag, but he needs to win Florida for sure and 2 of 3 of Ohio, VA, and NC at a bare minimum to have any chance of becoming the president.

For example with the Goode candidacy putting Virginia in doubt for Romney if Romney were to win Indiana, Ohio, NC and Florida that would increase his total by 73 EV to 253 EV. He would therefore need 17 EV to eke out a bare victory.

Now why I call it the Virgina-Colorado scenario is if Romney loses Virginia he is then forced to win Colorado with its 9 EV and and 2 out of 3 of Iowa, Nevada and NH. In other words if Romney loses both Virginia and Colorado, Obama will be re-elected.

So this begs two questions:

a) What can Romney do to have any chance to win Virginia?

b) What can Romney do to have any chance of winning Colorado?

Imho, he needs to put a rock-ribbed conservative on the ticket who has the ability to "steal" Goode's conservative support away from him. Otherwise he has to pray Goode doesn't get the 10,000 required signatures to get on the ballot or Goode dies of a heart attack.

As for Colorado, he needs to put on the ticket a westerner with either libertarian or Hispanic ties at a minimum or a rock-ribbed conservative to win over evangelical voters in Colorado. A cushy safe moderate won't cut it in CO or VA.

And conservatives, I think you have to start asking yourself this question: Do you really want to go into the election with a candidate as flawed as Romney or failing that don't you think it would be in your best interests to demand Romney put a rock-ribbed conservative on the ticket to at least to give him a shot at either Virginia or Colorado or both?

[Ann Archy]

Obama is going to wipe out COLLEGE LOAN DEBT and even the most conservative PARENT will vote for him, 20 pieces of silver, ya know.....it’s going to be PATHETIC.

[Godebert]

"And conservatives, I think you have to start asking yourself this question: Do you really want to go into the election with a candidate as flawed as Romney or failing that don't you think it would be in your best interests to demand Romney put a rock-ribbed conservative on the ticket to at least to give him a shot at either Virginia or Colorado or both?"

As Conservatives, I think you have to start asking yourself this question:

Why would you vote for a political party that cast aside it's oath to protect and defend the Constitution of the United Sates of America, and stood by silently as a criminal Usurper was installed as commander-in-chief?

[Diogenesis]

Let us agree to NEVER FORGET WHO helped Obama win.

The PERPS are Team Romney and the vicious bastard backstabbers
who idolize him and pimp his socialized medicine, TARP, taxes,
global warming love, and falsely proclaim them to be 'conservative'.

---

"Peeking Out From the McCain Wreckage: Mitt Romney"

"Someone's got to say it: IS MITT ROMNEY RESPONSIBLE FOR OBAMA'S VICTORY?"

"Vanity: Team Romney Sabotaged Palin and Continuing to Do So?"

"Romney Supporters Trashing Palin"

"Romney advisors sniping at Palin?"

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[SoFloFreeper]

Obamugabe cannot count for certain on Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, or Michigan this time around, imo.

[arderkrag]

HA! Touche!